Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
UBS quietly nuked every rate cut fantasy while the suits still scream everything is fine. https://x.com/sayonarashorts/status/2052106342840815922 Oil at $100 for months quietly wrecks the global economy without ever needing to hit $200. Here’s the reality. Oil doesn’t need to go to $130, $150 or $200. It just needs to stay around $100 a barrel for …
The latest CPI data highlights a stubborn 3.3% annual inflation rate today, energy costs are the primary driver of the middle class squeeze… Gasoline prices jumped 21.2% in the latest monthly window, the Hormuz blockade is effectively taxing every American at the pump… Shelter inflation slowed to 3.0%, the slowest pace since 2021, but core …
The alliance is holding “intimate conversations” with film and TV professionals, critics say they’re trying to inject military messaging into art… Closed-door sessions in LA and Paris were held under Chatham House rules, the goal is to “better tell the story” of defense spending… UK writers are reportedly “pretty offended” by the invites, calling the …
The U.S. economy is currently a “hollowed-out” powerhouse. While the 2% GDP surge looks decent on a teleprompter, new data confirms that nearly three-quarters of that growth is just the tech giants frantically buying server racks and H100 chips to avoid falling behind in the AI arms race. Outside the Silicon Valley bubble, the “real” …
The tariff applies to all internal combustion and electric passenger vehicles. Light trucks and SUVs—already at 25% under the “Chicken Tax”—will see additional enforcement of origin rules. Trump announces tariffs on European cars going to 25% next week – claims block 'not complying' with trade deal https://t.co/G5yLqRAR7J pic.twitter.com/pQviq46HHb — New York Post (@nypost) May 1, …
Total Personal Outlays jump $195B in single month as utility and fuel bills spike… Savings Rate craters to 3.6%; consumers “burning through” cash to maintain lifestyle… Wall Street Reacts: Nasdaq futures drop 200 points on “Higher for Much Longer” reality… Bond Market Carnage: 10-year Treasury yield breaches 4.85% as “Pivot” narrative dies… Stats from today’s …
Gasoline price spike with highest percentage increase in more than a month. Now highest price in four years as peace talks fail. Gasoline prices in the United States rose on Tuesday to their highest level in four years as peace talks between the United States and Iran appeared at an impasse. The average cost for …
Live recession oddshttps://t.co/yvED3yZNF6 — NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) April 26, 2026 Grok: Accurate per the American Farm Bureau Federation’s survey (April 3-11, 2026; 5,700+ farmers). 70% say they can’t afford all the fertilizer needed this season due to price spikes. Many plan to cut rates or acres, risking lower 2026 yields. South hit hardest (78%). Full report: …
They keep pushing the no inflation narrative while the actual numbers on food and fuel quietly scream the other direction. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, just made it clear why rates are going lower: “AI is going to make almost everything cost less.We’re at the front end of a productivity boom.Economic growth won’t be …
NOW: Border Patrol Commander Greg Bovino (Ret.) is calling for SURGES of DHS agents to major US cities to FORCE OUT 100 million illegals “Let’s make it SO HARD for them to live, to work, to procreate, to do ANYTHING in the US that they have NO CHOICE but to self-deport” They MUST have incentive …
Foreclosure surge sweeps America: 118,000 homes at risk as families buckle under financial strain A fresh wave of foreclosures is sweeping across the United States, with more than 118,000 homes caught up in the crisis in just the first three months of 2026. It is a grim omen – with echoes of the run up …
BREAKING: Odds Democrats win the Presidency in 2028 surge to an all-time high. pic.twitter.com/y7QAGlTKAd — Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 15, 2026 View post on imgur.com
⚡🇺🇸 US Air Force just kept the skies busy again today with a massive airlift surge into the Middle East… and it is not slowing down. Aircraft moving nonstop. Heavy loads. Strategic movement. This is not routine. Something big is building… and it is happening right now.… pic.twitter.com/LATrLp0vAg — Defense Intelligence (@DI313_) April 14, 2026 …
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have been deemed illegal by the U.S. supreme court, but that doesn’t mean he’s changing his view on the policy tool — far from it. “The TRADE DEFICIT was down 55%, the biggest drop in history,” Trump declared in a recent post on Truth Social (1). “THANK YOU MR. TARIFF!” …
High virus levels detected in wastewater WastewaterSCAN, run by Stanford and Emory, reports elevated national levels for HMPV, rotavirus, influenza B, RSV, norovirus, and COVID. From February to early April, HMPV rose 11% and rotavirus 29%, while COVID dropped 46% overall but the Cicada variant increased 4%. Influenza A fell sharply into medium range, but …
by Martin Armstrong The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 0.4% in February alone and is now running at 2.8% annually, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is still sitting at 3.0%. That is not progress. That is stagnation well above the Fed’s 2% target, and it …
America markets got played by insiders again. * Axios posts story pushed by administration insiders of peace talks, moments after billions in stock futures are bought. * Those stocks are dumped just 20 minutes before explosions heard on Khrag island. Criminal corruption! America markets got played by insiders again. * Axios posts story pushed by …
BREAKING: US stock market futures fall at the open as President Trump declares Tuesday as “Power Plant and Bridge Day" in Iran: 1. S&P 500: -0.7%2. Nasdaq 100: -0.8%3. Dow Jones: -0.7%4. WTI Crude: +3.0%5. Natural Gas: +1.0%6. Gold: -0.9% President Trump's deadline is now… — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 5, 2026 BREAKING: US …
The numbers are in Rep Nancy Mace confronts Governor Tim Walz on Autism spending increases Overall Increase from 2017 to 2024 2017: $1,099,946.52 2024: $343,176,474.78 Total increase: $342,076,528.26 This is a 31,099% INCREASE, or roughly 311 TIMES higher than 2017 levels The numbers are in Rep Nancy Mace confronts Governor Tim Walz on Autism spending …
The war in Iran is, for markets, a hot mess. It’s on, it’s off, it’s getting better, it’s getting worse and pretty much every asset class on the planet is getting bashed around with every new headline like a ping-pong game from hell. Some of this is frankly too exhausting and ultimately too pointless to …
How ATM jackpotting attacks work Instead of asking the bank for permission, the malware overrides that process. It sends its own commands to the machine. The result? The ATM dispenses cash without a card, without an account and without a legitimate transaction. That is jackpotting. Here is the uncomfortable truth. Many ATMs run on aging …
‼️ FERTILIZER PRICES NOW AT NEAR 4 YEAR HIGH—UP 44%. FOOD INFLATION IS COMING – 30% world’s fertilizer supply & 20% oil supply goes thru Hormuz. – It’s planting season now: Rising fuel & fertilizer costs will reverberate through economy & be felt in grocery stores this summer. pic.twitter.com/1pYuYw1fkp — Maine (@TheMaineWonk) March 22, 2026 …
Washington drivers are getting hit from two directions at the gas pump, and there is no relief in sight. The Iran war is sending prices surging nationwide, but Washington drivers are paying nearly $1.21 more per gallon than the average American, and experts say the state’s Climate Commitment Act is a big reason why. The …
Median U.S. gas price jumped 20c/gal overnight with all the price jumps happening in the Midwest, now stands at $3.69/gal. Most common price also $3.69/gal, while second most common price is $3.99/gal. — Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) March 18, 2026 The national average price of gasoline in the US continues to climb toward $4/gal- $3.86 …
Brits must brace for energy RATIONING as Middle East chaos causes shortages, ex-No10 expert warns https://t.co/wcNsfx6Ee3 — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 16, 2026 Brits were today warned they must brace for energy rationing as the Middle East crisis continues. Former No10 energy expert Nick Butler said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by …
Something unusual is happening in the oil market. Crude prices do not normally move this aggressively unless investors believe a major global disruption is coming. Look at the historical pattern. During the Global Financial Crisis, oil surged from roughly $57 to $140 before the economy collapsed. During the COVID-19 pandemic, crude rebounded from about $1 …
Something uncomfortable is starting to show up across several economic headlines at the same time. Fuel prices are climbing again. According to data from AAA, the national average price of gasoline has surged to roughly $3.43 per gallon, after sitting around $2.97 just a week earlier. That is a jump of nearly 50 cents in …
The headlines say inflation is cooling. The official number now sits around 2.4% year over year, the slowest pace since mid-2025, and many economists are celebrating it as proof that price pressures are fading. But if you dig beneath that single number, something very different is happening. And it is not small. It is massive. …
BREAKING: China secretly supplied 50 CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran. During the ongoing war, Iran reportedly launched them, but none hit their targets, either intercepted by the U.S. Navy or failing mid-flight due to technical issues. Chines equipments failing again pic.twitter.com/Om75qY3uSJ — Baba Banaras™ (@RealBababanaras) March 6, 2026 Factcheck: No evidence supports the claim …
