Disruptions in the Strait and Mediterranean are ripple-effecting through global supply chains.
Shipping costs for finished goods are up 15% compared to the start of the year.
Large retailers are reporting inventory lags on seasonal imports.
Insurance firms are quietly raising the ‘risk premium’ on all vessels in the region.
The cost of this instability is being passed directly to the American consumer.
StockMarket.News
@_Investinq
Jeff Currie thinks we are sleepwalking into one of the biggest commodity shocks since Covid and the market is still pricing it like a headline risk instead of a physical crisis (Save this).
He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in Singapore, where prices spiked to roughly 230 dollars a barrel.
This week the same pattern has shown up in Rotterdam at around 220 dollars and in Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Australia which means the dislocation has gone intercontinental.
In his words, there is no longer any meaningful spread between Singapore and Rotterdam, no spare barrels to re route, and no policy lever that can solve the problem in the short term.
Currie’s core point is brutally simple, you can print money, but you cannot print molecules.
The futures curve, the paper market is still trading around 100 dollars a barrel.
The physical market on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz is telling a completely different story, with Oman crude spiking to 173 dollars and Asia bound blends effectively clearing around 130 dollars a barrel.
Refined products like jet fuel and diesel are already spiraling north of 200 dollars a barrel in multiple hubs.
That is the tale of two markets he is talking about.
On one side you have screen prices that look volatile but manageable, helped by algorithmic trading, cross commodity hedging and the lingering belief that high prices fix high prices before anything breaks.
On the other side you have physical supply chains that are already breaking, tankers being diverted, refineries bidding against each other for the last uncommitted barrels, and regional shortages that cannot be solved with central bank liquidity.
Jeff Currie thinks we are sleepwalking into one of the biggest commodity shocks since Covid and the market is still pricing it like a headline risk instead of a physical crisis (Save this).
He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in… pic.twitter.com/fJ9rFuMk9u
— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) June 6, 2026
For those wondering if markets have more room to fall..
“On Wednesday US CPI data for the month of May will be released and having looked at the latest estimates from major firms, it’s almost certain headline CPI will break above 4% again for the first time since April 2023. Estimates are 4.1 to 4.2% which will bring Fed hikes back into focus.
Core CPI is also expected to edge up to a seven-month high of 2.9%, which is more concerning since this strips out oil from the headline data. For the month of May alone core CPI could add 0.5% which is quite alot for a core number in just one month.
If the Fed needs any help in becoming more hawkish again, the ECB in Europe may inspire them as they will already start hiking this Thursday.”
This week: May US CPI inflation will break above 4% and ECB will start hiking on Thurday
byu/ThinkBigger01 instocks