Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The prospect of a return to Volcker-era economics is no longer a fringe theory. As the 10 year Treasury yield continues its march upward, a growing chorus of macro analysts is warning that the current inflationary spiral is not a temporary spike but a systemic repricing. The argument for interest rates hitting 14% hinges on …
Angel investor Simon Dixon explains how the U.S. economy Ponzi scheme is approaching imminent collapse: “[This] is an absolute disaster.” “The only solution [now] is to print more money than Covid… more money than the global financial crisis.” “[The U.S. needs] to roll over $7 trillion of debt at either 4.5% or 5%.” This clip …
BREAKING: 🚨 Federal Reserve purchases of short duration Treasury Bills now exceeds the height of the 2020 pandemic. Jerome Powell is currently holding $329B short duration T-Bills on the Fed's balance sheet, exceeding the previous crisis peak of $325B. This marks the first… https://t.co/fvDjn6VCQb pic.twitter.com/v4a9OZj3Zb — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 27, 2026 Yup, REPO jumped to …
Someone bought $1,200,000 worth of $VIX 70 calls today For reference the $VIX has hit 70+ two times since its creation… 2008 & 2020 pic.twitter.com/9TvJ3Gs5CF — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) February 19, 2026 Listen, I get a lot of you think stocks only go up, but when the VIX1D is acting like this, it means …
BREAKING: The U.S. Postal Service has quietly issued a troubling letter to employees and contractors… This letter appears to anticipate a major crisis is imminent. The last time the post office sent a letter like this, COVID happened. pic.twitter.com/JiwxWguZ1M — Died Suddenly (@DiedSuddenly_) January 8, 2026
“We’re standing at the edge of a market reckoning that will leave 2007-2008 looking like a footnote. The longest bull market in history doesn’t end quietly. Consider this your final warning. Heading into 2026 the underlying stress in financial markets is clearer than most headlines suggest. Regional banks still carry significant commercial real estate exposure …
American farms are already under pressure. Labor shortages threaten production and prices nationwide. Beth Ford, CEO of Land O’Lakes, warned of a black swan event if farms cannot find enough workers: “These are folks who oftentimes try to get American labor [but] are struggling to do so. They absolutely need labor, and if they don’t …
Sam Altman warns AI could outsmart banks and steal your money OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is warning banks and financial institutions about AI-driven fraud. He highlights how voice clones and deepfakes are already bypassing current security systems, posing a serious threat to people’s money. AI is becoming smarter and is helping humans in all possible …
We’re standing closer to the cliff than most people realize, and the damage will not politely wait until October 1. The second funding runs out, the government starts to unravel. This isn’t just about missed paychecks or a pause in tourist sites. The danger is bigger: aviation safety hollowed out, public health crippled, research abandoned, …
Another Shutdown 'Looming' As GOP, Democrats Clash Over Stopgap Funding Bill https://t.co/qDQSKX3ZIX — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2025 With just over two weeks until yet another episode of government funding distraction theatre, Congress is bracing for a high-stakes showdown that could once again bring the federal government to the brink of a shutdown. House Republicans …
Rising education and careers among women contributing to falling birth rates and future declines in college enrollment. pic.twitter.com/O5I7IVldld — CH (@Econimica) September 2, 2025
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
The media’s Epstein coverage just split into a thousand scattered pieces and nobody’s telling the whole story. The New York Post wants you focused on the House Oversight Committee dragging Ghislaine Maxwell back into the spotlight. They paint it like a righteous GOP crusade but ignore how long lawmakers and prosecutors on both sides have …
The 10Y–3M yield curve remains inverted, but the downtrend has been grinding sideways just below neutral (-0.07%) We've seen this movie before — summer 2023 and 2024 both saw similar counter-trend rallies that kept risk-on flows alive… until the uptrend resumed. Remember: it’s… pic.twitter.com/8ztD0Xinmm — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 8, 2025 Japanese 30 …
#Citi bank is expecting #GOLD to go under $3000 / oz later this year. Is this an indirect signal that pricing of a recession is imminent? Why tell us now? Or, is a #Ratecut coming soon? SEE PIC. $GLD $BTC $SPY pic.twitter.com/S7FUX42IMb — Astro Zan (@alshfaw) June 18, 2025 Also one month earlier, Citigroup said …
Does the debt get rolled over? How are CRE companies going to refinance their debts? What about corporate debt financed at the COVID lows near zero % that needs to be refinanced at 6%+? PE did it too How are companies going to be able to afford this? — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 14, 2025 …
It’s hard to ignore the mounting pressure as bond yields rise. Nations already drowning in debt face the harsh reality of even higher borrowing costs, pushing them closer to the brink. This isn’t a minor shift; it signals a major financial storm that looms on the horizon. Just look at the 10-year and 30-year Treasury …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1897706028655165836 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1897792700419576318 I DECLARE A CORRECTIOOOOOOOOOON pic.twitter.com/803JJKDcMt — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 6, 2025 🚨🇺🇸$1.15 TRILLION WIPED OUT FROM U.S. MARKET AS STOCKS CRASH DUE TO TRADE WAR FEARS Wall Street took a massive hit, with the Dow plunging 427 points and the Nasdaq entering correction territory as Trump’s tariffs rattled investors. Markets tanked after Canada, …
by ReDDisko We are now approaching the point where a new commitment may no longer be possible. As a result of the recession and the ensuing financial crisis, the Fed will no longer be able to target inflation and will be forced to lower interest rates and start buying assets from the market. More precisely, the …
Because while the economy looks solid, it's built on debt, inflation, and overvalued assets. Add in rising interest rates and global instability, and the conditions are ripe for a sharp correction, even in a seemingly strong market. — Rooted_In_Reality (@realonesknow87) December 30, 2024 Trump Just said we are heading to a 1929 scenario in the …
1/ Look at this chart. 🇨🇦 job vacancies have plummeted to 572k in Q3 2024, a staggering 44.5% drop from the Q2 2022 peak. This is the lowest vacancy level since 2021. pic.twitter.com/9baBZ5yFht — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 23, 2024 3/ Employers aren’t just hiring less; 🇨🇦 labor demand is shrinking outright. Total jobs (filled + …
Next up… Leveraged BitcoinLeveraged TeslaLeveraged NvidiaLeveraged Adani Followed by global margin call of biblical magnitude. Unforeseen by the vast majority of everyone. pic.twitter.com/NdsMpuJw1J — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) November 22, 2024 On approach. Below 140 becomes problematic. Won't be long. https://t.co/BDKPgL5aTF pic.twitter.com/Qh3o4pjY4Q — The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 22, 2024 NVIDIA’s revenue strategy reveals red flags: Sophisticated …
THE EURO SWAP CASH BASIS HAS JUST WENT NEGATIVE FOR THE VERY FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 WHENEVER THIS GOES NEGATIVE IT MEANS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING LIQUIDITY ISSUES, ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OVERALL MAJOR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS THIS BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO POP… This is incredible – simultaneously… pic.twitter.com/B3APANZ7fm — fuzzyfacts (@CostcoPM) November 10, 2024 Dow Jones …
The recent downgrade of France’s debt rating to negative by Moody’s has sent shockwaves through Europe, reigniting fears of a potential debt crisis reminiscent of the turmoil seen in previous years. The term “EU debt crisis 2.0” is now being thrown around, warning that the continent might once again grapple with severe financial instability. While …
China’s balancing act between managing real estate risks and economic growth looks increasingly precarious. TL;DR: China’s deepening real estate crisis is spilling over into the banking sector, raising concerns about financial stability. Property-related loans, though slightly reduced, remain a major risk, with nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios expected to rise significantly. Rural banks are particularly vulnerable, …
by Michael I have a feeling that October is going to be one of the most tumultuous months that we have seen in a really long time. Ports all along the East Coast and all along the Gulf Coast are about to shut down, and that could throw U.S. supply chains into a state of …
The first signs of weakness came after China’s HY real estate index fell a massive 82% in just over 2 years. This came as Evergrande, one of China’s real estate giants, filed Chapter 15 bankruptcy. This put the index back down to 2008-levels, but barely anyone talked about it. pic.twitter.com/OYhpxKCVBo — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) …
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1826800230911934687 pic.twitter.com/kjGOfTh9Fe — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 23, 2024 "Housing supply is surging as a record number of buyers get cold feet amid sky-high prices" uhhhhh oh pic.twitter.com/nYAOp902BC — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 22, 2024
The top Democrats who forced President Biden out of presidential race are beginning to admit to their crimes. Eventually the American people will call for their prosecution for conspiracy to defraud the United States. pic.twitter.com/g2bvqoov9g — @amuse (@amuse) August 8, 2024 pic.twitter.com/Hy1sfUWlo6 — Being Appalachian (@BeinAppalachian) August 8, 2024
BREAKING: US job postings declined 12.4% year-over-year to their lowest level since April 2021. Overall, US job postings are down by ~50% since their December 2021 record. However, nationwide job postings are still 11.7% above their pre-pandemic baseline, according to Indeed.… pic.twitter.com/ACKWXNMDvi — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 22, 2024 BREAKING: The US Treasury yield …