Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Disruptions in the Strait and Mediterranean are ripple-effecting through global supply chains. Shipping costs for finished goods are up 15% compared to the start of the year. Large retailers are reporting inventory lags on seasonal imports. Insurance firms are quietly raising the ‘risk premium’ on all vessels in the region. The cost of this instability …
Tucker: US is gearing up for a "big war" as the Pentagon's 2027 budget has boosted up to $1.5T. “That's a war budget, a big war budget. So I think it's fair to expect, and all the signs suggest, that we're going to have a big war soon.” pic.twitter.com/ylSOJkKxlg — redpillbot (@redpillb0t) March 13, 2026
As Bitcoin struggles to climb out of its current funk, several indicators suggest any breach of the $60,000 level would unleash a fresh bout of extreme turbulence. The biggest cluster of bets in Bitcoin’s options market are contracts that pay off if the price falls below $60,000, according to data from Deribit. Just below that …
At this point the Canadian media and Government institutions are rapidly replacing the descendants of those who built this Country and transforming Canada into a post-National economic zone. They are spending countless billions to accomplish this and to propagandize their… pic.twitter.com/lwm2oDTf3w — Rage Against the Regime (@JamesPTutt) February 14, 2026
When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down. “What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades near ~25× forward earnings, well above its long-term median closer to ~16×” FULL ANALYSIS BELOW! …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought some disappointing news for the UK from the labour market and we can start with what is already grabbing the headlines. The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.8% in June to August 2025. This is up in the latest quarter and …
pic.twitter.com/9zgR2TqY0f — Dee Jersey Girl (@DianaSt13652967) October 2, 2025 🇺🇸 Eric Trump:"Cryptocurrency is going to replace traditional finance."Nobody wants to be on the Euro, no one wants to be on any of the Asian currencies, no one wants to be on any of the South American currencies, guess what everybody in the world wants? They …
via notayesmanseconomics Today’s economic data for the UK opens by rather emphasising yesterday’s subject and why Prime Minister Kier Starmer is not only putting more emphasis on economic growth he is rather sidelining his Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.4% in June …
United Parcel Service at $88–90 is often perceived as cheap because of the high dividend yield near 7.41 percent. At first glance the yield seems attractive, but the stock remains expensive because the dividend payout is nearly unsustainable. True value is likely to emerge only if dividends are reduced to a more sustainable level around …
Federal agents picked up a man out of Manatee County, Florida last Friday. The charge isn’t subtle. He allegedly posted public threats to kill people named on what’s been called the “Epstein client list.” That list, according to the DOJ and FBI, does not officially exist. But the arrest papers treat it as a real …
Yields don’t move like this unless something under the surface is breaking or already has byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts A sale of 20-year U.S. government bonds saw weak demand Wednesday, pushing the Treasuries to new lows for the year as yields climbed. https://www.barrons.com/articles/20-year-treasury-bond-auction-bba9d889 Unpopular Opinion: This market move is closer to just starting than finishing. Ask yourself …
The very rapid reversal in #equity postioning suggest the recent rally probably needs to take a pause. pic.twitter.com/0R9SZTp7iw — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 19, 2025
by RobertBartus “The index of prices paid by New York manufacturers jumped to 51 points in April, the highest since August 2022. At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing prices paid index rose to 51 points, the highest since July 2022. All while the Dallas and Kansas manufacturing prices paid surged to 48 points and …
This is a fascinating chart for anyone looking at the gold-to-silver ratio in a historical context. Over the past 125 years, the ratio has only spent brief moments above the 100 level — extremes like this tend not to persist for long. If history is any guide, this doesn’t look… pic.twitter.com/BFjWJz4L2W — Otavio (Tavi) Costa …
“There are only two outcomes to this trade war. Option 1: China folds. They agree to Trump’s terms, drop the tariffs, and the trade war ends. Trump takes full credit, and the U.S. gains yet another strategic and economic edge over China. Option 2: China, an authoritarian regime with a long track record of playing …
BREAKING: Putin agrees to the ceasefire but insists it must lead to lasting peace and the reversal of the original causes of the crisis. pic.twitter.com/zWmwRRL4Ud — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 13, 2025 This is completely backwards. He categorically does not agree with the US/Ukrainian proposals for a ceasefire; he's making his own proposal that …
Fed Minutes (January 2025) Fed can maintain policy at restrictive level if economy strong Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution Two participants believe risks to achieving inflation mandate outweigh risks to employment mandate Most participants judged risks to dual mandate objectives were roughly in balance Fed wants further …
Based Bernie has truly returned. Some sensible ones like Bernie and Fetterman are try to pick up the reigns and steer the party back to reality. Away from elitest fake news msm russiagate nonsense. h/t Wookie9991
Microsoft-backed (NASDAQ:MSFT) OpenAI is not expected to earn annual profits until 2029, according to company financial documents obtained by The Information. The documents show annual losses could spike as high as $14B in 2026, the report said. The projections showed the company reaching annual revenue of $100B in 2029. OpenAI also expects to spend about …
“They’re not long enough”@eliant_capital @marketplunger1 — AP Research (@AlphaPicks) September 30, 2024 1) Stepping in front of a runaway train is not a good idea2) A world full of universally high expectations can result in great disappointment.3) This trade is crowded https://t.co/hP5GIY9J4a — Scarlett & Carter's BaPa (@KASDad) September 30, 2024 GOLD – History in …
We interpret comments from Fed officials just ahead of the blackout period to mean that the FOMC is more likely to cut by 25bp than 50bp. We think a 50bp cut would be a sensible precaution against further labor market softening, but the Fed leadership has communicated a… pic.twitter.com/fG9XaaOiUr — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September …
BREAKING: US job postings declined 12.4% year-over-year to their lowest level since April 2021. Overall, US job postings are down by ~50% since their December 2021 record. However, nationwide job postings are still 11.7% above their pre-pandemic baseline, according to Indeed.… pic.twitter.com/ACKWXNMDvi — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 22, 2024 BREAKING: The US Treasury yield …
Joe Biden surrogate and MSNBC host Lawrence O'Donnell, bizarrely suggests presidential shadow team get microphones at the next debate format. pic.twitter.com/8JdHc3fdhI — Blue Owl (@BlueOwlHoots) July 5, 2024 h/t BFD
They got busted when several interviewers reported that they were given a list of pre-approved questions. — Cactus Castle (@cactuscastle24) July 7, 2024 JUST IN: Radio show host says she was sent interview questions to ask Biden ahead of their interview earlier this week. Biden: A president so sharp that he can't even answer questions …
We’re looking at multiple economic indicators like the yield curve and jobless claims to assess recession risks While an economic downturn is not here yet Risks of it are gradually increasing At this rate, we cannot rule out an H2 recession for sure — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 2, 2024 All the "job openings" were …
Israel has reportedly agreed to a framework for a new ceasefire deal with Hamas that would cease hostilities for six weeks in exchange for the release of up to 40 hostages. An Israeli delegation led by Ronen Bar and David Barnea, the country’s two intelligence chiefs, returned on Saturday from negotiations in Paris with the …
Unstoppable debt crisis will crash the U.S. economy sooner than later.
“Do you see where we’re heading? They’re changing laws in New York just so Trump can be sued. They’re opening cases across the country against him for any semblance of a crime they can find. They’re trying to remove him from the ballot just to keep him out of office. They’re not allowing any debates …
Surprise surprise – Taylor Swift has *massive* financial ties to George Soros and Alex Soros Now do you see how she’s become a political weapon for the Democrat agenda? Props to @LauraLoomer for digging up these receipts https://t.co/o8zXwMndo1 — DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) December 6, 2023
Her comments come after the biggest rate cut in China since 2020, which was delivered alongside a slew of worse-than expected economic data. The analyst put out some interesting charts comparing 1990s Japan to modern China: https://t.co/hHM4FuSC2a pic.twitter.com/N6U1qsfxFe — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 15, 2023 New rate cuts from the PBoC! 🇨🇳🥶 Spreads between USD …