Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael Now that the war with the Iranians appears to be fully back on, there will be no turning back now. President Trump just told reporters in the White House that “we’re going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard”, and so it should now be apparent to everyone that there isn’t going …
The latest University of Michigan numbers for May came in at 44.8, way below normal levels. People are exhausted by higher gas prices and rising costs for basic stuff, and fears around the Strait of Hormuz are making inflation worries even worse. A lot of Americans just feel like everything keeps getting more expensive while …
Scientists are raising the alarm that one of the planet’s most disruptive climate patterns could return with force next year. Multiple climate models now suggest a major El Niño event is likely to develop in 2026, with some projections indicating it could rival or even surpass the devastating 1877 event — widely regarded as one …
Earnings beat but everything else is collapsing now. Why would people buy houses when AI is replacing their jobs. Here are the numbers for $SPY earnings +27.8% vs +13.9% est. Big tech is absolutely smashing analyst estimates pic.twitter.com/J2ytNQYuqr — Simplifying Stocks, CPA (@FinFluentialx) May 1, 2026 Tech layoffs are skyrocketing: Tech companies announced 81,747 layoffs …
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months plunge from over 5% to under 3.5% according to the Bond Market byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Institutions are loading up on call options at the fastest pace ever recorded 📈🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/y6QmeCNC70 — Barchart (@Barchart) April 17, 2026 IMHO Sec Bessent is reading the tape correctly: core inflation is falling, the …
BREAKING: U.S. Fertility Rate Collapses to Lowest Level Ever Recorded A new CDC report confirms America is now reproducing at the lowest rate in recorded history, with fertility dropping 5.7% since 2021 alone.https://t.co/Oo8dbdpFxr — “Sudden And Unexpected” (@toobaffled) April 13, 2026 A newly released CDC report confirms that the U.S. fertility rate has declined to …
We’re just going to pretend this part was normal and “because covid” pic.twitter.com/jn6qHOrh10 — Jeff Rey (@Est1986) March 5, 2026 The all-important spring housing market is off and running, and while the pace isn’t expected to be strong, there are signs of optimism, at least among sellers. Some who gave up last year are jumping …
139% Above Its Mean. Every Prior Peak Collapsed." This is the Q Ratio — the broadest measure of US stock market valuation vs. the replacement cost of assets. Right now? 139% above its long-run average. We just touched 147% — above the 3 Standard Deviation line. Here's what… pic.twitter.com/1kb91n7nCV — The Economic LongWave (@TheELongWave) March …
FACT CHECK: MURDER RATE In his 2026 State of the Union, President Trump said, “Last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. This is the biggest decline, think of it in recorded history, the lowest number in over 125 years.” A CBS News fact check has determined that is true. …
🚨 WARNING: THE SYSTEM IS COLLAPSING IN REAL TIME!! Pending Home Sales just fell to the LOWEST LEVEL ever recorded. That means demand for homes is now weaker than it was in 2008. And if you think housing has no impact on other markets YOU ARE WRONG! Housing is one of the… pic.twitter.com/o8fMhr6m0d — Wimar.X …
The trend is real, historic, and growing. The number of Americans holding two full-time jobs reached 476,000, marking the second-highest level on record. The figure trails only December 2025’s all-time peak of 488,000. The trend represents a dramatic shift in the U.S. labor market, according to data shared by The Kobeissi Letter. Dual full-time employment …
If you’re a Republican, you need to pay attention. Trump is losing support by the minute. 2026 midterms are going to be catastrophic. https://t.co/guIneq4g3L — Eric Spracklen 🇺🇸 (@EricSpracklen) February 15, 2026 🚨 JUST IN: The U.S. just received its worst corruption score ever recorded. The numbers: – Score: 64 out of 100 (down from …
But hey, inflation is down amirite pic.twitter.com/TO4OcggCT3 — ❝ 𝕵𝖚𝖉𝖆𝖘 ❞ (@jpegjudas) December 19, 2025 🚨BREAKING: Nike COLLAPSES as the U.S. Economy WEAKENS. pic.twitter.com/9FvBrPwYix — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) December 19, 2025 🚨BREAKING: Nike COLLAPSES as the U.S. Economy WEAKENS. pic.twitter.com/9FvBrPwYix — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) December 19, 2025 November's CPI report "should not be taken literally …
US rent prices are declining at a historic pace: National apartment rents fell -0.31% MoM in October, marking the steepest October decrease in over 15 years. This also marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline, as elevated supply continues to weigh on prices nationwide. 3 of the 5 largest monthly rent declines over the last 15 …
Gold will continue to climb and if Japan sells bonds real slow in the hopes that no one will notice … … … will not help. — K. (@Kayteetav) October 6, 2025 America is Insolvent. The Dollar is Worthless. pic.twitter.com/uIwQxBp2dz — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 6, 2025 Facts: business demand is way down. Prices are …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing. …
On Sunday, a 1,585 foot high megatsunami struck a portion of Alaska, leading to widespread devastation which greatly changed the landscape. Thankfully, no one was harmed because the second tallest tsunami ever recorded thankfully had its worst extents confined to a remote fjord. It was only reported on a local site https://alaskapublic.org/news/environment/2025-08-12/pure-chaos-out-of-nowhere-mega-landslide-and-tsunami-rip-through-tracy-arm-south-of-juneau ‘Pure chaos out …
Snowfall was recorded in Poland’s High Tatras mountains on August 24, 2025, for the first time in August since 2010, as temperatures dropped to -3°C (26.6°F) at the summit of Kasprowy Wierch. The event was driven by an Arctic air mass that moved across Poland over the weekend. Poland’s High Tatras Mountains recorded their first …
E-commerce volumes are stalling across key retail categories. This isn’t seasonal noise. It’s systemic friction. Consumers are pulling back. Tariff pressure is shifting behavior. High-income brackets are still spending. The rest are freezing up. The latest AlixPartners retail index shows a multi-point year-over-year drop in online purchases across nearly every major segment. Sporting goods saw …
Remarkable chart. Spending on computer equipment just made its largest contribution to GDP on record in the most recent quarter. Unlike the steady buildup we saw in the 1990s, this time we’re seeing a sharp, sudden surge. I don't think the world is prepared for the surge in… pic.twitter.com/oe8pzP6CuB — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) May …
Monthly Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at its highest level in history 🚨 pic.twitter.com/MJGzrhLpxi — Barchart (@Barchart) May 19, 2025 Economic policy uncertainty is at an all-time high. pic.twitter.com/5Ln2KXdR82 — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 14, 2025
The jump in equity positioning this week was among the largest ever recorded. The chase is on. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TSLA $NVDA pic.twitter.com/f4zzxUMdkW — David Marlin (@Marlin_Capital) May 17, 2025 Escalation vibes. https://t.co/CzOybPRjGL — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 17, 2025 Long-end Treasury yields after Moody's announcement 👀 Monday's open going to be fun… pic.twitter.com/xTl3jTg6gP …
BREAKING: The world's 500 richest people lost $500 billion this week, which is the largest ever recorded by Bloomberg. The only one who made money? Warren Buffett. pic.twitter.com/aPM7VwhEp1 — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 6, 2025
by MarkusEF Feb 10 Day 16 update (Investopedia): https://www.investopedia.com/meta-stock-record-16-session-winning-streak-8788971 Trillion dollar / Big Tech longest streaks as of Feb 7 (WSJ): https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jobs-report-stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-02-07-2025/card/meta-stock-extends-winning-streak-to-15-sessions-EkYgAX2FQc5YFmfZWlN1 My analysis: Earnings were reported on January 29, the 8th day of this streak. They did beat expectations, and beat by a lot. However, CONSECUTIVE multi-day post-earnings streaks historically don’t tend to last, since all …
They believe that the prices of these bonds will drop, which typically happens when interest rates rise. By shorting these bonds, they’re hoping to profit if their predictions about the market come true. Largest 2-Year Treasury Short Position in History 🚨 Hedge Funds have now built the largest 2-Year Treasury short position in history pic.twitter.com/mhzOmhCWWf …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mehVNj-Af4Q Jim Rogers talks about Everything Bubble; Bonds, Property, Stocks, they are all in a bubble, they’ve never been this expensive in the history of the world. Jim said the only cheap assets right now are commodities, and one of them is Silver, which is down 60 percent from it’s all time high. Jim Rogers …
What will that do for the everyday average person? Fox: The Nasdaq just hit 17,000 for the first time ever. This is the highest level ever recorded in history pic.twitter.com/xsZnfNTWsd — Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) May 28, 2024 Trump four months ago: I hope the economy crashes in the next twelve months (The Dow just hit 40,000 …
The USA is currently experiencing the longest and steepest yield curve inversion in recorded history between the 10-year Treasury Note and 3-month Treasury Bill. Historical data shows that such inversions have preceded economic recessions. The prolonged inversion is seen as “smart money” signaling skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s narrative on inflation. This skepticism raises questions …
In a recent video on the YouTube channel “The Electric Viking” by Sam Evans, alarming news about the Chinese electric vehicle market has emerged. The video shared that over the past four months, four different Chinese EV manufacturers and one major automotive group with hundreds of dealerships in China have declared bankruptcy, raising concerns about …
