Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Anyone smart knew this SpaceX drop was coming. Regular people get wiped while insiders cashed out. 401ks got forced into this garbage so everyone’s retirement can get stolen. NVDA CDS looks like a straight short setup. The whole AI and Musk hype machine is just another rigged game for the connected few. Other than insiders, …
College became a participation trophy. More people get in so average drops hard. Employers already know degrees mean nothing now. Real skills and IQ tests would sort people faster than this broken paper chase. Source: Meta-analysis: on average, undergraduate students’ intelligence is merely average – ScienceOpen h/t bradnobred
I keep seeing people focus on one chart. The problem is there are now several of them pointing in the same direction. US margin debt just hit $1.4 trillion, equal to 6.2 percent of M2 money supply, almost matching the 6.3 percent peak reached during the Dot Com bubble. Semiconductor stocks relative to M2 are …
By Peter Reagan Public domain photo Human beings may be the most naturally argumentative species on the planet. If there is something that can be debated, someone will almost certainly take the opposite side. Sometimes those disagreements are minor and harmless. Other times, they involve major decisions that can affect families, businesses and entire communities. …
Empire State index dropping to 5.7. Growth momentum stalling. Factory orders cooling. Industrial supply chain problems getting bigger. Weekly work hours shrinking. Companies cutting production. Corporate profits hitting records. Average worker money buying less. Yield curve steepening dangerously. Recession conditions building. Hiring plans vanishing. Labor market hitting dead end. Official data hiding reality. Disconnect reaching …
Announced job cuts surged to highest level since pandemic Small firms that employ nearly half of private workers are pulling back hard Weakness is spreading fast from Main Street The US job market is showing further signs of weakness: Only 9% of small business owners said in May that they plan to hire over the …
Stocks sit broadly expensive speculative activity is rising and gains concentrate in fewer and fewer names. This is the precise froth that always precedes the brutal unwind. Goldman claims the 2026 World Cup will inject 40 thousand temporary jobs into US payrolls in June from hospitality retail and transport. Retail sales GDP and inflation get …
Wall Street crowd ignores the option data, pushes the nonstop rally story… Past patterns like this trigger sudden market drops, retail accounts take the pain… ⚠️THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE: ~24% of the S&P 500's top 100 stocks now have an inverted 3-month call skew, approaching the 25% peak seen during the 2021 meme stock frenzy. …
The Israeli PM told CBS he is ready to go back to war if nuclear goals aren’t met… Netanyahu claims the Iranian regime’s “days are numbered” regardless of any deal… Hezbollah and Israel are still exchanging fire despite the technical ceasefire… At least 51 people were killed in Israeli strikes across Lebanon in the last …
The European Central Bank held rates at 2.00% today but Christine Lagarde is already prepping the markets for a “Summer Hammer” in June… Euro-area GDP grew a dismal 0.1% in Q1, while energy-driven costs are pushing corporate selling price expectations to a staggering 3.5%… Central bankers are trapped by a “Stagflationary Nightmare,” the UK is …
"Consensus estimates from Bloomberg now project GDP at 2.28% and headline CPI inflation at 3% to end the year."@_JoshSchafer pic.twitter.com/iYvnlVhrO1 — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) April 8, 2026 🔴 Fed Minutes: Many participants saw risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid persistent oil price increase, which could call for rate hikes. — FinancialJuice …
Iran Military News ☫ @IranMilitaryEN Strategic Assessment: The intensification of blind US attacks, which in some cases target civilian infrastructure such as airplanes or wheat silos in remote cities and have also damaged Iran’s industrial infrastructure, along with successive covert messages to start diplomacy with Iran, all of which have been met with Iranian indifference, …
In case you haven't heard, the US and NATO are saying diddly squat about Ukraine's recent targeting of Russian oil and fertilizer facilities. That means they support fuel shortages and future food shortages. I wonder why? https://t.co/8UkSSmV122 — Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) March 29, 2026 BREAKING: Ukraine bombed Russia's 2nd largest oil refinery which produces jet …
Iran’s reportedly gearing up big time if the U.S. invades. They say they can send out over 1 million fighters, with more people signing up across the Basij, IRGC, and army. Also warning they’ll push back if the U.S. tries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while they keep it shut. Looks like they’re getting …
Oil prices fell more than 5% Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran are “in negotiations right now” and indicated Iran is keen to reach a peace agreement, despite the Islamic Republic denying any direct talks with the U.S. International benchmark Brent crude futures fell nearly 6% to $98.31 per barrel, …
March 20 (Reuters) – United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said on Friday the airline will cancel about 5% of this year’s planned flights in the short term, as jet fuel prices surge due to the Middle East conflict. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense …
Job creation in the US has slowed to essentially zero, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday as the Fed released its latest economic projections, which included slightly higher economic growth than previously projected and little change to the unemployment rate. Altogether, Powell said, central bankers see “a degree of stability” in the labor market. …
Every major correction on this chart started the same way. The Weekly 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA. 2022 Bear Market • Drop: -27% Market rallied… Then another correction • -10% Market rallied harder… Fast forward to now: Tariff Panic • Drop: -21% We rallied again… And the same weekly bearish cross just printed. …
We have now entered the rampant buffoonery phase of this war. However, it appears that both sides are looking for an offramp without admitting as much. Trump has punted the Strait of Hormuz crisis to the rest of the world and Iran has said they will allow the rest of the world to pass through …
Fear and Greed in Extreme Fear. Historically signals we're getting close to a short-term bounce. pic.twitter.com/tN4YpIHB0E — Tobias Carlisle (@Greenbackd) March 13, 2026 Tom Lee says the market will bottom this month. He also believes higher oil prices could actually be bullish for U.S. equities. If investors start worrying about slowing global growth, they may …
Hundreds and hundreds of ships. But they’re all in the wrong place. “Oh my goodness,” says Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, a maritime AI company, as she checks the live positions broadcast by commercial vessels in waters off Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. “I’m up to… 35 different clusters,” …
Several headlines sitting together right now point to a very uncomfortable possibility. Energy markets may be heading toward another shock. Officials are discussing the possibility of releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That reserve currently holds hundreds of millions of barrels and is meant for severe supply disruptions. The last major drawdown happened during …
Germany's Corporate Tax Collapse Signals Economic Crisis https://t.co/P5MebM5cf1 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 4, 2026 A recalibration of the welfare state to match economic realities will soon be unavoidable. Until then, the illusion of prosperity is kept alive by credit. What is to be expected now? The state will increasingly draw on citizens’ resources to close …
By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious metals and the overall economy. This week, we’ll cover: Gold moves back towards $5,300 as China manipulation narrative falls apart Eric Sprott’s $300 silver dream… or reality? Tokenized gold reached $5,500: the most interesting sleeper story? Gold is back above …
$SPX has been going nowhere for months. That's about to change. Price is tracing out a bearish B-Wave triangle. If not already complete, one more bounce into the Daily FVG at 6,883–6,915 and the triangle terminates. What follows is a sharp C-Wave decline to SPX 6,720-6500.… pic.twitter.com/4AEmMSJl7s — TRIGGER TRADES (@TriggerTrades) February 28, 2026 What …
Could this be the biggest nudge toward a postwar deal yet? There is no official statement yet from the Kremlin confirming that Putin has formally agreed to such guarantees in a signed deal. BREAKING: Putin willing to accept US security guarantees, says Ukraine, per The Sunday Times. — Leading Report (@LeadingReport) March 1, 2026 Putin …
First of all 540$ itself is a question mark — vg (@Gurumoorty) February 27, 2026
treasury notes performed very well in both instances pic.twitter.com/maLk8R0oMv — Matthew (@GoodTexture) February 23, 2026 Seasoned traders know what this means. The generals are starting to crumble. These aren’t high beta stocks. I’ve seen this movie a few times. It always plays out the same. 1Q 2000, 3Q 2007, 3Q 2015, & 4Q 2021 the …
Trump's administration is considering new national security tariffs on a half-dozen industries after a Supreme Court decision last week that invalidated many of his second-term levies, per WSJ. The new tariffs, to be issued under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962,… — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 24, 2026 HOUSE SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON SAID …
