Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Late 1999 saw similar volatility expansion with fading volume before the dot com peak rolled over. The erratic movements the S&P 500 is displaying right now are deeply worrisome. When wild, erratic price action appears during extremely elevated valuations exactly as we witnessed in the final stages of the dot-com bubble it has historically been …
BREAKING: DDR5 memory prices crash up to 30% after Google unveiled TurboQuant. Google TurboQuant cuts AI memory usage to 1/6, raising concerns about memory demand. Memory prices are up 106% since 2024 lows, but are now falling. 32GB DDR5 on Amazon fell from about $490 to $379.99, while 16GB DDR5 fell from about $260 to …
$PLTR might be the most overvalued stock of all times, says The Economist. It doesn’t get to be a genius to see this.$PLTR Free Cash Flow: $1.7 billion$PLTR Market Cap: $412 billion$UNH Free Cash Flow: $25 billion$UNH Market Cap: $280 billion That says something. pic.twitter.com/1vNsb13lEL — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) August 19, 2025 1/ Howard Marks …
S&P 500 hits its most expensive valuation in 4 years 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/afbN5BNL4o — Barchart (@Barchart) August 5, 2025 For those who believe the S&P 500 is reasonably valued. What an illusion. pic.twitter.com/1pRE3IHX7v — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) August 5, 2025 Based on July‘s S&P 500 monthly data, the market is OVERVALUED somewhere in the range of …
Bank of America just dropped a massive warning that U.S. growth stocks hover in a bubble bigger than the dot‑com crash. A recent note shows about 37 % of the S&P 500 is tied up in ten firms alone, near the highest level ever recorded and edging into record territory. The average P/E for those top names clocks …
AI Bubble Today Is Bigger Than the IT Bubble in the 1990s The difference between the IT bubble in the 1990s and the AI bubble today is that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than they were in the 1990s, see chart below. APOLLO – Torsten Slok I have …
Waiting to hear the narrative – falling yields are good for stocks because they will push up valuations… pic.twitter.com/7G1PW53E0c — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) June 24, 2025 MORGAN STANLEY EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER SEVEN RATE CUTS IN 2026, STARTING IN MARCH, TAKING TERMINAL RATE TO 2.5%-2.75% — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 25, 2025
What stage? 👇🏼 “Pennystocks just hit a record 47.4% of total market volume.“ – @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/S6i7GDQ4aC — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 17, 2025 Tech Stocks relative to M2 Money Supply 🚨 Dot Com Bubble vs. Now 🤯🤔 pic.twitter.com/fVJLy7HCuB — Barchart (@Barchart) June 17, 2025 Big “risk off” sign. https://t.co/RKPFDQegTA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June …
With the equity market surge yesterday, market based pricing of growth expectations has nearly fully recovered the drop this year, and is just a couple point off highs. pic.twitter.com/UeaOxWYTDC — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025 Long dated real yields are at their highs of the post-covid cycle. pic.twitter.com/4D4xVU4WhS — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, …
Private Credit is where the next systemic financial risk is going to emerge from. Just a complete scam industry. Fake valuations. Pretending things are par when they are clearly not. Lending to garbage companies. And… it’s all being financed by debt from commercial banks (since banks can’t lend like this anymore after 2008). Private credit …
BUY THE DIP AFTER MOODY’S DOWNGRADE: MORGAN STANLEY’S WILSON Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the recent U.S. stock selloff after Moody’s credit downgrade as a buying opportunity, driven more by interest rate fears than fundamentals. He notes that Moody’s is the last major agency to downgrade U.S. debt—following moves that began back in 2011. Rising …
The Magnificent 7 has officially entered a Bear Market after falling more than 20% from the Peak 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/DODMqdplG6 — Barchart (@Barchart) April 1, 2025 NASDAQ 100 valuations are normalizing towards long-term averages pic.twitter.com/Kb8Gz7nkqC — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) March 31, 2025
A record-breaking wave of retail investor buying has just been witnessed—an unprecedented surge that eclipses the previous peak from early 2022, a period notorious for marking a major market top. Now, this trend is showing unmistakable signs of fatigue. History is offering a chilling reminder: a similar pattern once unfolded, culminating in a brief blow-off …
by AdDisastrous7191 China’s #DeepSeek could represent the biggest threat to US equity markets as the company seems to have built a groundbreaking AI model at an extremely low price and w/o having access to cutting-edge chips, calling into question the utility of the hundreds of billions worth of capex being poured into this industry. DeepSeek was built …
#recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition https://t.co/p7cgcLzyrT pic.twitter.com/So5TXB58ic — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) December 11, 2024 Big cap Tech performance last 8 trading days $GOOGL 14%$AAPL 5.5% $MSFT 6% $META 10% $TSLA 18% $NFLX 6% — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 11, 2024 Bitcoin rippingGold rippingMost stocks ripping. Why? Because the Fed is a farce and not restrictive and …
Fed injected 100million into the banking system this morning. Its probably nothin. pic.twitter.com/HzOJdkbUZW — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 10, 2024 They injected 2.3billion back few weeks ago. Ongoing liquidity crisis that will get extremely worse. — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 10, 2024 The blood indicator is VERY close to cross its 100-week MA. …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1858524311327494623 #SPX #SP500 $SPY #ES_F #stocks 📉 🥶https://t.co/IGcpaYskRs pic.twitter.com/0wpQ7cV6LS — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) November 18, 2024
Disconnect between Fed 🏛 & S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/V4HEctJ1O8 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 3, 2024 10 largest stocks trade at P/E of 26x vs. 47x at peak of DotCom pic.twitter.com/9K2BTuGSGm — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 3, 2024 A stark dissonance grips the financial markets as the gap between the Federal Fund Rate and …
Call me crazy but I believe we are in the process of forming a major double top on Nasdaq. Valuations don't grow to the sky and the inflation problem is far from over. Today's weakness in megacaps despite the Fed pivot is the tell. pic.twitter.com/c2nPSjifJD — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 14, 2023 The reason …
It’s probably going to get worse for a while before it gets better. I don't think we are being told the truth about true economic data like inflation or jobs numbers 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/L6xrm2sBpp — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) October 20, 2023 Stock market valuations stand at one of the three great bubble extremes in U.S. …
by Chris Black Tesla is already worth more than every other automobile company on Earth combined. Waymo and other robotaxi experiments have already proved that the idea is pointless and we are still very far away from any real success. This reads like pumping a neckbeard crypto to $50 billion simply because it exists. How …
by confoundedinterest17 Commercial real estate (CRE), particularly office space, reminds me of the Arthur Brown tune “Fire!” except that Jerome Powell of The Federal Reserve is the God of Hellfire! While fighting inflation caused by … The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending (aka, Bidenomics). Call this the Over, Under, Sideways Down economy. The top 1% are doing quite …
Lender moves to foreclose on 20-story S.F. office tower owned by WeWork venture The foreclosure lawsuit seeks to force payment of the debt, which now totals $250 million. Shady numbers. Wells Fargo increased their credit loss allowances by $949 million in their commercial loan portfolio per its earnings report. A huge skyscraper here in Baltimore …
CRE Panic Hits Baltimore As Second Office Tower Dumped At 69% Discount https://t.co/MyjQjAISAQ — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 20, 2023 On Tuesday, we asked: Is this the start of a commercial real estate firesale in crime-ridden Baltimore City? And to our surprise, it appears so. Let’s begin with our report on Tuesday when The Baltimore Sun revealed …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2023/comp25750.pdf SEC-registered investment adviser Infinity Q engaged in a fraudulent scheme that inflated by more than $1 billion the value of assets held by a mutual fund (the “Mutual Fund”) and a hedge fund (the “Private Fund”) Infinity Q advised (collectively, the “Infinity Q Funds” or the “Funds”). From at least February 2017 through …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20230601a1.pdf Under the proposed rule, the agencies would require institutions that engage in covered transactions to adopt policies, practices, procedures, and control systems to ensure that AVMs adhere to quality control standards designed to ensure the credibility and integrity of valuations. The proposed standards are designed to ensure a high level of confidence …