Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Japan just did what everyone knew was coming. They offloaded US Treasuries to keep the yen from spiraling. It was inevitable. The interest rate gap between Japan and the US made the yen untradeable, and Tokyo had no choice but to act. But this is only the beginning. The real crisis starts when they run …
https://t.co/bcJr84FDqI — Kashyap Sriram (@kashyap286) March 27, 2025 It’s almost laughable how easy it is to see through CoreWeave’s charade. Emanuel hit the nail on the head when he called it an “egregiously overvalued pig in a poke.” And he’s right. Just look at the facts. Microsoft, the company responsible for a large chunk of …
Bitcoin is about to make a big move. And according to china liquidity injection, is to the downside. pic.twitter.com/lO5XrNFgR2 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) March 27, 2025 Bitcoin Mauling season on approach. pic.twitter.com/v1IkbAhCTz — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 26, 2025 Trying to pump bitcoin with rumours 😂😂 The cult is relentless. https://t.co/kAveiDRf5R — The Great …
It looks like a bull flag has formed in CDX HY spread. If that's the case, the real fun is about to start. pic.twitter.com/RuFD8oObMP — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) March 26, 2025 So far, the “buy the dip” behavior from retail is very similar to Q1 2022. The $SPX didn’t bottom until Q4 2022. $SPY …
Markets are hanging by a thread, and most don’t see it coming. High-yield corporate bond spreads just spiked 60 basis points in a month—hitting a six-month high. Investment-grade spreads aren’t far behind, climbing to their highest level since September. These are stress fractures in the system, warning signs that something is breaking. 🚨WARNING🚨 S&P500 2008 …
Scott Bessent on CNBC: “The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.” pic.twitter.com/jvWGeFQNCG — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 16, 2025 You gotta love this guy. Finally we have an adult in the room as Treasury Secretary pic.twitter.com/S3Cfo9iQZo — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March …
$SPY first-hour trading volume was notably high, with approximately 24 million shares exchanged. A similar pattern occurred on December 30, 2024, when SPY experienced a gap down at the open, followed by two consecutive green hourly candles, before declining further later in the session. This historical context suggests that despite initial buying interest, the market …
Interest rate futures now show a base case of Fed rate cuts being paused until June 2025. The decision to pause cuts appears to be largely uncontested by Fed officials. PCE inflation data Friday is huge. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 29, 2025
by PrestigiousCat969 Nasdaq 100 Index has nearly doubled since the start of 2023. It’s has gone 467 sessions trading above its 200-day moving average — the second-longest streak since the index’s inception four decades ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge trades about 10% above that long-term support level, a signal of relative stability …
Over $30,000,000 worth of $MSTR ITM calls sold before close today Hindenburg Research closing shop the top signal for $SPY and Bitcoin? pic.twitter.com/fSZdQJCcSb — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) January 15, 2025
China 30 year continues to drift lower, yield 1.854%. Deflation and the lost decade are real possibilities. With over capacity in manufacturing it’s only a matter of time before deflation reached the west. pic.twitter.com/GUzESzA0QB — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) January 8, 2025 🚨DEFLATIONARY IS COMING TO CHINA🚨 China's economy has seen deflation for 6 STRAIGHT …
History suggests the recent uninversion of the 10y-2y chart portends a recession to begin soon…. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CyYI Rest of world going down fast as we speak. look under your desk. will drag US down. decoupling is fantasy. The government funded distractions always hit when they're about to crash markets — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 2, 2025 Locals …
Bellwethers. Large weekly topping formations depicted. pic.twitter.com/SkI4SUEnJj — The Great Martis (@great_martis) January 1, 2025 Santa Rally option skew through yesterday's close is the highest in history. As the algos maintain the illusion through year end. pic.twitter.com/hDWqahSbXe — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 31, 2024 $MEK.ax One of the cheapest Goldies on the ASX. Cup and Handle …
FED reassures the market that inflation is over by cutting rates.Bond market reassures FED that inflation ain't over. Shaping up to rival 73' -75' repeat. God help us all. pic.twitter.com/ZiKJ4qazxB — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 27, 2024 Yields will now keep rising until the equity market collapses. The die is set. — Uncle Milty’s …
NVIDIA is on the brink of a major reversal. The bearish divergence on the RSI highlights a severe loss of momentum, signaling exhaustion in the current uptrend. The price is poised to break down from the ascending channel, setting the stage for an epic crash. pic.twitter.com/Te5cZYp31s — The Macro Pulse (@TheMacroPulse) December 26, 2024
This is not looking good. MicroStrategy has a history of experiencing deep drawdowns when the RSI(14) monthly reaches extreme levels (above 80), followed by a negative month. Combine this with the speculative and euphoric momentum… pic.twitter.com/T7s3lqVSZ4 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) December 26, 2024 IRONY: bitcoin's fate now in the hands of a bunch of 'boomer' …
On a rolling ninety day basis, Momentum Tech and Bitcoins are 95% correlated, the highest in history. Which means that while gamblers are watching Bitcoins implode over the holiday, we can be 95% certain of what will happen the day after. pic.twitter.com/yLcy44LcyX — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 23, 2024 Bitcoin is not fungible and also likely …
It cannot also just be weird flows in thin markets currently. But I dislike when bond yields trade UP, when macro surprises are clearly SOFT — Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) December 23, 2024 Excellent read. Too many investors today have never lived through hard times or a recession thus their understanding of “risk” is completely …
Bitcoin is starting to breakdown versus gold. If it continues, it'll be the first time it's ever happened as Bitcoin versus gold tries to break above the previous cycle high. In other words, it shouldn't happen, and if it does, Bitcoin has a problem. pic.twitter.com/388oz1aQJu — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) December 22, 2024 Is the cattle ready …
Bitcoin Keeping it simple Below 96700 for more than 72 hours and its lights out. Either way, its lights out in the not to distant future. pic.twitter.com/COraOh44fL — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 21, 2024 will be zero soon https://t.co/1tVncx2mhD — Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) December 21, 2024 Who farted? Guess who's next? pic.twitter.com/9EbuQT0vKn — The …
My take is that 30yr mortgage is in a pause before heading higher. — Alistair (@kiwiangloameric) December 21, 2024 BREAKING: 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again, per Mortgage News Daily. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 21, 2024 $500 billion for 5 days? 🤨 https://t.co/RkcFxJ0OGq pic.twitter.com/NXfcFpSr3f — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024 Extremely …
If we are at the beginning or middle of a bull market like some here say, then why are there so few new public offerings? The lack of IPOs is one of the biggest tells that we are at the end of the cycle. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/GXkpY1AI1T — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) December 18, 2024 Dial …
Yields pre-warning that history is about to repeat. 1972 national debts 400million2024 national debt 35 trillion. How does a 10 to 15% mortgage rate look like today? pic.twitter.com/9Ki8eewmJb — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 15, 2024 If gold repeats 1970s parabola move. The largest bull market in history will be in gold. 200 $ up …
Highest ever! Renowned contrarians! (Not a precise timing indicator BUT almost always ends badly) Go figure….. US Consumer confidence about the 12m outlook for the US stock market pic.twitter.com/hGtFPqlOWG — Chris Watling (@LongviewEcon) December 3, 2024 Positioning on S&P 500 Is Very Extended pic.twitter.com/ZleRSyP4j3 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) December 3, 2024 Wall Street Short …
Start the deportations! pic.twitter.com/q2EF9Nd2Yh — Marc 🇺🇸 (@gopher_marc) December 3, 2024
#recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition https://t.co/vl8Sc7lSwq — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024 #recession … #GFC2 US edition https://t.co/5LZ6pkEmk0 — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 22, 2024 There is also a divergence between the SP500 and the HY Bond A-D Line. Read more about this topic from 2022 at https://t.co/x35ebJJ6Od. https://t.co/qmvpv2h4eH pic.twitter.com/EOTvWebFAU — Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) …
2/ Over the last 2 years, rates have risen from 0% to 5% at a very rapid pace pic.twitter.com/x4ZhknYJT2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 4/ According to the NBER, which officially defines recessions, 4 key metrics matter: – Unemployment– Personal income– GDP– Industrial production As of Q4 2024, none of these metrics indicate …
Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates set alarm bells ringing. Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but …
Yield erosion accelerates. Dow jones breaches 3 months trend line Nasdaq Double top . Semiconductors Down 13% from A/T high. Gold forewarning. Cattle misdirected with hope and bullish narrative. DXY up 5% from low. The $VIX forewarning. God bless and Godspeed. Yield erosion accelerates.Dow jones breaches 3 months trend lineNasdaq Double top .Semiconductors Down 13% …
The real economy is definitely not in good shape! Almost every time this ratio has crossed below the 4-year moving average, it has signaled either an ongoing recession or an impending one. Will be different now? pic.twitter.com/hu7259T8XN — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) October 23, 2024 Said another way, S&P 500 SP500earnings estimates for 2025 have risen …