Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Tom Lee, Fundstrat head of research and CIO, joins CNBC’s ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss outlooks on Nvidia, whether there may be catalysts to the upside, and much more.
The U.S. economy is showing signs of strain that official headlines aren’t capturing. Despite stock market gains, underlying indicators suggest a slowdown. Labor market indicators are weakening. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28, 2025, were 227,980, a slight decrease from the previous week. However, continuing claims increased to 1,974,000, up from 1,937,000 …
Trump publicly saying US China has reached a deal and China will send as much rare earth as needed to US 1. China never confirmed that, only stated more details of the principle of agreement framework has been identified and China will approve “Qualified” applications according to the law (no military use rare earth has …
Markets hit weekly high right after Israel strike but low summer liquidity could trigger another brutal crash… Oil is pointing to a new global deflation. That I predict will be outside of central bank control aka. a mass deleveraging event. pic.twitter.com/Srkj9RtjbJ — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 24, 2025 Today was the biggest down day for oil …
The warning signs are never loud. They come in quietly, with subtle changes that most overlook. A company does not flip a switch and lay people off the next day. It builds toward it slowly. And for those paying attention, the shift is obvious. It begins with silence in the careers section. Jobs that were …
Trump this morning: "We of course support Israel, obviously and supported it like nobody has ever supported it." “Iran should have listened to me when I said – you know I gave them, I don’t know if you know but I gave them a 60-day warning and today is day 61." — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) …
A Bloomberg TV headline was warning that breadth is imploding on this rally. Why? Because hedge funds are piling back into mega cap Tech. Why? Because S&P momentum algos are manipulating the futures higher due to the collapsing VIX and mass complacency. Which I predict will… pic.twitter.com/6tdzLuAuVt — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 6, 2025 BofA’s Hartnett …
Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April. Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down $NVDA pic.twitter.com/NzCOvtlWvo — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) June 1, 2025 The unemployment rate for adults aged 22-27 is 5.3% vs the national rate of 4.2%. Historically it’s always …
‼️Has the AI arms race come near its end? Magnificent 7 excluding NVIDIA Free Cash Flow (FCF) declined 11% year-over-year in Q1 2025, the most since the 2022 bear market. The capacity for future investments is falling for the first time in 3 years. Is AI hype behind us? pic.twitter.com/ppir1IdzXr — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) …
JUST IN: 67% of US consumers now expect higher unemployment over the next 12 months, the highest since 2008. This percentage has more than doubled over the last 5 months. Currently, more Americans anticipate higher unemployment than during the 1981-82, 1990-1991, and 2001… pic.twitter.com/oAw2AOUJ6w — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 26, 2025 The best leading …
The math on home prices always ends up at the same place. A median home price around $280,000 This would mean home prices nationally fall $130,000 pic.twitter.com/QoGqNVIz8L — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 23, 2025 US housing crisis worsens Case Shiller index tops 300 prices jump 143% since 2011 Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman has pointed to …
More data: The NASDAQ appears to correlate roughly 70–80% with changes in the Fed’s discount window usage—markets tend to rise when liquidity rises and fall when it’s pulled back. pic.twitter.com/rjmIWWKCuW — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) May 22, 2025
Putin: “A decision has been made to create a security buffer zone along the border between Russia and Ukraine.” Putin later specified for which Russian regions a security buffer zone will be created. Ukrainian regions that Russian needs to control: – Kharkov – Sumy – Chernigov To protect the Russian regions: Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod …
In 2022, people watched prices surge and blamed gas stations and grocery stores. Today feels different. Prices are still high, but the real concern has shifted. The fear now is not about inflation today. It is about trust tomorrow. People are no longer just worried about paying more. They are starting to wonder whether the …
The UK "deal" announced yesterday largely had the same terms as on Liberation Day and the "Pause" – the 10% across the board remained largely in place.https://t.co/aFLgc18ZBO — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 9, 2025 As @petereharrell noted the other details were pretty irrelevant. UK steel exports to the US are ~0.5bln, the UK didnt give …
Chinese state media has said there would be “no harm” in holding trade talks with the Trump administration, indicating a softening of Beijing’s position as both sides look for a way out of their crushing tariff war. The gesture comes as Trump has indicated he hopes to negotiate over trade and as the fallout has …
In an ominous harbinger for the ISM manufacturing release later this week, the new order components of the regional Fed PMIs have collapsed deep into recessionary territory. pic.twitter.com/kjt4jiFGYQ — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) April 28, 2025 I speak with many CEOs who prefer not to have their names or companies mentioned, fearing how it could be …
🚨 SCOTT BESSENT: The tax bill is moving forward. It will give permanence to the 2017 tax cuts. President Trump is adding things for working Americans – no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, making autopayments deductible. pic.twitter.com/vWhrE7r0Ws — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 29, 2025 Bessent just now: We …
For at least 35 years, the monetary system has been telling us that the current era is coming to an end. That means a debt collapse, a currency collapse and a collapse of most bubble assets like stocks and property. THUS THE BIG SHORT! — Egon von Greyerz (@GoldSwitzerland) April 26, 2025 Quick reminder – …
M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of money in circulation Expanding M2 money supply = Increasing liquidity Contracting M2 money supply = Tightening liquidity — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 25, 2025 The NASDAQ Composite is up more than 1% for 4 straight days. In the past 30 …
BREAKING: TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT SAYS THE US SHOULD GET READY TO BRING DOWN TRADE TENSIONS WITH CHINA. – Speaking at a closed-door investor summit hosted by JPMorgan in Washington, D.C. – Bessent said the current tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and… pic.twitter.com/uYYe2B40dp — amit (@amitisinvesting) April 22, 2025
This is spot on. They NEVER truly reached restrictive levels and hot money has been allowed to slosh endlessly around the system particularly since COVID. Now Powell will be summarily dismissed in order to install an even greater Dovish lackey. — Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) April 21, 2025 Central banks are buying.China is buying.Insiders …
This sell-off is technical. Volume isn’t as heavy as it was during the prior weeks’ panic, suggesting this is more about a lack of conviction to buy rather than aggressive selling. What feels dull and uninteresting today could look appealing tomorrow — and once again, the retail… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 21, 2025 Today had …
This is a major signal. Homes sitting on the market for 47 days longest in 6 years isn’t just about high mortgage rates. It’s about liquidity freeze in the real economy. Buyers can’t afford to stretch, sellers don’t want to cut, and volume is collapsing as a result. This kind of… https://t.co/E8sPDxFwNH — EndGame Macro …
Gold is telling us that the USA will not pay its debts via taxation. It will pay them via the printing press. $8T of foreign held bonds needs to find an exit… https://t.co/Ozp6uopO8N — Kevin Bambrough (@BambroughKevin) April 16, 2025 The U.S. could risk default on its $36.6 trillion debt as early as August unless …
It’s now official. The euro has broken out above a key historical resistance level. FX trends often take time to develop, but once they do, they tend to persist for years. I expect this time to be no different, with the US dollar likely to weaken further against other… pic.twitter.com/KiCuLdQqcG — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) …
Powell may pretend he doesn't need to get involved, but the market is about to drag him in kicking and screaming pic.twitter.com/izA4VUQmQN — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 8, 2025 Junk bond yields going parabola https://t.co/LGDN6xHOiq pic.twitter.com/ILja6xLDGY — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 8, 2025 The crash that's now happening in the bond market has more dire …
CNBC White House signals tariffs are non-negotiable and here to stay. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 3, 2025 CNBC: " WH are not welcoming negotiations from other countries, they say if other countires reach out and offer to lower their tarrifs their ignoring the decades of trade barrieirs" they are not willing to lower these …
$SPY people believe that the 2007 Great Financial Crash was a large surprise (below) But it was anything but a surprise. The moving averages were textbook. Clear tests of support, followed by a rejection from below twice and then Lehmans collapsed. What sometimes clouds… pic.twitter.com/2LaGy1a0z3 — The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) April 2, 2025 Tech and …
🚨BREAKING: Short-Term Yield 📈: Financial Stress? A sharp 📈 in 3& 6-month yields signal financial strains, similar to the 2019 repo crisis causes: •Liquidity Strains: Banks/hedge funds may face overnight funding pressures •Hedge Fund Stress: Losses or margin calls driving pic.twitter.com/HvkMtQ7zzE — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) April 1, 2025 Why are the 3 and 6 …