Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
1. 10 year and 20 year bond yields just hit 30 year highs. Every business and the government itself now pays more to borrow. 2. Debt is at 206% of GDP, the highest in the developed world. As yields rise, the interest bill rises with it automatically. 3. Working age population has fallen by 14% …
Overall Consumer Confidence Index up 0.6 points to 91.2. Present Situation Index down 3.0 points to 116.4. Expectations Index up 3.0 points to 74.4. Data from Conference Board survey released today. Expectations still low and below key recession threshold. Slight improvement but mixed signals on current vs future views. Oil price relief mentioned as one …
The NASDAQ has clearly put in a major top and is starting to topple. by David Haggith If you look at the stock market over the past two months, you see a clear triple top in the NASDAQ, which had been driving all the momentum relentlessly uphill until recently: MarketWatch That’s the look of a major top. What …
The market is currently pricing a speculative dream while ignoring the cold math of capital efficiency SpaceX just hit a $1.78 trillion valuation with a direct listing that ignored traditional wall street roadshows Compare that to Microsoft which holds a market cap near $2.9 trillion while generating massive recurring software profits Investors are pouring capital …
U.S. military strikes on June 10 destroyed two critical water storage reservoirs in Sirik, Iran. The attack left roughly 20,000 residents without access to potable water during extreme heat waves reaching 50°C. Iranian officials have labeled the strikes as a war crime and a violation of international laws protecting essential civilian infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran …
Disruptions in the Strait and Mediterranean are ripple-effecting through global supply chains. Shipping costs for finished goods are up 15% compared to the start of the year. Large retailers are reporting inventory lags on seasonal imports. Insurance firms are quietly raising the ‘risk premium’ on all vessels in the region. The cost of this instability …
The Iranian rial has lost nearly 90% of its value since 2018. Economic desperation is a core driver behind Tehran’s aggressive missile diplomacy. Officials are conditioning any ceasefire on the release of frozen foreign assets. Nuclear site inspections remain at a standstill due to lack of access. Internal protests are suppressed but the economic reality …
by David Haggith Large cracks showed up everywhere today, and a far worse landslide is already a done deal for late June, according to oil companies, due to critical oil shortages that can no longer be escaped. While the Dow soared a huge 900 points to another all-time high today, it didn’t do it for …
Berkshire piles up the biggest cash mountain in history while dumping stocks left and right This proves the glowing economy numbers only reward the top Regular people produce way more value but keep way less every single year Smart money sees the crash signals and bails hard before it hits ⚠️American workers are getting SQUEEZED …
Iran says negotiations with the United States are over, blaming repeated ceasefire violations and Israeli strikes in Lebanon Now Tehran is threatening to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and warning about the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as well Around 20% of the world’s oil moves through Hormuz Bab el-Mandeb is one of the most important …
I doubt any of you know a truck driver. I do. By September, there will be food riots. AC
The real story here is not “recession fears.” The real story is that institutions, markets, and even consumers are starting to quietly admit something much darker: The modern economy increasingly survives through financial insulation, debt tolerance, asset inflation, and delayed recognition of losses rather than broad based prosperity. That is the connective tissue running through …
Consumer sentiment hits all-time low… Borrowing costs reach 2007 highs… The “temporary” inflation trap explained… 61% of Americans said they had to cut back on groceries https://t.co/lv4IA7FhPJ — The Straits Times (@straits_times) May 23, 2026 The American housing market in 2026 locked an entire generation out of ownership and trapped an older one inside payments …
United Nations economists officially slashed their 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, down from the 2.7% projection set back in January. The downward revision is a direct result of the energy crisis sparked by airstrikes in the Middle East and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is now strangling the supply of …
Source: CBS News Poll – May 13-15, 2026 Adults in the U.S. A fresh CBS News poll shows support for the administration’s financial management is in free fall… Only 27% of surveyed Americans approve of the current response to sticky consumer inflation… The numbers drop as WTI crude holds above $104 and regional infrastructure stress …
City leaders pitch “local business” and “environment” while pushing tighter travel and zoning rules. They wreck economies then lecture the little guy about flying too much. Foreign tourism has fallen off a cliff. This is a $100B domestic industry largely concentrated in NYC, southern Florida, southern California, and Las Vegas. Hotels, airlines, restaurants, and tour …
TikTok continues to meltdown over the cost of living here. pic.twitter.com/rtNJ91NY7Z — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 4, 2026 The gas prices are disgusting.My gas bill has doubled. We are living in Energy crisis. — Prof (@TheProfInvestor) May 4, 2026 A recent survey by Generation Lab found that more than 8 in 10 young adults rate …
The U.S. economy is currently a “hollowed-out” powerhouse. While the 2% GDP surge looks decent on a teleprompter, new data confirms that nearly three-quarters of that growth is just the tech giants frantically buying server racks and H100 chips to avoid falling behind in the AI arms race. Outside the Silicon Valley bubble, the “real” …
Labor unions and community groups demand end to Iran war and ICE operations… Chicago Teachers Union and SEIU lead massive economic disruption efforts… Police on high alert as “unlikely marchers” join elderly in street demonstrations… Thousands in US to join ‘no school, no work, no shopping’ May Day protest in economic blackout “Walkouts, marches and …
American consumers have NEVER been this pessimistic about the economy: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8 in April, the lowest reading EVER in over 70 years of polling, with declines occurring across all income levels, ages, and political affiliations. This comes as gasoline prices posted the largest monthly jump in pump …
U.S.-Iran war ‘tax’ begins to hit American businesses and consumers Nick Friedman, co-founder of Tampa-based College Hunks Hauling Junk and Moving, says his business has been facing multiple headwinds. High mortgage rates have dampened the real estate market, while rising insurance premiums are eating into operating costs. Now there’s the U.S.-Iran war and a surge …
With some US Special Forces units already in the region, and with thousands more Marines and Sailors en route, and after Trump earlier floated at least two to three more weeks of major strikes on Iran, the president on Friday morning wrote on Truth Social that “with a little more time, we can easily OPEN …
Apocalyptic economic fallout. NHK confirms Trump's disastrous war has completely paralyzed India's massive textile industry. With 90% of their LPG imports choked off at the Strait of Hormuz, HALF A MILLION workers just lost their jobs. The global supply chain is collapsing. pic.twitter.com/JrbYuhO0Da — Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 2, 2026 This is where the 2026 …
For those of us in Los Angeles, the absolute free fall in local television production is the reason Hollywood jobs seem to have evaporated. pic.twitter.com/mAeg28GWJG — Ben Fritz (@benfritz) March 30, 2026
As shown below, the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS) currently warns of a potential recession or at least a significant economic slowdown. I haven’t published the WRS for some time and “Walmart Worries” just keep multiplying. For the details see my latest @ https://t.co/cmZvbGqspf pic.twitter.com/GU4EJg2Hx6 — Jim Paulsen (@jimwpaulsen) March 30, 2026 Walmart recession signal on …
