2/ The yield curve just steepened by 1%, coming out of an inversion
The last time we saw this was in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession pic.twitter.com/L2gzkGSCI8
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024
4/ So, where's the recession now?
GDP growth in the US is still at a healthy 2%
The job market remains relatively strong
Even if you don’t trust government data, the stock market is near ATHs
These aren't signs that typically scream "recession" pic.twitter.com/RIFGzFMGQ2
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024
2/ As the yield curve steepens before a recession, jobless claims typically start rising
But recently, jobless claims have remained low, despite the yield curve steepening
That’s unusual… pic.twitter.com/cGGIqBSe1R
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024
2/ The yield curve just steepened by 1%, coming out of an inversion
Every time the curve steepens, it signals we’re either in a recession or near one, as seen in:
– 2020
– 2007
– 2001 pic.twitter.com/9TVE12kGFS— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024