US leading economic indicators hit lowest ratio since 2008, 4-year decline signals recession. Is this time different?

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US leading economic indicators are still deteriorating:

The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is down to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008.

This ratio has now declined for 4 consecutive years.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims.

Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures current economic conditions in real time, such as nonfarm payrolls.

Historically, in every case where this ratio has declined as sharply as it has now, the US economy was in a recession.

Non-asset owners are struggling.



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