When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down.
“What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades near ~25× forward earnings, well above its long-term median closer to ~16×”
FULL ANALYSIS BELOW! https://t.co/ByeVWudpBC
— The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) December 24, 2025
"Almost every major Wall Street bank slashed its S&P 500 outlook in reaction to the Trump … Then they all had to bring their targets back up as the policy was relaxed, corporate profit expectations rebounded and stock prices took off"@geoffreymorgan pic.twitter.com/a53rAGqEue
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) December 24, 2025
“At 45× earnings, $NVDA is priced for smooth, persistent growth. If the market simply revalues Nvidia at a still-generous 20× multiple, the stock would trade closer to $80 per share ( a possible -50% drawdown in 2026),”
Full report below! https://t.co/UjjRNp6YNK
— The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) December 24, 2025
The three longest and dominant US CAPEX cycles suggest a CAPEX downturn until early 2036. pic.twitter.com/YTrb8NAeES
— BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles) December 23, 2025
The US stock market follows the CAPEX waves.
Sometimes CAPEX peaks are coincidental with the stock market peaks and sometimes CAPEX peaks lead. https://t.co/1RbFK6Y5T1
— BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles) December 23, 2025
Let's examine US capex cycles.
The 9-year (35 quarters) cycle is one of the dominant long-term CAPEX cycles. It has already topped, and the next trough is expected in early 2028.
We will later observe a relationship between CAPEX and the stock market. Stay tuned. https://t.co/lhYJSLGqM1
— BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles) December 23, 2025