American farms are already under pressure. Labor shortages threaten production and prices nationwide.
Beth Ford, CEO of Land O’Lakes, warned of a black swan event if farms cannot find enough workers:
“These are folks who oftentimes try to get American labor [but] are struggling to do so. They absolutely need labor, and if they don’t have it, that’s yet another element—and it could be a black swan event for a farmer if they don’t have somebody who can help and be on [the] farm.”
Immigrant labor forms the backbone of agriculture. Forty-two percent of farmworkers were born outside the U.S. without legal work authorization. In dairy, 51 percent are immigrants. Restrictions on immigration are shrinking the workforce and driving up production costs. The Labor Department said missing workers “results in significant disruptions to production costs and threatens the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S consumers.”
Consumer behavior is compounding the problem. A Guardian poll shows 75 percent of Americans say prices are rising sharply. Perception drives decisions. Families cut spending, businesses raise prices preemptively, and savings are drawn down faster. Even modest shortages can magnify into regional spikes of five to eight percent in food prices over months.
The next shock could appear anywhere. A delayed harvest in the Midwest, a disrupted distribution route, and rising supermarket prices could collide.