BREAKING: US job postings declined 12.4% year-over-year to their lowest level since April 2021.
Overall, US job postings are down by ~50% since their December 2021 record.
However, nationwide job postings are still 11.7% above their pre-pandemic baseline, according to Indeed.… pic.twitter.com/ACKWXNMDvi
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 22, 2024
BREAKING: The US Treasury yield curve is on the verge of turning positive for the first time since 2022.
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has been negative since July 6, 2022.
In other words, the yield curve has been inverted for a record 747 days.
In past… pic.twitter.com/xFRcJiDnc1
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 22, 2024
ALERT: Treasury market liquidity is becoming a major problem pic.twitter.com/dyrpmvO5b5
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 21, 2024
- Labor Market: The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down. While there is still demand for skilled labor, hiring for white-collar jobs has decreased, and the unemployment rate has slightly risen to 3.9%. This indicates a potential weakening in the labor market.
- Consumer Spending: Consumer sentiment remains weak despite low unemployment and robust GDP growth. This disconnect is partly due to the lingering effects of past inflation, which continues to weigh on consumer confidence. Additionally, retail sales have shown minimal growth, with June 2024 sales virtually unchanged from the previous month.
- Bond Market: The bond market has been signaling caution. The U.S. current-account deficit widened in the first quarter of 2024, and there are concerns about the sustainability of economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also forecasts a slight decline in global growth, with advanced economies experiencing tepid growth.