Did The US Treasury Yield Curve Predict Trump’s Victory? Mortgage Rates Rising With Rising 10Y Treasury Yield

by

by confoundedinterest17

Put it where you want it. Trump that is!

The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y CMT) went negative on April 1, 2024. And remains positive.

The US Treasury 10Y-2Y CMT (constant maturity Treasury) peaked locally on March 29, 2024 and then fell, eventually turning negative on April 1, 2024. And remained negative until August 30, 2024 just prior to the election. It looks like the yield curve accurately predicted the election of Trump.

The 10-year Treasury yield is rising with a positive economic outlook under Trump. And with that optimism we see mortgage rates rising too.

The market is feeling comfortable under Trump. Not Harris.

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