Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Disruptions in the Strait and Mediterranean are ripple-effecting through global supply chains. Shipping costs for finished goods are up 15% compared to the start of the year. Large retailers are reporting inventory lags on seasonal imports. Insurance firms are quietly raising the ‘risk premium’ on all vessels in the region. The cost of this instability …
As Bitcoin struggles to climb out of its current funk, several indicators suggest any breach of the $60,000 level would unleash a fresh bout of extreme turbulence. The biggest cluster of bets in Bitcoin’s options market are contracts that pay off if the price falls below $60,000, according to data from Deribit. Just below that …
For $3.82, Chipotle is now selling high protein chicken cups, starting next Tuesday. No more indicators, the recession is here. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance
US leading economic indicators are still deteriorating: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is down to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has now declined for 4 consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims. …
This is one of the best indicators of impending economic disaster there is. pic.twitter.com/RSuCjIUFGT — David Pivtorak (@TheDavidPiv) October 19, 2025 Yes, in 2008. — David Pivtorak (@TheDavidPiv) October 20, 2025
During the GFC, we saw a noticeable crossover when part-time work increased and full-time work declined. Over the past year, we’re seeing a similar crossover slowly form. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/uez8lZaGWP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 10, 2025 Full-time workers -623KPart-time workers +33K — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 6, 2025 2/ The leading economic indicators (LEI) index …
The $VIX pulled back — but don’t mistake calm for safety. 🔹 RSI just hit a 6-week high🔹 Vol still trending higher since Dec lows🔹 Price holding above key support at 17.15🔹 VIX:VX futures price ratio still in caution zone Complacency is building fast. Every prior… pic.twitter.com/bhqn3IlIZP — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) June 3, …
US corporate profits just fell the most since the global financial crisis days ("GFC"). But, don't worry… all is well. pic.twitter.com/yTXi6TF7Sy — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) May 29, 2025 Leading Economic Indicators look at the future.Lagging Economic Indicators look at the past. When we divide the Leading Index by the Lagging Index, we get a series …
by RobertBartus “The index of prices paid by New York manufacturers jumped to 51 points in April, the highest since August 2022. At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing prices paid index rose to 51 points, the highest since July 2022. All while the Dallas and Kansas manufacturing prices paid surged to 48 points and …
It’s hard to get excited about the rally in equities when Dow Transports look like this. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/fVnd7juFbL — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 25, 2025 🚨US bankruptcies are rising as if there is a CRISIS: 188 US large companies declared bankruptcy in Q1 2025, the most in 15 YEARS. This is up 35% from …
I just want to reemphasize the significance of this chart… This is the banking cartel pulling the plug on the entire economy. It looks identical because it's all planned. https://t.co/i98krAwee8 pic.twitter.com/QbMuRHM7md — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 4, 2025 Ratio Chart – $SPY / $GLD The ratio is approaching 2.3, just like on October 22nd. The next …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, The smart money is selling, of course, for the clanging indicators are the dinner bell announcing the banquet of consequences has been served, and Nemesis doesn’t want the meal to get cold. Correspondent Wilson R. Logan kindly shared his list of 17 indicators of globally synchronized recession. In my view, each …
Gold’s warning signals are clear: a recession is imminent, regardless of the election outcome. With the unemployment chart showing concerning trends and the gold-to-silver ratio suggesting a pivotal moment for precious metals. Gold warned the cattle in 2007 and now it warns once again . Pay attention . pic.twitter.com/VhBnbkKIUv — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October …
https://twitter.com/GayBearRes/status/1833186306979205225 https://twitter.com/GayBearRes/status/1833188476163924221
by confoundedinterest17 That’s Biden/Harrisnomics! US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month – at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns… …and the head of The Conference Board says ‘nothing to see here’… “The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals …
BREAKING: US job postings declined 12.4% year-over-year to their lowest level since April 2021. Overall, US job postings are down by ~50% since their December 2021 record. However, nationwide job postings are still 11.7% above their pre-pandemic baseline, according to Indeed.… pic.twitter.com/ACKWXNMDvi — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 22, 2024 BREAKING: The US Treasury yield …
In the predawn darkness, the Houba labour market in Guiyang is a sea of construction helmets as day workers seek temporary jobs in the south-western Chinese city. But many of these so-called migrant workers, labourers who have left their homes in mostly rural areas to find jobs in the city, will leave disappointed. China’s property …
FURTHER INVESTIGATION REVEALS IBKR'S DERIVATIVE CLEARINGHOUSE, WHO HAS RECEIVED SWAP RELIEF IN THEIR FIRST WEEK OF OPERATION, OFFERS CONTRACTS RANGING FROM "LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS TO GLOBAL WEATHER OUTCOMES"⚠️ https://t.co/PR11z2gREE pic.twitter.com/EePn1XplD4 — M.B. (@741trey) July 13, 2024
We’re looking at multiple economic indicators like the yield curve and jobless claims to assess recession risks While an economic downturn is not here yet Risks of it are gradually increasing At this rate, we cannot rule out an H2 recession for sure — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 2, 2024 All the "job openings" were …
This is not looking good at all … Core PPI, which excludes energy costs, spiked by 6.1% annualized in April from March, seasonally adjusted, the biggest increase since July, also driven by the spike in services and made worse by the downward revision of the prior month.… pic.twitter.com/R8q0D3BNAr — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) May 14, …
Recent market trends, including declining oil prices and rolling Treasury yields, suggest a potential surge in the S&P 500, as observed historically. Bank of America specifically highlights the benign High Yield OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) as a supporting factor for a summer rally. Furthermore, indications such as the VIX (Volatility Index) being rebuffed at its downtrend …
Disconnect between Fed 🏛 & S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/V4HEctJ1O8 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 3, 2024 10 largest stocks trade at P/E of 26x vs. 47x at peak of DotCom pic.twitter.com/9K2BTuGSGm — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 3, 2024 A stark dissonance grips the financial markets as the gap between the Federal Fund Rate and …
by confoundedinterest17 That’s Bidenomics for you! The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in January, dropping 0.4% MoM (notably worse than the -0.1% MoM expectations), and December’s 0.1% declin e was revised down to a 0.2% decline. The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices (again) at +0.10 The biggest negative contributor was …
The probability of an outright contraction keeps getting higher and higher with each successive release. Ford projecting a *30%* decrease in commercial chassis orders: What this means: If you're ordering fewer chassis, you're likely producing fewer vehicles. But 30% is a big number. Image below is a layoff notice (WARN) filed by one of Ford's …
A recent Axios survey reveals a significant shift in economic priorities, with 88% of respondents emphasizing gas, groceries, and housing costs over stock market performance. Moreover, 37% rate their financial situation as poor, signaling widespread challenges. This data prompts a reevaluation of traditional economic indicators, urging a focus on the tangible, day-to-day impacts felt by …
The Federal Reserve finds itself in a bind, hesitant to acknowledge potential rate cuts in March due to concerns about the draining of reverse repo and the looming reserve constraint for small banks. The housing market, a reliable barometer of economic trends, is signaling a foreboding outlook for unemployment in 2024. Current market indicators, from …
By Graham Summers, MBA As I keep telling you, it IS possible to time the market. The key is to put in the work to do so. For me, one of the best means of predicting stock market moves is to focus on “market leading” indicators, or assets that typically lead stocks to the upside …
As 2024 unfolds, ominous signs loom over the economic horizon, with the Druckenmiller Recession Indicator delivering a stark warning. Plummeting to its lowest level since 1999, this indicator, historically associated with economic downturns, is flashing red, raising concerns about the state of the economy. Leading economic indicators have endured a daunting streak, falling for 20 …
China’s central bank has made a historic move by injecting a record $112 billion into the financial system, according to reports from Bloomberg. This substantial cash injection comes as the Chinese yuan experiences depreciation against the US dollar, posing challenges for exporters and raising concerns about potential inflation. The Chinese economy has been grappling with …
