🇺🇸 US nonfarm employment annual growth 1.1% YoY.
This slowdown predicted the last 12 recessions!
The only exception is 1952.
Chart: @jimwpaulsen pic.twitter.com/vEooGZQlkT
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) June 7, 2025
The direct link: https://t.co/Y9z3nJKUHh
— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) June 6, 2025
The main message from today's employment report is that the US labor market continues to cool at a fairly gentle pace. As the chart below shows, such cooling is typical in the lead up to recessions.
If Trump further dials back the tariffs and the bond market snoozes at the… pic.twitter.com/RyRK8o1tn6
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) June 6, 2025
Sat macro thoughts:
Weakening labor market.
Slower wage growth.
Slowing HH demand.Fed gov policy drag next 12m.
Immigration & tariffs hitting now.
BBB modest lift not till 2H26.
Fed on the sidelines.Long end near cyclical highs.
Stocks near highs.Can TACO or AI save it?
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) June 7, 2025