Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Trump’s threats of bombing Iran back to the stone age continues. But the impact on Treasury yields is interesting. As the US economy continues to grow, the US Treasury curve takes on the familiar upward slope. With rising long rates. Particularly when compared to the negative humped yield curve of a year ago. …
by confoundedinterest17 Good news! Consumer prices rose only 3% YoY. Lower than the growth in M2 Money of 4.66% YoY and Federal government spending of 7.8% YoY. While consumer prices rose only 3% YoY, housing (shelter) rose 3.65 YoY. The US Treasury yield curve remains upward sloping from 2Y-30Y.
by confoundedinterest17 Participants in the mortgage market are hoping for relief in the mortgage market when The Fed lowers rates tomorrow. But the reality is the the bond market is expecting declining short-term rates, but not much change at the 10-year tenor. Mortgage rates have fallen since October 23, 2023 as the yield curve has …
Watch closely when #VIX specs short $VIX in size as the $markets are rising. Previous two episodes of large VIX selling over the past year ended with the $SPX correcting… and this time the VIX action has been extreme.h/t @themarketear pic.twitter.com/SHZw8BZPzz — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 27, 2025 The 2-10 curve is at its steepest …
The 10Y–3M yield curve remains inverted, but the downtrend has been grinding sideways just below neutral (-0.07%) We've seen this movie before — summer 2023 and 2024 both saw similar counter-trend rallies that kept risk-on flows alive… until the uptrend resumed. Remember: it’s… pic.twitter.com/8ztD0Xinmm — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 8, 2025 Japanese 30 …
The Trump-Bessent Treasury is not calling it yield curve control, but the structure is already in motion. No formal announcement. No coordination with the Fed. Just a sequence of moves that point in one direction. The long end of the curve is being starved. The short end is being flooded with T-bills. The Fed is …
by confoundedinterest17 I’ll feel a whole lot better when CMBS office serious delinquenies get below 10%. But serious delinquencies on office space is currently at 10.59%. The US Treasury yield curve is steepening. Office delinquencies are likely to rise in Los Angeles as Governor Newsom sits on his greasy hands as LA burns.
🚨The US job market is deteriorating: Long-term unemployment hit 1.67 MILLION in April, the highest in 3 YEARS. The share of individuals unemployed for more than 27 weeks of total unemployment hit 23.5%, the highest in 3 years. This has never occurred outside of recessions. pic.twitter.com/wLh8mDxEDN — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 5, 2025 🚨 …
by confoundedinterest17 The good news? The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is normalizing to January 2022 levels. One the mortgage side, adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) share is the highest since the financial crisis (2008). As Trump continues to stand up for Americans and China (and Democrats) continues to fight, the S&P 500 index lags MSCI …
by Tough_Storage_848 Considered by the FEDs to be one of the most reliable recession indicators, the 10Y/3M yield curve just un-inverted on Apr 10, and nobody here seems to be noticing this. Historically, if 10Year yields < 3Month yields, an inverted yield curve, typically indicates imminent recession within 6 months. It has successfully predicted every US …
by confoundedinterest17 Was Freddie King correct? Is the US economy going down?? The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) has inverted to the positive side after a prolonged NEGATIVE inversion (from July 6, 2022 to Sept 5, 2024) marking the longest period of negative inversion since August 18, 1978 – May 1, 1980. Each negative inversion was …
Conference Board: the leading economic index rose in Nov for the 1st time in over 2 years and now no longer signals an impending recession; the increase (which immediately followed the presidential election) was driven mostly by surging equity prices: pic.twitter.com/xqKrZuBtvi — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 20, 2024 h/t mark000
by confoundedinterest17 Put it where you want it. Trump that is! The US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y CMT) went negative on April 1, 2024. And remains positive. The US Treasury 10Y-2Y CMT (constant maturity Treasury) peaked locally on March 29, 2024 and then fell, eventually turning negative on April 1, 2024. And remained negative until August …
Last time we had this combination, it wasn’t good for equities: 1- % YC un-inverting after reaching extreme levels 2- Monthly RSI > 70 Additionally, some valuation metrics are worse than they were in 2008. But maybe this time is different.. Last time we had this combination, it wasn't good for equities: 1- % YC …
by confoundedinterest17 Perhaps Harris/Walz should adopt the Imperial March from Star Wars as their theme song. Between Biden/Harris uncontrolled immigration disaster helping to destroy New York City, Harris’ statement that she won’t do anything differntly from Biden/Harris is alarming. The NY Empire survey crashed from +11.5 to -11.9 – the lowest since May. That is the biggest MoM drop …
2/ The yield curve just steepened by 1%, coming out of an inversion The last time we saw this was in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession pic.twitter.com/L2gzkGSCI8 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024 4/ So, where's the recession now? GDP growth in the US is still at a healthy 2% The job market remains …
by confoundedinterest17 Whenever the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope goes negative, it is following by positive slope … then recession. Like clockwork. Following every recession since the 1970s, the 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve slope has risen, then declined. This time around, the 10Y-2Y Treasury curve has remained negatively-slope long than usual suggesting a larger than …
Yes, and #silver went from under $9 to $48. https://t.co/2gXFTVqWHs — David Morgan (@silverguru22) September 19, 2024 The focus solely on the labor market was a BIG mistake — Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) September 18, 2024 Sorry, this is what they are calling normal? — GEO.P 🇺🇸 (@WhydaInsanity24) September 19, 2024
10-year Treasury yields being the highest relative to 2-year yields since 2022 indicates a widening gap. This is typically seen as a signal of improving economic conditions or inflationary pressures in the long term, as investors demand higher returns for holding longer-term bonds. Conversely, it can also suggest that the market expects economic challenges ahead, …
This yield curve inversion is WORSE than 1929 and 2008 Buckle up pic.twitter.com/u3GEu1woDQ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 5, 2024 🚨CRASH ALERT🚨 1929 VS 2024 Scary ? Don't be alarmed, it gets much worse. A complete financial cleansing is overdue. pic.twitter.com/Ml8ib4E891 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) September 4, 2024 The difference between Real GDP and …
Look at these two charts and explain to me how it is possible that "inflation expectations" (whatever the f*** those are) are under control? Americans earn fewer dollars than they have in 80 years, and their desire to hold those dollars is near an 80 year low. Jettison the… pic.twitter.com/v0DaECBLzY — Dr_Gingerballs (@Dr_Gingerballs) September 3, …
The inversion of the yield curve, particularly the 10-year versus 2-year yield, is often viewed as a signal of an impending economic crisis or recession. When the yield curve un-inverts, it can suggest a shift in market sentiment, potentially indicating that investors are more optimistic about future growth or that short-term rates are declining. AC
by confoundedinterest17 Pretty soon we will all be working for the government doing manual labor. Except for politicians and large donors, of course. On Tuesday, it was announced that Presidential candidate Kamala Harris would be supporting President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a 44.6% capital gains rate and a 25% tax on unrealized gains. Having …
Blue line marks 2Y10Y yield curve inversion bottom. Red line marks SPY correction bottom. White bar is constant period in between. The Labor market is telling us something. 👇🏼 Who’s listening? pic.twitter.com/oM1Gt8KUjL — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 14, 2024 h/t mrmrmrj
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is about to surpass the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, reversing the previous condition where the 2-year yield was higher than the 10-year yield. Implications: Economic Sentiment Shift: An inverted yield curve (where short-term yields are higher than long-term yields) often signals a lack of confidence in …
by confoundedinterest17 Shape of things. Thw Fed will likely cut rates shortly helping the flagging mortgage market The US Treasury yield curve, of Jay Powell and The Blackhearts, .js the least inverted in 2 years, signalling an impending Fed rate cut. The Fed loves manipulating interest rates!
We are now in the longest yield curve inversion on record without a recession. byu/nobjos inwallstreetbets
This means that the yield on the 2-year Treasury note is higher than that on the 10-year Treasury bond, which is unusual and often seen as a predictor of economic recession. An extended yield curve inversion suggests that investors expect slower economic growth and potentially lower interest rates in the future, indicating a lack of …
Japan's yield curve is going parabolic. As soon as they start dumping U.S. treasuries to prevent their currency from collapsing, the U.S. yield curve goes parabolic as well. https://t.co/L8TZwJ1fgM pic.twitter.com/z2Dt2sqk7q — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 2, 2024
