The war in Iran is, for markets, a hot mess. It’s on, it’s off, it’s getting better, it’s getting worse and pretty much every asset class on the planet is getting bashed around with every new headline like a ping-pong game from hell.
Some of this is frankly too exhausting and ultimately too pointless to track. But once the chaos has passed, this episode will leave a lasting mark on investors.
This past Monday illustrated the madness in glorious technicolour. At breakfast time in Europe, investors clearly feared the already hideous conflict in the region was threatening to escalate still further, ramming energy prices higher, hammering inflation-sensitive bonds and biting into stocks.
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Breaking news: The Middle East crisis will fuel a surge in US inflation to 4.2% this year, the highest in the G7, according to an OECD forecast https://t.co/1VLrrL2eK7 pic.twitter.com/kUAMxAKUG4
— Financial Times (@FT) March 26, 2026
(Bloomberg) — The conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of inflation and hobbling the global economy just as it was showing signs of strengthening at the start of the year, the OECD said.
In its updated outlook on Thursday, the Paris-based organization sharply increased its inflation forecasts for major economies and now sees the average rate for the Group of 20 this year jumping to 4% — with an even higher pace in the US — rather than the 2.8% it predicted in December.
Downward adjustments to growth were less dramatic in the short term, but largely because the drag from the Iran war was offset by better-than-expected momentum at the start of the year.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1Zs26j
The writer is US senator for Massachusetts and the ranking Democrat on the Senate committee on banking
Almost a month into Donald Trump’s war with Iran, two things are clear. First, the president has sparked a global conflict that has resulted in the deaths of more than a dozen US service members and wounded hundreds more, while killing thousands of civilians in the region and displacing millions more. Second, Trump’s war threatens to deliver a gut punch to a teetering American economy. If he does not end his war immediately, he risks a recession that will shutter small businesses and toss millions of workers out of their jobs — all while more American troops arrive home in coffins.
The costs of Trump’s war are staggering. The most consequential is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused global oil prices to rise at the fastest rate since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The average gasoline price in the US is now $3.98 — nearly $1 higher than just a month ago. For the average household, the pain at the pump could add up to nearly $750 in extra costs this year.