Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The Trump-Bessent Treasury is not calling it yield curve control, but the structure is already in motion. No formal announcement. No coordination with the Fed. Just a sequence of moves that point in one direction. The long end of the curve is being starved. The short end is being flooded with T-bills. The Fed is …
by confoundedinterest17 I’ll feel a whole lot better when CMBS office serious delinquenies get below 10%. But serious delinquencies on office space is currently at 10.59%. The US Treasury yield curve is steepening. Office delinquencies are likely to rise in Los Angeles as Governor Newsom sits on his greasy hands as LA burns.
🚨The US job market is deteriorating: Long-term unemployment hit 1.67 MILLION in April, the highest in 3 YEARS. The share of individuals unemployed for more than 27 weeks of total unemployment hit 23.5%, the highest in 3 years. This has never occurred outside of recessions. pic.twitter.com/wLh8mDxEDN — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 5, 2025 🚨 …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve reminds me of The Stones’ song “Tumbling Dice.” Why? The Fed can’t tell if inflation is cooling or re-accelerating. Hence, they are just rolling dice. Let’s start with mortgage rates, a critical component of the housing and CRE markets. Mortgage rates remain up 163% since 2021, not great for housing affordability. Despite …
The rapid steepening of the yield curve from inverted levels suggests an impending economic downturn. Caution: Yield curve has begun steepening rapidly from inverted levels This brings the economy closer to an economic downturn Buckle up pic.twitter.com/JfBgBxOZgq — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 29, 2023 BREAKING: Americans spent money at the fastest rate in nearly two …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! US Treasury yields are a runaway train. The 30-year Treasury yield is soaring and rose above 5% … again. First time since 2007, just before the financial crisis and The Great Recession. The 30Y-5Y yield curve is steepening.