Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Advanced Micro Devices reported first-quarter earnings Tuesday that topped expectations, while the company’s revenue forecast also exceeded estimates as demand soars for chips to power artificial intelligence workloads. The stock ripped 20% higher in premarket trading on Wednesday. Here’s how the chipmaker did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the quarter ended in March: EPS: $1.37 vs. $1.29 …
The data giant just released a monster Q1 report after the bell, reporting revenue of $1.63 billion and crushing the $1.54 billion Wall Street target… Earnings came in at 33 cents per share, well above the 28 cent consensus, as the company’s Rule of 40 score hit a staggering 145%… US Commercial revenue skyrocketed 133% …
The U.S. economy is currently a “hollowed-out” powerhouse. While the 2% GDP surge looks decent on a teleprompter, new data confirms that nearly three-quarters of that growth is just the tech giants frantically buying server racks and H100 chips to avoid falling behind in the AI arms race. Outside the Silicon Valley bubble, the “real” …
Earnings beat but everything else is collapsing now. Why would people buy houses when AI is replacing their jobs. Here are the numbers for $SPY earnings +27.8% vs +13.9% est. Big tech is absolutely smashing analyst estimates pic.twitter.com/J2ytNQYuqr — Simplifying Stocks, CPA (@FinFluentialx) May 1, 2026 Tech layoffs are skyrocketing: Tech companies announced 81,747 layoffs …
AXP is being framed as a steady compounder at a reasonable multiple, but that stability depends on more moving parts than the headline growth suggests. Earnings growth at ~14% over 1Y and 5Y, with a P/E of 19.77 and forward P/E of 16.03, is pricing continuity rather than acceleration. That continuity assumption matters because American …
This is not a simple “bull vs bear” earnings setup It is a fight between clean-looking unit economics and fragile distribution control The bull case is built on a very tight story Fast margin expansionHigh gross profitabilityRising ARPUStrong cash positionBuyback authorization On paper, it looks like a business that has already “solved” monetization But that …
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/google-plans-invest-40-billion-155018538.html Google will invest $10 billion in Anthropic PBC, with another $30 billion potentially to follow, strengthening the relationship between two companies that are at once partners and rivals in the race to build artificial intelligence. Anthropic said that Google is committing to invest $10 billion now in cash at a $350 billion valuation, the …
via run_midnight I started writing this post with a simple question, can RDDT hit a $1 T market cap by 2030? Yesterday, I ended up posting a copy of this with incorrect data. I had to repost to correct the problem, so I apologize. This post will examine RDDT’s revenue growth rate, expense growth rate, …
Housing markets don't all of a sudden crash. First they freeze. No one buying, more and more sellers slowly piling up. Why does this take place? Because home owners are broke morons with 90% of their net worth in something they didn't earn, didn't "invest" in….. They… pic.twitter.com/7lLefputWI — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 24, 2026 …
US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in February, significantly missing the 0.5% decline expectation as transportation demand craters. The manufacturing floor is falling out while the Fed stays hawkish. This is the “hard landing” signal the bulls are desperately trying to ignore. Bank of America warns of a 0.9% March CPI jump driven by a …
By Peter Reagan Sometimes life doesn’t space things out for you. It stacks them. A broken appliance. A medical scare. A bill you weren’t expecting. None of those things are unusual on their own – but when they arrive together, that’s when it starts to feel overwhelming. Lately, I’ve been thinking about how much the …
At first glance, it looks contradictory. Rent growth slows, but rent still feels unaffordable. The reason is simple. Growth and level are not the same thing. Recent data shows that rents have softened in many markets. In 2025, asking rents declined year over year in 74 out of 150 крупных metro areas tracked by RealPage. …
Job creation in the US has slowed to essentially zero, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday as the Fed released its latest economic projections, which included slightly higher economic growth than previously projected and little change to the unemployment rate. Altogether, Powell said, central bankers see “a degree of stability” in the labor market. …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
Absolutely wild when you consider that the cost of jet fuel has risen 50% since the Iran conflict began. They are claiming they see 10% revenue growth on strong demand, yet make no mention of the potential impact that increased fuel costs will have on these projections, only… https://t.co/ic90JUwjnw — Michael Bento (@MichaelPBento) March 17, …
New economic data released today delivered a troubling combination for the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy. The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7 percent, far below the 1.4 percent economists expected and marking the second weakest growth reading in the past 3.5 years. At the same time, inflation pressures …
First of all 540$ itself is a question mark — vg (@Gurumoorty) February 27, 2026
by confoundedinterest17 The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain (YoY) for December 2025, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month. Average hourly earnings now at 3.73% YoY, higher than home price growth. Home price growth exploded following The Federal governments’ Covid-related spending splurge. Geographic divergence widened …
This isn’t just “jobless growth.” It’s a signal the system is quietly hollowing out. 🚨What is happening with the US economy? US non-farm payrolls increased just +0.1% YoY in 2025, the weakest job market expansion in 22 YEARS, excluding recessions. At the same time, US GDP expanded +2.2% in 2025, creating a massive divergence between …
For those arguing the GDP data "isn't that bad" due to the gov't shutdown, the ACTUAL data DISAGREES. The GDP Deflator came in at 3.6% – meaning most of the 1.4% GDP was inflation, NOT real growth. Forget the shutdown excuse. The weakness is real, and productivity is terrible. https://t.co/W13nd3nZAh pic.twitter.com/f88eUhdNRX — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) …
Yes yes. pic.twitter.com/ZZ06WxcjUt — Z Ghost. (@ZGhostbook) February 20, 2026
STOCKHOLM, Feb 19 (Reuters) – Swedish “buy now, pay later” services provider and online bank Klarna swung to a net loss in the fourth quarter and gave weaker-than-expected guidance for 2026 as fast growth also hiked costs, sending the U.S.-listed group’s shares down 23% in early trade on Thursday. Klarna’s net loss for the October …
1 in 4 unemployed Americans is stuck in the trap. After 6 months:→ Employer callback rates drop ~45%→ ATS systems flag the gap automatically→ Network connections go cold→ Savings run out The job market seems to be structurally punishing people for being in it too long.… pic.twitter.com/QqSI4m4Osb — RANTZINE (@rant_zine) February 17, 2026 Factcheck: Yes, …
via confoundedinterest17 The gap between 2s and 10s Treasuies is now the widest it’s been since early 2022. According to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now report, the current real GDP growth rate is 3.7%. But the yield curve is a forward looking measure.
“US job growth in 2025 was the weakest outside recessions in two decades” 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/8AwAHmx6Dc — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 11, 2026 ⚠️THIS IS INSANE: Private education and health services accounted for 780,000 of all jobs added over the last 12 months. Excluding these roles, the US economy LOST -350,000 jobs over the past …
via notayesmanseconomics The twist and turns of economic activity so far in 2026 have impacted the Euro area but let me start with something that feels like the tide coming in. Put like that, it sounds like we are introducing the digital euro as a defensive measure against something or someone. That isn’t really correct. …
via confoundedinterest17 Keep on printing money. It seems that home price growth requires The Fed to keep printing money. S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (“November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. …
U.S. Population Growth Slows Sharply as Immigration Numbers Plunge New census estimates show the effects of falling birthrates and President Trump’s anti-immigration policies. As his term continues, immigration is expected to drop even further. The United States population grew last year at one of the slowest rates in its history, according to new numbers released …
It's starting to look like maybe an AI driven productivity boom. pic.twitter.com/UC6fxl3NcJ — infinite monkey (@RobertDobalina7) January 9, 2026 Inflation is falling off a cliff. It now sits at 1.9% The Federal Reserve must cut rates by another 100 basis points. pic.twitter.com/fitTVZs6lf — Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) January 9, 2026 JUST IN: The U.S. economy …
