Chicago Illinois used to be a shiny toy.
That smashed ‘hope’ – the spread between hard and soft data – back to cycle lows…
![](https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/bfm101B.jpg?itok=m92FenKo)
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s Chicago PMI plunged to 41.4 – its lowest since May 2023 – from 44.0 (and well below the expected bounce to 46.0)…
![](https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/bfmB92B.jpg?itok=PznPxee1)
Source: Bloomberg
That was below all analysts expectations for the second month in a row…
![](https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/bfm427C.jpg?itok=GTy8Ag6E)
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood was even more problematic:
- New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
- Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Supplier deliveries fell and a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Worse still, Prices paid rose again!
So, in summary: slower growth, declining production, shrinking orders, falling employment… and accelerating inflation – is it any wonder that ‘soft survey’ data is collapsing – not exactly election-winning headlines.
![](https://confoundedinterest.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/image-32.png?w=631)
Biden asking Zelenskyy for a loan so he can fix the bridge….
![](https://confoundedinterest.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/image-33.png?w=480)