Several signs suggest this is a dead cat rally, set to screw over retail one more time

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“There are only two outcomes to this trade war.

Option 1: China folds. They agree to Trump’s terms, drop the tariffs, and the trade war ends. Trump takes full credit, and the U.S. gains yet another strategic and economic edge over China.

Option 2: China, an authoritarian regime with a long track record of playing hardball, refuses to back down. Instead, they escalate—slapping more tariffs on U.S. goods, aggressively cloning American products, undercutting prices, and eroding U.S. market dominance. They could even dump U.S. Treasury holdings, triggering a massive market sell-off and a sharp rise in yields. The result? A financial bloodbath—rising unemployment, surging inflation, and enormous pressure on Trump to reverse course. Eventually, a face-saving deal gets made, but it’s mostly cosmetic. Nothing meaningful changes, aside from a market that’s already taken heavy damage.

Personally, I think we’re on track for Option 2. Any green days we’re seeing are a gift—use them to unload. But retail traders will FOMO back in, as always, and get wrecked.”





Trump just broke the bond market, and there’s no undoing it now.