The Trump-Bessent Treasury is not calling it yield curve control, but the structure is already in motion. No formal announcement. No coordination with the Fed. Just a sequence of moves that point in one direction. The long end of the curve is being starved. The short end is being flooded with T-bills. The Fed is being leaned on. Companies are being warned not to raise prices. That’s the playbook. It’s not subtle.
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from 4.8% in January to 4.42% at the end of June. The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points since September 2024, but the curve didn’t respond until the Treasury shifted issuance. The White House is now focused on the 10-year benchmark. Scott Bessent said it directly in February: “He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that”.
🚨 The Trump–Bessent team is preparing a yield curve control regime without saying the words.
No coordination.
No inflation anchor.
Just bill issuance + Fed pressure + threats to producers.This is Activist Treasury 2.0 — and it’s dangerous.
🧵
— Craig Shapiro (@ces921) July 1, 2025
🚨 JUST IN – Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT on potentially becoming the Federal Reserve chairman next: "I will do what the president wants."
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) June 30, 2025
The dollar is down 10.4% year-to-date. That’s the worst first-half performance since the early 1970s. The euro is up 13.8% against the dollar. The yen gained 9%. Treasury auction demand is thinning. Foreign buyers are pulling back. The curve is steepening, but not from growth. From pressure.
The strategy is familiar. Nixon tried it in 1971. Wage and price controls. Gold window closed. Inflation suppressed by decree. It worked for 18 months. Then came the blowout. Stagflation. Bond market revolt. Oil shock. The echoes are loud.
Steve Miran and Scott Bessent warned against this exact setup in 2024. They called it “stealth QE” and “backdoor stimulus.” They said it would compress term premiums by 40 basis points, the equivalent of a full percentage point rate cut. Now they’re running the play.
The Fed is boxed in. If it cuts under pressure, it loses credibility. If it holds, it gets blamed for the slowdown. Either way, the curve steepens. Markets cheer. But the foundation weakens.
Trump has a history of threatening price setters. Oil companies in 2019. 3M in 2020. Airlines and grocers in 2024. Gas stations this year. “If you raise prices, we’ll come for you.” That’s not a policy. That’s a warning.
The risk is not that this fails. The risk is that it works. The curve bull-steepens. Asset prices rip. Inflation looks quiet. Then a shock hits. Oil. Geopolitics. Supply chain. And inflation explodes into a mispriced market. Scott Bessent is now being floated for Fed Chair. He said it himself: “I will do what the president wants.”
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