A powerful El Niño may be brewing for 2026: one of the strongest in recorded history.

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Scientists are raising the alarm that one of the planet’s most disruptive climate patterns could return with force next year. Multiple climate models now suggest a major El Niño event is likely to develop in 2026, with some projections indicating it could rival or even surpass the devastating 1877 event — widely regarded as one of the most extreme on record.

El Niño occurs when a large area of unusually warm water builds up across the equatorial Pacific. This excess heat alters global atmospheric circulation, triggering widespread shifts in weather patterns far beyond the ocean itself.

The impacts of a strong El Niño are often severe and far-reaching. Past events have caused simultaneous crop failures, intense heat waves, prolonged droughts, catastrophic flooding, coral bleaching, and fishery collapses across several continents. The 1877 super El Niño, for example, contributed to massive famines and an estimated tens of millions of deaths in regions including India, China, Brazil, and parts of Africa.

What makes a potential 2026 event particularly concerning is that it would unfold on an already warming planet. Global ocean temperatures have been running unusually high for an extended period, and many areas are already facing water stress, extreme heat, and climate-related crises. Adding a powerful El Niño on top of this background warming could push systems to the breaking point.

While El Niño affects different regions in different ways, bringing heavy rains and floods to some areas and severe drought and heat to others, its global footprint tends to strain food production, water resources, energy systems, and public health simultaneously.

Forecasters emphasize that predictions can still change, and the final strength of the event remains uncertain. However, growing agreement across climate models has increased confidence that a significant El Niño is forming.

[“Atmospheric Code Red: 2026 Super El Niño Now Trending Toward Record-Breaking Intensity.” Severe Weather Europe]

WMO: Likelihood increases of El Niño

An El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update from WMO signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July 2026. Forecasts indicate there is a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns.

“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.

“Models indicate that this may be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he says.

https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino

h/t Fenris