E-commerce volumes are stalling across key retail categories. This isn’t seasonal noise. It’s systemic friction. Consumers are pulling back. Tariff pressure is shifting behavior. High-income brackets are still spending. The rest are freezing up.
The latest AlixPartners retail index shows a multi-point year-over-year drop in online purchases across nearly every major segment. Sporting goods saw a 12 percentage point pullback. Cosmetics, furniture, electronics, and home furnishings each dropped close to 10 points. Apparel lost four. Mobile phones ticked lower. Even pet supply demand weakened. Groceries were the only flatline. No category posted a gain. That hasn’t happened in over ten years.
The reasons aren’t subtle. Tariffs are stacking cost into product pipelines. Consumer pricing is no longer predictable. Thirty-four percent of buyers say they’re holding off until pricing stabilizes. Another 28% say they moved up purchases to beat looming import fees. Two-thirds are ready to switch brands if costs go higher. Retailers are already tightening. Free shipping minimums have jumped. Return windows are shrinking. Logistics are being cut for margin, not service.
At the top of the ladder, there’s no sign of pullback. Luxury spending is running hot. Homes priced over $1 million made up 7.6% of total U.S. sales last month, up from just 5% two years ago. That’s nearly one in thirteen transactions. Days on market for high-end listings has dropped to 75. Under $1 million, it’s gone up to 64. Million-dollar homes are moving faster than starter homes in half the country.
The shift isn’t limited to real estate. The Institute for Luxury Marketing reports 21 consecutive months of acceleration in the $1 million-plus goods tier. That includes autos, timepieces, art, and hard assets. High net worth buyers are leaning into tangible value. Equity positions are rotating. The upper 10% of U.S. households now control over $34.7 trillion in property equity alone. That’s an 8.8% increase year over year. The trendline is clean. The capital is consolidating upward.
The middle market is not just slowing. It’s breaking trend. The tariffs aren’t just economic. They’re behavioral. High earners are moving capital. Everyone else is pausing.
Sources
https://www.realtor.com/research/luxury-2025-outlook/
https://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica.pdf
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/state-of-luxury