Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Disruptions in the Strait and Mediterranean are ripple-effecting through global supply chains. Shipping costs for finished goods are up 15% compared to the start of the year. Large retailers are reporting inventory lags on seasonal imports. Insurance firms are quietly raising the ‘risk premium’ on all vessels in the region. The cost of this instability …
Scientists are raising the alarm that one of the planet’s most disruptive climate patterns could return with force next year. Multiple climate models now suggest a major El Niño event is likely to develop in 2026, with some projections indicating it could rival or even surpass the devastating 1877 event — widely regarded as one …
Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the financial system actually is right now. And it started cracking TODAY. Step 1 → JPMorgan just marked down its private credit loans and RESTRICTED lending to private credit funds. Step 2 → Morgan Stanley is now BLOCKING redemptions at its private credit fund after withdrawals surged. Step 3 …
Best guess who's moving the value of a useless metal by trillions… pic.twitter.com/na2Pt8d6xL — Patrick Barkio (@P_DiddyBarkio) September 23, 2025 Anchor: The president repeatedly said that he would end the war on day 1, but we are 250 days into the administration. Marco Rubio: Yeah, but that's not up to us to end the war. …
Friendly reminder: the 129-year-old Dow Theory flipped bearish back on March 14, 2025. The "things that make shit index" $DJI is pushing higher, but the "things that move shit index" $DJT is not confirming. Without confirmation, the "oldest market signal" is still flashing a… pic.twitter.com/4nMsCYel6O — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) September 10, 2025 https://twitter.com/TommyThornton/status/1965790936849633290 …
If this trend continues, we may be on the brink of extreme volatility across multiple asset classes. Gold is already at a new record high, just below $3,460 and silver blew past $40, trading just under $40.20. Prices for both metals may be much higher by the time U.S markets open on Tuesday. Bitcoin will …
$KRE -7% since 21st July notably. Something brewing with the banks? 🤔 — Godzilla Trader 🦖 (@David_Tracey) August 11, 2025 Condo prices are collapsing pic.twitter.com/YBmN3BkkZO — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 11, 2025 https://twitter.com/VladTheInflator/status/1954720087023481049
Treasury volatility just hit rock bottom, the lowest since January 2022. The MOVE Index cratered. Fear? Gone. Hedging? Forget it. Market signals? Silent. Only a quiet calm that should scare you. “Volatility in the Treasuries market has dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index falling to its lowest level since January 2022.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasuries-volatility-gauge-falls-092845181.html Rates …
April came with blood on the screen. Stocks sold off, yields surged, and the Fed kept its poker face. Retail panicked. But one group didn’t buy the dip: hedge funds. They saw the trap. Or at least they thought they did. They didn’t touch equities. Instead, they went after bonds with a vengeance. Hedge Funds …
Private Credit is where the next systemic financial risk is going to emerge from. Just a complete scam industry. Fake valuations. Pretending things are par when they are clearly not. Lending to garbage companies. And… it’s all being financed by debt from commercial banks (since banks can’t lend like this anymore after 2008). Private credit …
💥BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR'S STRATEGY HAS TRANSFERRED 7,383.25 $BTC WORTH $612.92 MILLION INTO 3 NEW ADDRESSES. SOMETHING BIG IS COMING!! pic.twitter.com/7ulvMLaUeq — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) March 30, 2025
If Norin sells foreign bonds now, it suggests deep liquidity trouble beyond CLOs. https://twitter.com/Bogachan_1971/status/1892415980887855409 Japan’s second-largest bank, Norinchukin, is deep in a liquidity crisis, and it’s becoming nearly impossible to hide its mounting losses. A Credit Suisse-like Collapse is Looming in Japan And there is no good/easy/inexpensive way to clean up the mess Japan's Second …
China 10 yr continues to fall. Looks like 1% in acting as a magnet. It’s now firmly below 1.7%. At what yield will the Japanese 10 yr be higher than its Chinese counter part. Historic times. 👇 pic.twitter.com/R3CMPavOwn — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) December 31, 2024
$VIX spikes as overvalued stocks face earnings, Blackwell chip overheating adds risk. Human history's most overvalued stock reports earnings on Wednesday this week. And deja vu of August we get news of another problem with the nextgen Blackwell chip. This time due to overheating.https://t.co/RGVik7vOym Bulls are about to get Jensen Huang'd AGAIN. This news will… …
https://twitter.com/true_explorer/status/1846308187156386033 The smarter ones have moved onto acceptance. h/t Glenn
1. CRE: Latest data reveals weak loan growth and higher loan delinquencies. Auto loan: Prime and subprime auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Student loan: Biden administration's order of one-year moratorium- student loan not reported to credit reports ends next month. — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) September 9, 2024 3. Problems remain concentrated in offices where vacancy rates …
US Aircraft Carrier Arrives In South Korea Amid Spiking Tensions With The North (msn.com) AU.S. aircraft carrier arrived in South Korea on Saturday as tensions with its northern counterpart have spiked in recent weeks, The Associated Press reported. The USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group arrived in the Korean peninsula for joint military drills with South Korea and …
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sounds the alarm on inflation, wars, and Fed policy, painting a bleak economic picture. Despite beating Q1 earnings, concerns arise over rising interest expenses and missed estimates, pressuring the stock. Gold and silver are defying conventional market trends amidst debt market weakness and a strengthening dollar. They exhibit resilience, surpassing …
As 2024 unfolds, ominous signs loom over the economic horizon, with the Druckenmiller Recession Indicator delivering a stark warning. Plummeting to its lowest level since 1999, this indicator, historically associated with economic downturns, is flashing red, raising concerns about the state of the economy. Leading economic indicators have endured a daunting streak, falling for 20 …
If you really think “they” are going to let either Trump or Biden get anywhere near the finish line, wake up folks. There’s something ugly brewing & it’s staring us in the face. pic.twitter.com/p9G5QcSN6U — Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) December 23, 2023
As we navigate the currents of financial markets, the landscape reveals a precarious situation. Reflecting on the March 2020 crisis, which extended beyond the realm of COVID-19 to a massive blowout of the basis trade, the present scenario raises alarms. Collateral haircuts hover at zero or near-zero levels, with banks shouldering increasing risks. Astonishingly, the …
The warning signs are becoming more pronounced, and it appears that a recession may be looming closer than expected. Tightening liquidity is often a precursor to economic downturns. This is evident in the increasing number of companies closing their doors and factories declaring bankruptcy. These are clear indicators of economic distress that should not be …
“Homebuyer Debt-to-Income Ratios (DTIs) are now approaching 40% in the beginning of 2023. That means homebuyers are now spending 40% of their gross income on mortgage and interest costs. Same level as 2006.” Is another Mortgage Crisis brewing? Homebuyer Debt-to-Income Ratios (DTIs) are now approaching 40% in the beginning of 2023. That means homebuyers are …
