Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The dwindling demand for oil-based lubricants, reaching its lowest point in over four decades, is a stark indicator of the challenges facing the manufacturing sector in the United States. This decline in demand is far from indicative of a ‘soft landing,’ and while circumstances may differ this time, historical data presents a concerning pattern. Over …
Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. have surged by 30% over the past year, signaling the end of the easy money era and a sobering wake-up call for companies. Good Morning Everyone! Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. rose by +30% over the past 12 months. "We're already on track to double the mega bankruptcies compared to …
The recent change in Jerome Powell’s approach is indeed noteworthy. Having refrained from criticizing Congress during the extensive $6 trillion COVID spending period, his newfound willingness to do so suggests a shift in tone and approach. 5 years late, Jerome Powell finally admits maybe federal spending is a problem. When your professional counterfeiter is worried …
from Joseph Brown: The Reverse Repo facility has seen $1 trillion drain out in just the last 6 months What happens when it runs out? Its important to remember what this account is for, and where this money came from in the first place 🧵👇🏼 When all the money printing started in 2020, this account …
by confoundedinterest17 So much for The Federal Reserve raising rates until it gets inflation to 2%. Yesterday, the left their target rate unchanged. But yesterday, The Fed released their dot project showing their target rate is expected to decline in 2024 and beyond. On the housing front, existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to …
The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising aggressively on the back of stronger-than-expected economic data This is a major headwind for equities pic.twitter.com/C0Xc2ZAf8x — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 14, 2023 https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1691087531813515264 #Bonds are starting to look bad… US Treasury term premia (black) are breaking higher and pushing 10y yields up (orange). This isn't good for …
by confoundedinterest17 Sweet Home Chicago? The Chicago Business barometer printed at 41.5, still in contraction as M2 Money growth evaporates. living la vida Biden! Meanwhile, the US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve remains inverted at -105 basis points.
via bloomberg: Gold edged higher as investors assessed increasing geopolitical uncertainty and recessionary signals. Bullion rose as much as 0.6% on Monday after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s extraordinary mutiny. Still, the upside for the haven was limited after Prigozhin suddenly halted his dramatic advance toward Moscow over the weekend.
