Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Someone bought $1,200,000 worth of $VIX 70 calls today For reference the $VIX has hit 70+ two times since its creation… 2008 & 2020 pic.twitter.com/9TvJ3Gs5CF — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) February 19, 2026 Listen, I get a lot of you think stocks only go up, but when the VIX1D is acting like this, it means …
This is a serious problem for the Mag 7. Share buybacks always put a floor on how low these stocks could drop. It gave their shares a steady bid every quarter How do their stocks stay valued at $4 trillion without the buybacks? Microsoft is already rolling over💀 https://t.co/dzFek20ChN — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) February 10, …
The market is junked up on margin debt and teetering like it did in 2000 and 2007, ready to implode on anyone dumb enough to stay in. The increase in #margin #debt has outpaced the rise in the #market, as leverage provides additional buying power. However, while the current level is elevated, it is now …
Everything’s lining up for a Q1 shock. THE YEN PARADOX 82,640 contracts betting against the yen. Second highest since July 2024. The Bank of Japan just confessed this morning they have barely begun. After hiking to a 30 YEAR HIGH at 0.75 percent, the yen did not strengthen. It collapsed to 157.77. Finance Minister Katayama …
🇯🇵 BOJ SIGNALS MORE PRESSUREBOJ: JAPAN YEN AT RISK 😱 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda says Japan’s underlying inflation is steadily accelerating toward the 2% target, driven by tighter labor markets & rising wages. Wages + prices are changing fast.More policy shifts coming. https://t.co/jNIMU8IBvo pic.twitter.com/NcJgmvI4kl — Money Ape (@TheMoneyApe) December 25, 2025
"Bravo Zulu. U.S. Navy forces in the Middle East are advancing warfighting capability in new ways, bringing more striking power from the sea and setting conditions for using innovation as a deterrent." – Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander https://t.co/TgQ4WLbph3 pic.twitter.com/WUiAVojTht — U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) December 18, 2025 Watch: US Naval Forces Now Have Suicide …
Gold is hovering near $4,400 while silver has cleared $60. Yet U.S. investors remain historically underweight in precious metals. Here’s why this price action isn’t a rally – but rather a fundamental reassessment of the price of risk… By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important developments in precious metals and …
GUESS WHO’S BACK? Kalshi now assigns a 43% probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, the highest level since the 2025 crisis. Goldman Sachs estimates a 40–50% risk, while JPMorgan puts the odds at 20–40% for a lapse in early 2026. Both firms say a short… pic.twitter.com/4AkcBdQhG8 — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December …
The U.S. Supreme Court is signaling support for President Donald Trump’s firing of independent agency board members, as the court’s conservative majority suggested it would overturn a 90-year-old decision that has limited this type of presidential power. (AP Video: Nathan Ellgren). The U.S. Supreme Court is signaling support for President Donald Trump’s firing of independent …
US leading economic indicators are still deteriorating: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is down to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has now declined for 4 consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims. …
Via International Man International Man: Gold has seen a dramatic rise recently. What do you think is driving this surge—inflation, geopolitical instability, loss of faith in fiat currency like the US dollar? Doug Casey: The answer is all of the above. First, inflation is not retail price rises, as most people think. The rise in prices is …
$VIX there will be news And VIX will see 28 Something nasty is coming 🩸$SPY $QQQ — 👁 (@Oculustrade) October 16, 2025 Premarket futures are up and trading green, but with the $VIX still above 20, this rally can’t be fully trusted. Our OptionEdge AI's Quant indicators have flipped to Neutral from Buy on $SPY, …
The law is breaking down and the streets are telling the truth. Chicago is not cooperating. The city is standing up to ICE. Officials are shielding migrants. They are defying federal agents and daring the government to do something about it. The New York Times reports it like it is a political story. But this …
Megyn Kelly is joined by Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, CEO of Los Angeles Times Media Group, to talk about Bari Weiss taking over as head of CBS News, the future of the media, and more.
Gold is exploding to new all-time highs. The media is finally paying attention. But ask yourself: is it too late to buy gold? Or are we just seeing the beginning of something far more seismic? Is the new bull market in gold and silver just getting started? In this compelling interview, Jim Puplava sits down …
The U.S. shutdown adds fresh strain to an already unstable economy marked by stagflation and global uncertainty. While policymakers gamble with the dollar’s future, Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com reveals the stakes are much higher than we realize… By Brandon Smith The U.S. economy has been experiencing what I would call a form of “stasis” for …
President Donald Trump is holding talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House and indicating the U.S. might soon lift its hold on advanced fighter jet sales to the NATO ally.
I lived 2000 bubble, 2008 bubble but this is by FAR the biggest of them all… this is the end of USA as u know it… they know whats coming thats why they are pumping with 0 fear of consequences of fraud being discover or corruption… they know why… take care https://t.co/ZfRgdJs2H5 — Templar (@GingkoPT) …
Less than 14bn$ of “cash on the sidelines” are left in the US. When this hits zero banks will start to borrow liquidity regularly from the FED REPO facility because there isn’t much left in the open market. The FED REPO is capped at 500bn$, let’s see how fast we will get there.. pic.twitter.com/ATLxRAzygT — …
https://twitter.com/RealMattCouch/status/1965895858819575888 https://twitter.com/uCntHndlThyTrth/status/1965918560196407598 🚨#BREAKING: Watch as newly footage shows what appears to be an unknown individual on the roof of the Losee Center at Utah Valley University moments before Charlie Kirk was shot. The shooter is still at large pic.twitter.com/TSuZnNItu6 — R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) September 10, 2025 Additional …
NATO did not act immediately. There was no formal Article 5, no joint statement. Poland could not wait. The drones were Shahed-136s, designed to explode on impact. Warsaw treated them as a real threat and struck first. The hesitation from the alliance shows how dangerous it is to wait. This was the first time a …
Liquidity can’t stop a business cycle that’s already turning. Weak growth is the warning shot before the crash. When the cycle breaks, stocks don’t get “saved.” They get crushed. "Liquidity cannot stand the turn of the Business Cycle" (no matter what liquiditist try to tell us). Recession is coming! And it will crush stocks. #BTC …
Housing is the foundation of the economy, and when it starts tipping downward, jobs, banks, and local economies feel it immediately. Hidden delinquencies in mortgages and corporate loans mean that a correction could hit like a hidden avalanche, catching lenders, investors, and homeowners off guard. This is a warning that the financial system may already …
Watch closely when #VIX specs short $VIX in size as the $markets are rising. Previous two episodes of large VIX selling over the past year ended with the $SPX correcting… and this time the VIX action has been extreme.h/t @themarketear pic.twitter.com/SHZw8BZPzz — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 27, 2025 The 2-10 curve is at its steepest …
Markets cheered, but the message was hawkish. Powell didn’t promise cuts. He didn’t hint at September. He made the Fed’s caution sound like reassurance. That’s not dovish. That’s tight policy, carefully cloaked. “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said. Stocks …
SPY’s up. But internals are cracking. RSI over 80. Stochastic signals stalling. Price action’s heavy. Hedge funds dumped $60B in index exposure last week. Retail’s still chasing. Fed’s rate cut already priced in. No upside surprise left. One of the most predictable U-turn points in the market is when the price approaches a previous all-time …
The Treasury quietly redesigned its bond strategy in plain sight. Scott Bessent said the Treasury has “a big toolkit” to stabilize markets if the Fed refuses to act.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-14/bessent-says-treasury-has-big-toolkit-if-needed-for-bond-market He also warned that yields have become too high: “It wouldn’t make sense for the government to ramp up sales of longer‑term securities given where yields are …
Here is a quick chart I mustered up today… The ‘1929 trendline’ it’s a seldom and scary situation! pic.twitter.com/RKKuuDqKEn — Beachside Bagholder (@dax_mccaskill) July 18, 2025 2008 vs. 2025 Overlaying gold prices for the same period is even scarier. The ingredients are present now; all that's needed is a catalyst. https://t.co/8r1GIWZ7ys pic.twitter.com/a38GnrtieH — The Great …
When a firm like BlackRock takes a hit of this size, it raises deeper questions: Who pulled the capital, and why? Was this a sovereign wealth fund reallocating for political or liquidity reasons? A pension plan de-risking into cash or private markets? Or a strategic exit tied to a shift in dollar exposure? In an …
Sales crash 12% as condo market sees 80% more sellers than buyers. BREAKING: The median US condo sale price declined -2.2% YoY in May, to $354,100, marking the second-largest decrease since at least 2012. The only time condo prices dropped by a larger amount was in April 2023, by -2.9%. Meanwhile, condo sales plunged -11.9% …