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The economy might hum along on paper, but real demand and real buying power are trapped at the top. US consumer spending is extremely concentrated among high-income households: Households in the top 20% of the income distribution now reflect ~39% of all spending on goods and services. Their concentration is …
via notayesmanseconomics Today the European Central Bank has a policy meeting and not much is expected apart from them wishing everyone a Merry Christmas. Actually in its own way that is a defeat as surely it should be Felix Navidad. But underneath the surface a lot is going on and …
Weak demand, falling property investment, and slumping consumption. China’s retail sales and industrial output missed forecasts in November, highlighting weak domestic demand. Fixed-asset and property investment slumped further, marking the sharpest downturn since 2020. Policymakers pledged support, but analysts remain cautious as consumption and jobs stay under pressure. https://invezz.com/news/2025/12/15/chinas-economic-slowdown-deepens-in-november-as-weak-demand-weigh-on-growth/ h/t …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1998841788585365948 Fed Chair Powell: Total PCE rises rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects… pic.twitter.com/q8MPm5lCA6 — …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is goin’ home! The hysteria about tariffs is nonexistant. Latest estimate: 3.5 percent — December 05, 2025 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. …
Read more: https://t.co/2YyHIZcWMw. — More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) November 25, 2025
MORGAN STANLEY: BUY THE DIP NOW FOR 2026 GAINS Michael Wilson says the current stock market pressure is a tactical correction caused by Fed liquidity jitters, NOT fundamental deterioration. 🔸 The damage “under the surface” suggests the correction is nearing its end. 🔸 Wilson remains highly bullish, expecting the Fed …
SEC. LUTNICK: THE U.S. GDP WILL HIT 6% “The construction jobs alone, you can’t invest $3 trillion a year without driving our GDP off the charts. You are gonna see fours, you’re gonna see fives, and you’re gonna see 6% GDP growth under this president because the factories are coming …
https://twitter.com/tweet4Anna_NAFO/status/1982936867071832397 Russian businesses’ profits fell 8.3%, or 1.6 trillion rubles ($19.9 billion), in January-August, according to Rosstat. “As economic growth slows and revenues shrink, Moscow can no longer ramp up fiscal stimulus and is instead imposing austerity measures that threaten to further choke the civilian economy,” said Alexander Kolyandr, a …
The entire economy runs on credit, and when it seizes up, this whole economy goes caput. Banks warning about private credit quality while funding its growth: Wells Fargo: $60B lent to private creditBofA: $33BPNC: $30BJPM: $22BTotal: Nearly $300B Can’t raise alarms about cockroaches when you’re the one feeding them pic.twitter.com/avZSHXZkR4 …
Junk bonds are high-risk corporate debts offering higher returns to investors. The chart shows their yields (interest rates) had been falling for 4 months—a positive sign of lower perceived risk—but recently spiked to 6.84%, breaking that downtrend. Implications: Rising yields… — Grok (@grok) October 15, 2025 Junk bonds are high-risk …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Consumer credit is weak in nominal terms and negative in real terms. Nominal Consumer Credit, Data from the Fed, Chart by Mish Nominal consumer credit has started to flatline. In real terms, credit is declining. Real Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars Real Consumer …
The American economy is not drifting. It is running headfirst into a wall and the passengers are just realizing the brakes are gone. Seventy percent of Americans say the economy is on the wrong track, but that doesn’t capture the full collapse in confidence. It is not just pessimism. It …
via notayesmanseconomics It is a theme of these times that we see Western governments struggling. We started the week with the effective appointment of a new Japanese Prime Minister and we also had the fall of a French Prime Minister accompanied by a desperate attempts by Prime Minister Macron to …
Politicians celebrate GDP gains as proof of a strong economy. But if “growth” just means paying more for groceries, gas, and utilities, are we really better off? Here’s why GDP is a mirage – and why what happens to “the economy” may not apply to you… By Peter Reagan Growing …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, If “growth” is all that matters, that leads to depending on credit and asset bubbles, which are self-liquidating in ways few see because, well, it’s complicated. Many people anticipate the demise of fiat currencies, for good reasons. This is the motivation for calls to …
The second the U.S. went off the Gold Standard, workers have gotten their wealth stolen from them via suppressed wage growth byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Home prices need to fall -40% or incomes need to rise +60% just to return the housing market to 2019 levels. Generational crisis. pic.twitter.com/wFkvoKjUhL — Spencer Hakimian …
Beneath the noise of campaign slogans and media distractions, a serious shift is underway, one that shakes the heartbeat of corporate reporting and forces space for long-term thinking. Donald Trump did not float a suggestion. He issued a command. He bypassed regulators, skipped committees, and posted the demand directly on …
Adobe sits at a strange crossroads where the numbers shout strength but the market refuses to listen and the gap between reality and perception is growing wider by the day. Cash flow per share climbs steadily while the stock price lingers at its lowest valuation ever. Subscription revenue continues to …
6800 Chinese companies reported 0% revenue growth in the first half despite Chinese GDP allegedly "growing" at 5% – Goldman https://t.co/xtt5pdYHMK — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 10, 2025 🇨🇳 China Overnight Economic Data: *CPI M/M: Miss 🔴*CPI Y/Y: Miss 🔴*PPI: In Line China deflation fears are getting worse. pic.twitter.com/I3uxxpS5Kk — Jesse …
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Electricity generation USA vs China. pic.twitter.com/Qg5uJEaZdF — The Data of Everything (@TheDataHubX) September 1, 2025
The market’s heartbeat depends on one stock, and that stock just got a cold. $NVDA's "explosive growth is inevitably set to slow and Wednesday's results will be forensically examined for bumps in the road ahead."@Reuters pic.twitter.com/hCCFZaQMZ5 — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 27, 2025 Sam Altman said AI “may be in …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has revived a topic that had gone quiet for a while and so let me hand you over to Le Monde. François Bayrou has chosen not to endure political instability but to precipitate it in order to better extricate himself from it. On Monday, August 25, …
Cold beer on a Friday night? Maybe non-alcoholic. Only 54% of drinking-age Americans consume alcohol today, according to a recent poll from Gallup, the lowest proportion since the survey began in 1939. Even those who do drink are partaking less, by a factor of nearly half. The US is drinking less, …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Let’s discuss the latest e-commerce sales numbers. Please consider the E-Commerce Retail Sales Report for the second quarter of 2025. The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced that the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation, …
by confoundedinterest17 Is This My Free One-Way Bus Ticket To Cleveland? Cleveland is leading the nation in home price growth at 4.7% YoY. Followed closely by Hartford CT, Louisville KY, Detroit MI and Buffalo NY. Well, if The Fed would stop printing money (M2), home prices would decline. But The Fed will …
Small businesses in the U.S. are facing big challenges. Health insurance costs keep rising. Premiums for firms with fewer than 50 employees went from $20,236 in 2019 to $25,167 in 2024 (https://www.kff.org/report-section/ehbs-2024-section-1-cost-of-health-insurance/). The average family premium was $7,529 in 2023 (https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2024/dec/trends-employer-health-insurance-costs-2014-2023). Deductibles are high too, averaging $5,074 a year per …
Unemployment claims are climbing fastest for higher-income households. If white-collar stress builds, markets should brace for slower discretionary spending, a key driver for growth stocks tied to consumer demand. pic.twitter.com/uKpZZ4sNzN — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) August 16, 2025 A Bank of America Institute report shows higher-income households claiming unemployment …
“It’s a retail darling… I like Alex Karp, I like his politics, I like him as a person… But even if Palantir was the greatest company ever created and you slapped the highest possible multiple on it, the stock is still trading above that. It has gotten absurd.” https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/25/08/47107749/gamestop-short-seller-andrew-left-is-taking-on-retail-investors-again-now-says-palantir-stock-is-beyond-overvalued “You …
U.S. July CPI: Core Inflation Hits 3.1 Percent Year Over Year Headline CPI rose 0.2 percent month over month, matching expectations. Year-over-year inflation came in at 2.7 percent, just below the 2.8 percent estimate. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent month over month and 3.1 percent year over year, beating the …