recessions,

Consumer pessimism at current levels last showed up during recessions like 2008 and the early 1980s. The gap between sentiment and economic data also looks like a typical pre-recession signal.

American consumers have NEVER been this pessimistic about the economy: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8 in April, the lowest reading EVER in over 70 years of polling, with declines occurring across all income levels, ages, and political affiliations. This comes as gasoline prices posted the largest monthly jump in pump …

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“US job growth in 2025 was the weakest outside recessions in two decades”

“US job growth in 2025 was the weakest outside recessions in two decades” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/8AwAHmx6Dc — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 11, 2026 ⚠️THIS IS INSANE: Private education and health services accounted for 780,000 of all jobs added over the last 12 months. Excluding these roles, the US economy LOST -350,000 jobs over the past …

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This slowdown predicted the last 12 recessions! The only exception is 1952. Can TACO or AI save it?

🇺🇸 US nonfarm employment annual growth 1.1% YoY. This slowdown predicted the last 12 recessions! The only exception is 1952. Chart: @jimwpaulsen pic.twitter.com/vEooGZQlkT — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) June 7, 2025 The direct link: https://t.co/Y9z3nJKUHh — Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) June 6, 2025 The main message from today's employment report is that the US labor market continues …

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Economic recessions and credit market stress

by MonetaryCommentary When credit spreads surge and GDP contracts, the common interpretation is causality, though what’s more revealing is how the credit market prices risk before the economy acknowledges it. In pre-GFC regimes, the widening of corporate bond spreads was tightly coupled with funding cost pressures and a hard pullback in credit availability. But, post-2008, …

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US profit outlook worst since november 2007. Empire State Survey worse print than 2001 and 2009 recessions

U.S. Profit Outlook is now the most unfavorable since November 2007 🚨 Anything interesting happen in 2008? 🤔👀 pic.twitter.com/NadMu4F7ps — Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2025 Wow, that’s a worse print than during the 2001 and 2009 recessions. It’s getting really more and more difficult to imagine how we can avoid a recession right now. pic.twitter.com/ycRrqfEVge …

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The economy’s in trouble; past signals show recessions follow when ratios drop below averages.

The real economy is definitely not in good shape! Almost every time this ratio has crossed below the 4-year moving average, it has signaled either an ongoing recession or an impending one. Will be different now? pic.twitter.com/hu7259T8XN — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) October 23, 2024 Said another way, S&P 500 SP500earnings estimates for 2025 have risen …

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Yield curve steepening historically signals recessions, yet markets often rise until the final moment. We’re in the “hot zone” for a recession

2/ The yield curve just steepened by 1%, coming out of an inversion The last time we saw this was in 2020 during the COVID-19 recession pic.twitter.com/L2gzkGSCI8 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 8, 2024 4/ So, where's the recession now? GDP growth in the US is still at a healthy 2% The job market remains …

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This bond-market signal of impending recessions went on a wild ride. Here’s its message.

As risk-off sentiment swept the globe on Wednesday and handed U.S. stocks their worst day since late 2022, the bond market was acting in a rather strange way. Shorter-term U.S. government debt rallied, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year yield to its lowest level in more than five months or almost 4.42%. Meanwhile, long-term Treasurys sold off, …

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When even the government has to cut staff, it’s a hard landing, folks. Government spending is usually what pulls us back OUT of recessions.

When even the government has to cut staff, it’s a hard landing, folks. Government spending is usually what pulls us back OUT of recessions. (I guess, finally, we’re going to get some job numbers.) — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) July 2, 2024 ISM: manufacturing sector contracts in Jun for 3rd month in a row, and …

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Indicator spikes precede recessions since ’95; job losses accelerate like Dot Com, Financial Crisis, Pandemic.

US labor market is only strong in the headlines: 1.5 million Americans lost their full-time job in just 6 months. Meanwhile, the BLS and Media Headlines: The US economy has been adding jobs for 40 straight months. Truly incredible.https://t.co/aBnhvZ4VI6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 18, 2024 Magic, pure magic pic.twitter.com/p914IlcsCP — Michael A. Arouet …

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Crickets sound around this all across FinTwit… Recessions are contagions in a global economy

Crickets sound around this all across FinTwit… 🦗🦗🦗 https://t.co/lO1isTZN07 — JustDario 🏊‍♂️ (@DarioCpx) May 31, 2024 Recessions are contagions in a global economy. Because we buy and sell so much to one another. Who are the primary buyers of Hong Kong products? That will tell you who’s already in recession. https://t.co/AJfk6kSlkV — Uncle Milty’s Ghost …

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Bidenomics Reality Check! Chicago Fed’s PMI Crashes To 41.4 (Usually Found In Recessions)

by confoundedinterest17 Chicago Illinois used to be a shiny toy. Soft’ survey data has been a bloodbath this week with regional Fed surveys all slumping and this morning’s Chicago PMI uglier than all expectations. That smashed ‘hope’ – the spread between hard and soft data – back to cycle lows… Source: Bloomberg Today’s Chicago PMI …

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Record Highs in Americans Holding Multiple Jobs, Surpassing Levels Seen in Past Recessions.

The surge in Americans holding multiple jobs, surpassing recession levels, is a red flag for economic well-being. Despite government assurances of a soft landing, the reality is stark – many are compelled to juggle multiple jobs merely to make ends meet. This disturbing trend, reaching heights not seen since past recession onsets in 2000, 2008, …

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Recessions are forbidden until after elections.

This is insane: never before have US job numbers been manipulated to this extent https://t.co/EOqooXZQFE pic.twitter.com/7Upe2kohYW — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2023 And there it is: celebrate the miracle of Bidenomics by working 2,3 or more jobs. The number of multiple jobholders just hit a record high pic.twitter.com/xDpQjX97sl — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2023

Bidenomics At Work! Mortgage Rates Hit Almost 8% (Highest Since July 2000 Under Bill Clinton), Deficits This High Usually Occur During Recessions And HIGH Unemployment

by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden, who has always been a compulsive liar but at least sounded cognicent, is now babbling and whispering that Bidenomics works. But for who? Clearly not for first time homebuyers or people looking to move. Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate is up to almost 8%, the highest since July 2000 and Willy Slick …

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Credit getting tighter. Just wait until the mass defaults begin….’Soft landing calls always precede recessions’

BREAKING Teachers Federal Credit Union announcing new tightening on Auto loans. ~$9B credit union, major player in NY / NJ regions. Credit is getting tougher and tougher. pic.twitter.com/hTMdpDzFHL — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) September 29, 2023 Nearly 1,500 small businesses filed for Subchapter V bankruptcy this year through Sept. 28, nearly as many as in …

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Danger Jay Powell! US Median Home Prices Crashed -7.4% In Q2, Worst Decline Since Recessions Of 1970 And 2008 (Higher Mortgage Rates + Tighter Mortgage Credit Box = Heartaches On Heartaches!)

by confoundedinterest17 Danger Will Robinson! Danger! Median sales price of homes in the US sank by -7.4% in Q2 2023. This is particulary dangerous since it was the worst correction in home prices since two rather nasty recessions of 1970 and 2008 (The Great Recession and financial crisis). This correction occured as M2 Money growth (green …

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Critical Recession Update: We Just Entered into the +/-1 Sigma Birthing Zone, the Cradle of Recessions (Key Takeaways Below)

by uslvdslv Key Takeaways: 1) Seven of the last eight recessions have started within the +/-1 Sigma birthing zone, which we just entered on July 20th, 2023. The only recession that started outside of this zone did so less than 3 months above this zone. 2) The projected start date of the next recession is …

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Philly Fed manufacturing index below -25 leads to recessions, reached -31.3 this cycle

Philly Fed manufacturing index below -25 has a 100% hit rate in leading to recessions since the 1970s We’ve already hit levels as deep as -31.3 this cycle pic.twitter.com/b0oZkiqicM — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 BREAKING: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes in below expectations Expected = -10.1 Actual = -13.5 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …

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Economic Strength and Recessions

by sterk1984 I see so many articles, comments etc. proclaiming that it’s obvious that we aren’t going into a recession because the economy is doing so well and the unemployment rate is so low. Don’t recessions usually happen at the END of economic cycles when the FED puts the brakes on because the economy is …

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Recession ante Portas: Which Assets Perform Well in Recessions?

via Ronni Stoeferle It is considered the most anticipated recession of all time – the one looming in the US. And although countless indicators ranging from the yield curve, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) and PMIs to producer prices and international trade volumes have been pointing to a recession for months, it has not yet materialized in …

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The S&P futures market is net-short approaching the levels of late 2007. Rising rates are linked to recessions, both soft and hard.

https://kingworldnews.com/the-world-is-about-to-see-serious-deflation-followed-by-massive-inflationary-money-printing/ Powell can re-define recessions with words, but despite his double speak, he too knows that a recession is already underway. As for recessions, the data is equally abundant that those rising rates tend to correlate directly with recessions, both soft and hard   Source: https://kingworldnews.com/the-world-is-about-to-see-serious-deflation-followed-by-massive-inflationary-money-printing/ h/t BoatSurfer600

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