A hub for independent voices and hard truths
American consumers have NEVER been this pessimistic about the economy: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8 in April, the lowest reading EVER in over 70 years of polling, with declines occurring across all income levels, ages, …
“US job growth in 2025 was the weakest outside recessions in two decades” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/8AwAHmx6Dc — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 11, 2026 ⚠️THIS IS INSANE: Private education and health services accounted for 780,000 of all jobs added over the …
🇺🇸 US nonfarm employment annual growth 1.1% YoY. This slowdown predicted the last 12 recessions! The only exception is 1952. Chart: @jimwpaulsen pic.twitter.com/vEooGZQlkT — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) June 7, 2025 The direct link: https://t.co/Y9z3nJKUHh — Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) June 6, …
by MonetaryCommentary When credit spreads surge and GDP contracts, the common interpretation is causality, though what’s more revealing is how the credit market prices risk before the economy acknowledges it. In pre-GFC regimes, the widening of corporate bond spreads was …
U.S. Profit Outlook is now the most unfavorable since November 2007 🚨 Anything interesting happen in 2008? 🤔👀 pic.twitter.com/NadMu4F7ps — Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2025 Wow, that’s a worse print than during the 2001 and 2009 recessions. It’s getting really …
Last time we had this combination, it wasn’t good for equities: 1- % YC un-inverting after reaching extreme levels 2- Monthly RSI > 70 Additionally, some valuation metrics are worse than they were in 2008. But maybe this time is …
The real economy is definitely not in good shape! Almost every time this ratio has crossed below the 4-year moving average, it has signaled either an ongoing recession or an impending one. Will be different now? pic.twitter.com/hu7259T8XN — Guilherme Tavares …
2/ The yield curve just steepened by 1%, coming out of an inversion The last time we saw this was in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession pic.twitter.com/L2gzkGSCI8 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024 4/ So, where's the recession now? …
As risk-off sentiment swept the globe on Wednesday and handed U.S. stocks their worst day since late 2022, the bond market was acting in a rather strange way. Shorter-term U.S. government debt rallied, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year yield to its …
When even the government has to cut staff, it’s a hard landing, folks. Government spending is usually what pulls us back OUT of recessions. (I guess, finally, we’re going to get some job numbers.) — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) July …
US labor market is only strong in the headlines: 1.5 million Americans lost their full-time job in just 6 months. Meanwhile, the BLS and Media Headlines: The US economy has been adding jobs for 40 straight months. Truly incredible.https://t.co/aBnhvZ4VI6 — …
Crickets sound around this all across FinTwit… 🦗🦗🦗 https://t.co/lO1isTZN07 — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) May 31, 2024 Recessions are contagions in a global economy. Because we buy and sell so much to one another. Who are the primary buyers of Hong …
by confoundedinterest17 Chicago Illinois used to be a shiny toy. Soft’ survey data has been a bloodbath this week with regional Fed surveys all slumping and this morning’s Chicago PMI uglier than all expectations. That smashed ‘hope’ – the spread …
The surge in Americans holding multiple jobs, surpassing recession levels, is a red flag for economic well-being. Despite government assurances of a soft landing, the reality is stark – many are compelled to juggle multiple jobs merely to make ends …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 The probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 56.2%. This means that there is a more than 50% chance that the economy will contract in the next year. The odds are highest in over 10 …
This is insane: never before have US job numbers been manipulated to this extent https://t.co/EOqooXZQFE pic.twitter.com/7Upe2kohYW — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2023 And there it is: celebrate the miracle of Bidenomics by working 2,3 or more jobs. The number of …
by B3stAuD1t0rofA11tiME Every American is technically insolvent when you factor in the National Debt That doesn’t even include unfunded liabilities like insolvent banks that will fail Sure it was smart when everyone refinanced and a great deal for the homeowner …
by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden, who has always been a compulsive liar but at least sounded cognicent, is now babbling and whispering that Bidenomics works. But for who? Clearly not for first time homebuyers or people looking to move. Bankrate’s 30-year …
BREAKING Teachers Federal Credit Union announcing new tightening on Auto loans. ~$9B credit union, major player in NY / NJ regions. Credit is getting tougher and tougher. pic.twitter.com/hTMdpDzFHL — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) September 29, 2023 Nearly 1,500 small businesses …
by confoundedinterest17 Danger Will Robinson! Danger! Median sales price of homes in the US sank by -7.4% in Q2 2023. This is particulary dangerous since it was the worst correction in home prices since two rather nasty recessions of 1970 and …
by uslvdslv Key Takeaways: 1) Seven of the last eight recessions have started within the +/-1 Sigma birthing zone, which we just entered on July 20th, 2023. The only recession that started outside of this zone did so less than …
Philly Fed manufacturing index below -25 has a 100% hit rate in leading to recessions since the 1970s We’ve already hit levels as deep as -31.3 this cycle pic.twitter.com/b0oZkiqicM — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 BREAKING: Philly Fed Manufacturing …
by sterk1984 I see so many articles, comments etc. proclaiming that it’s obvious that we aren’t going into a recession because the economy is doing so well and the unemployment rate is so low. Don’t recessions usually happen at the …
via Ronni Stoeferle It is considered the most anticipated recession of all time – the one looming in the US. And although countless indicators ranging from the yield curve, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) and PMIs to producer prices and international trade …
https://kingworldnews.com/the-world-is-about-to-see-serious-deflation-followed-by-massive-inflationary-money-printing/ Powell can re-define recessions with words, but despite his double speak, he too knows that a recession is already underway. As for recessions, the data is equally abundant that those rising rates tend to correlate directly with recessions, both …
