Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The biggest test for SpaceX might not be Starship. It might be simple supply and demand. After becoming one of the largest IPOs in history, SpaceX is now facing its first major lockup expiration. And the numbers are ridiculous. The first major unlock could release around 911.5 million shares. That’s about 142% of the original …
The obesity drug market is booming. But the stock market is treating these two companies very differently. Eli Lilly is now worth roughly $1.08 trillion. Novo Nordisk sits around $199 billion. That’s an $881 billion gap between two companies leading one of the fastest-growing drug markets in history. The obvious question is why. Eli Lilly …
SpaceX IPO’d around $1.75–1.8T valuation (priced at $135/share), raised record ~$75B. Stock jumped fast, pushing market cap over $2T+ quickly. 2025 revenue: ~$18.7B (mostly Starlink). Reported net loss in 2025 (around $5B range in filings, partly due to heavy capex on Starship, xAI integration, etc.). Starlink itself is profitable/growing fast. Valuation is extremely high vs …
by ragingbull10 I’m genuinely trying to understand the math. Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion today. Current numbers are approximately: Revenue: ~$100B/year Net income: ~$4B/year Revenue growth: roughly flat over the past year P/E: ~300x Let’s assume Tesla achieves enormous success. By 2035: FSD works. Robotaxis are widely deployed. Optimus becomes a real business. Energy …
Market price climb 34% this month despite massive share dilution and erratic energy cost Company report show $150 million in new debt for data center hardware purchase Institutional holder dump 12 million share since January while retail buyer FOMO trigger rally Mining margin shrink fast due to high hash rate difficulty and rising electricity fee …
Goldman Sachs is circulating aggressive growth projections to drive interest in the upcoming SpaceX initial public offering. The bank claims revenue at the artificial intelligence division will jump 100-fold to 322 billion dollars by 2030. Total company revenue is projected to hit 474 billion dollars in that same window. This forecast serves as the primary …
SpaceX targets a $135 share price at a $1.77 trillion total value. Morningstar cuts the company value to $780 billion, exposing a huge gap. STMicroelectronics grows data center sales to $1 billion to survive sector swings. Alphabet stock drops 10% from its high as investors pull back. Analysts say the company is worth less than …
SpaceX IPO prospectus has been released SpaceX’s official IPO filing sets up a likely Nasdaq debut next month. Goldman Sachs is lead left on the prospectus, followed by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase. SpaceX was valued at $1.25 trillion in February after merging with xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, meaning …
Insiders and employees salivate to cash out after years locked in, exit liquidity event incoming… via WSB: I’ve been following the SpaceX IPO for over 10 years and plan to put a significant amount in and hold for 10–15 years. That said the current implied valuation already looks very high, and I amm struggling to …
Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: “We’re 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant …
AXP is being framed as a steady compounder at a reasonable multiple, but that stability depends on more moving parts than the headline growth suggests. Earnings growth at ~14% over 1Y and 5Y, with a P/E of 19.77 and forward P/E of 16.03, is pricing continuity rather than acceleration. That continuity assumption matters because American …
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/google-plans-invest-40-billion-155018538.html Google will invest $10 billion in Anthropic PBC, with another $30 billion potentially to follow, strengthening the relationship between two companies that are at once partners and rivals in the race to build artificial intelligence. Anthropic said that Google is committing to invest $10 billion now in cash at a $350 billion valuation, the …
bro was right. Atlassian down 75%. HubSpot down 69%. Figma down 86%. Almost all of them down 30–70% from their 52-week highs. AI is literally eating software alive and repricing every company in real time. SaaS is cooked fr 😭 https://t.co/NsOxRTLLEp pic.twitter.com/Xk8QBCTJD3 — shirish (@shiri_shh) April 10, 2026 Anthropic's valuation just surged past OpenAI'sin private …
139% Above Its Mean. Every Prior Peak Collapsed." This is the Q Ratio — the broadest measure of US stock market valuation vs. the replacement cost of assets. Right now? 139% above its long-run average. We just touched 147% — above the 3 Standard Deviation line. Here's what… pic.twitter.com/1kb91n7nCV — The Economic LongWave (@TheELongWave) March …
OpenAI said it raised $110 billion in its latest funding round. Amazon invested $50 billion, Nvidia invested $30 billion and SoftBank invested $30 billion in the round, OpenAI said Friday. OpenAI continues to grow at a rapid pace, but the AI giant faces intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google. OpenAI has closed a $110 billion …
The reality is that both OpenAI and Anthropic are going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars just trying to out compute each other over the next decade. Instead of guessing which massive software model wins the war at a $500B+ premium, the real opportunity is buying the… — 5to9_M.J. (@5to9_MJ) February 14, 2026 $1T …
Everyone’s ignoring cheap defensives again and history warns this won’t end well. This is INSANE: OpenAI is paying $1.5 MILLION per employee in stock-based compensation to 4,000 workers. This is ~46% of the firm’s projected 2025 revenue. This is 34x higher than the avg employee at major tech companies before they went public. 👇https://t.co/MysjOVDWbj — …
When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down. “What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades near ~25× forward earnings, well above its long-term median closer to ~16×” FULL ANALYSIS BELOW! …
THE RECKONING Wall Street’s oldest warning system just triggered. The Shiller PE ratio crossed 40.16 this week. In 154 years of recorded market history, this threshold has been breached only three times. The first was December 1999. The second was November 2021. The third is now. What followed the first: a 49% collapse. What followed …
Nvidia just crossed $5 trillion, and the world barely looked up. It’s the kind of number that should freeze you for a second. A single company now holds more paper value than the entire economy of Germany. It’s larger than Japan, India, the U.K., and every other country on Earth except the United States and …
It’s their fastest-growing, most concentrated segment. If one pulls back, everything suffers, including margins, hiring, and priorities. What happens when one or both of these customers stop buying due to e.g.recession fears. The stock is 5 – 10% of major indices.https://t.co/rrXevbQqYm — Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) September 15, 2025 It is not only a Bubble, it …
U.S. Stock Market at its most expensive valuation since the Great Depression 🚨 Probably Fine? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/JVCijfR202 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 11, 2025 Guess what the biggest driver of this stock market rally has been? Leverage. For the first time ever, margin debt has topped $1 trillion and has ballooned +25% over the past year. Fully one-fifth of …
Retail is buying the top. Insiders are selling the future. The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.15x sales, its highest valuation in history. $SPX Video: https://t.co/eJcpxsTX2d pic.twitter.com/cNKndmlmFR — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 10, 2025 Corporate Insiders are dumping as the stock market hits all-time highs 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/BOHwqeItU3 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 10, 2025 🚨US …
S&P 500 hits its most expensive valuation in 4 years 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/afbN5BNL4o — Barchart (@Barchart) August 5, 2025 For those who believe the S&P 500 is reasonably valued. What an illusion. pic.twitter.com/1pRE3IHX7v — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) August 5, 2025 Based on July‘s S&P 500 monthly data, the market is OVERVALUED somewhere in the range of …
They hit $1 billion. But the multiple still demands miracles. Palantir posted second-quarter revenue of $1 billion, up 48% from last year. Earnings per share came in at $0.16, beating consensus by $0.02. U.S. commercial nearly doubled to $306 million. Government contracts jumped 53% to $426 million. Total contract value surged 140% to $2.27 billion. …
Mike Wilson sees setup repeating as sentiment peaks. The last time Extreme Greed was this extended was in March 2024.$SPX went up about 1% more before spending the next 15 or so trading days dropping 6%. Proved to be a massive buying opportunity. And this fits well with Mike Wilson’s narrative. De ja vu? pic.twitter.com/HoiTwY8TLe …
A new startup, founded and led by for OpenAI CTO Mira Murati just raised the largest seed round ever; $2B. Her company, Thinking Machines Lab, has an estimated valuation of $10B based on the fundraise. Here’s the kicker, Thinking Machine Labs has no product. All it has is a vague stated goal “to make AI …
Palantir $PLTR at the highest sales multiple in its history, over 83x price/sales right here. There is no company this big valued this richly that has worked out long-term. Bubble. 🫧 pic.twitter.com/MuIdiCc6gd — Just a Dude Who Invests (@DudeWhoInvests) June 15, 2025 Meanwhile…. Like these…?! $MSTR https://t.co/SWBnQAHm34 pic.twitter.com/QmMSuptDn5 — James Chanos (@RealJimChanos) June 15, 2025
Also https://t.co/0RzE8ZIQeM — Abhijeet Patra (@abhijeetpatra88) June 11, 2025
(2) It’s like claiming that your house, which increased in market value last year from $450,000 to $500,000, is actually worth $1.5 million, because you also have to put a 20x multiple on the $50,000 increase! — James Chanos (@RealJimChanos) June 10, 2025