The UK "deal" announced yesterday largely had the same terms as on Liberation Day and the "Pause" – the 10% across the board remained largely in place.https://t.co/aFLgc18ZBO
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 9, 2025
As @petereharrell noted the other details were pretty irrelevant. UK steel exports to the US are ~0.5bln, the UK didnt give on digital services takes (800mln/yr) and while ag access increased, its still subject to strict food safety standards unlikely to be met in large size. pic.twitter.com/e8jdbuXpOb
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 9, 2025
The overall impact on US tariff rates on foreign countries – a drop of 6bps.https://t.co/5J51rQVcbo
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 9, 2025
Shortly after the "deal" was announced, news broke (from the Post?!?) that the admin was considering dropping the tariff rate on Chinese goods from the current 145% to close to 50-60% with duties on neighboring countries at 25%.https://t.co/1qs5Y3LqFK
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 9, 2025
Even if the tariff rates settle at those levels they would likely create a substantial drag on economic conditions, effectively raising taxes on US HH and/or biz amounting to 1.5% of GDP depending on elasticities. pic.twitter.com/1OcmsmSGJ2
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 9, 2025
A rise in duties close to the campaign rhetoric of the 60% China / 10% others plan would create a substantial drag on the US economy.
Either that will need to be offset by cuts elsewhere or the path ahead is pretty clear that US HH and Biz will take a substantial hit ahead.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 9, 2025