S&P 500 hits its most expensive valuation in 4 years 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/afbN5BNL4o
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 5, 2025
For those who believe the S&P 500 is reasonably valued.
What an illusion. pic.twitter.com/1pRE3IHX7v
— Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) August 5, 2025
Based on July‘s S&P 500 monthly data, the market is OVERVALUED somewhere in the range of 111% to 183%, depending on the indicator. 👇🏼
If anyone here is saying that the market is not overvalued, unfollow them. pic.twitter.com/eklJTn15x2
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 5, 2025
This is what happened to profits in the 1920s and 30s when big tariff rises hit home
Profit shocks the size of which we have only seen in the GFC in the century since. pic.twitter.com/PBpovW1IF1
— Ian Harnett (@IanRHarnett) August 5, 2025
US economic data increasingly has the whiff of stagflation. Today's ISM services report showed little growth, but businesses reported that prices paid rose at the fastest pace since October 2022 (chart below.) Meanwhile, employment fell into contraction. pic.twitter.com/hZAtDh2uPZ
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 5, 2025
It's like those companies with a 147,755 P/S ratio — they claim they'll reach a $1 trillion market cap, but maybe not until 2150. pic.twitter.com/1xbrSQTxT2
— Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) August 6, 2025
Trump to announce wave of new tariffs on pharma EU and chips while teasing Fed chair pick and taking Bessent off the table
TRUMP: MIGHT ANNOUNCE FED CHAIR FAIRLY SOON TAKING BESSENT OFF LIST TARIFF OF 35% ON EU IF DOESN'T MEET OBLIGATIONS WILL ANNOUNCE PHARMA TARIFFS WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE ANNOUNCING ON SEMICONDUCTORS AND CHIPS IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO PHARMA TARIFF WILL BE SMALL, WILL GO TO…
— JEFFERY @TriggeredCapital (@trentkelp) August 6, 2025
Valuations are now higher than in 96% of all quarters over the past 141 years. That’s according to data cited by Yahoo Finance, which called the current setup a “bubble warning.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bubble-warning-p-500-only-183839316.html
The S&P 500 is trading at 21 times estimated earnings for 2025, about 35% above its historical average. Bank of America says the index looks “statistically expensive” on all 20 valuation metrics it tracks. https://invezz.com/news/2025/06/14/sp-500-is-expensive-on-all-valuation-metrics-but-dont-sweat-it-strategist-says/
The rally has outpaced fundamentals. Since April, the index is up 20%, while earnings growth remains flat and macro risks are rising. That’s not momentum. That’s froth.
The composition argument is wearing thin. Analysts defending the valuation say today’s S&P 500 is more tech-heavy and efficient than in past decades. But that doesn’t explain why multiples are rising while margins are falling.
Tariffs, rate pressure, and inventory distortions haven’t hit yet. Many companies front-loaded inventory to dodge trade costs. That buffer is temporary. When it fades, earnings will show the real impact.
Speculation is back. New stock issues are surging. Bitcoin is at record highs. Retail flows are chasing momentum. The market is behaving like conditions are perfect. They’re not.
The S&P 500 is priced for perfection in a cycle that’s anything but. When expectations crack, the unwind won’t be gradual.