With the equity market surge yesterday, market based pricing of growth expectations has nearly fully recovered the drop this year, and is just a couple point off highs. pic.twitter.com/UeaOxWYTDC
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025
Long dated real yields are at their highs of the post-covid cycle. pic.twitter.com/4D4xVU4WhS
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025
And despite this relatively extreme market pricing, professionals looking bottoms up have a much more pessimistic perspective on the road ahead.
Economists see softer growth for the next couple years. pic.twitter.com/VEYkDEmVp6
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025
Global earnings revisions are also quite weak, even with a small uptick in how negative they have been in the last couple weeks. pic.twitter.com/0NHsLvp9Ni
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025
Asset markets are pricing in one of the best possible outcomes ahead while those folks looking bottoms up are expecting a notable deceleration ahead.
That's a divergence I've never seen in professional career outside of cyclical bottoms (which occur for understandable reasons).
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025
Either bottoms up analysts staring at the incoming data are taking an extremely pessimistic view, or they are right and the markets are wildly offside.
For macro investors, making a call on which is right will likely be the make or break trade for the rest of '25.
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025
Tremors begin. https://t.co/DRjt4SzmDp pic.twitter.com/AinYleKzPq
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 28, 2025
If you are looking for some #bearish signals in a #bullish #market, then pay attention to #puts, or the lack thereof. "Put Hate" is back which is generally a good contrarian signal for a pullback or correction. (Probably not until mid-June though).
h/t @themarketear pic.twitter.com/Aa37lY3HWb— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 28, 2025
November 22, 2024 – we wrote that #Tariffs are NOT #inflationary despite the mainstream narrative. (Link below)
May 28, 2025 – Goldman Sachs now agrees
"Despite [the UMich] concerns, we see the current situation as less concerning than the 2022 scare. The main reason is that we… pic.twitter.com/37jvCDYKgd— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 28, 2025
although every year the realized growth rate is single digit. analysts/market still assume it will grow double digit 12month forward. what if it will actually contract 12month forward?
— jude jin (@judejinjin) May 28, 2025
Stock Market routes happen… 30% to 50% retracements are normal. Reversion to the mean is an essential function for prices of a healthy Market of any asset. Eventually, we will learn this lesson again and in grand fashion. And when we look back, it will seem perfectly obvious.
— Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) May 28, 2025