The biggest test for SpaceX might not be Starship.
It might be simple supply and demand.
After becoming one of the largest IPOs in history, SpaceX is now facing its first major lockup expiration.
And the numbers are ridiculous.
The first major unlock could release around 911.5 million shares.
That’s about 142% of the original IPO-issued shares.
If another price trigger is reached, another 456 million shares could become eligible, pushing the potential unlock to more than twice the IPO share count.
That’s the part that caught my attention.
Everyone wanted to talk about SpaceX reaching a roughly $1.8 trillion IPO valuation, then pushing toward a $2 trillion-plus market value after going public.
Now comes the less exciting part.
POV: Realizing you were exit liquidity for a $3T unprofitable company https://t.co/itIgdnMeON pic.twitter.com/Momfg5c52p
— Noah (@antibearthesis) July 10, 2026
Finding out how many people actually want to sell.
This doesn’t automatically mean SpaceX is overvalued.
Employees selling shares doesn’t mean they stopped believing.
For many insiders, this is the first real chance to turn years of private stock into actual money.
But markets have a funny way of exposing assumptions.
A private valuation can rise because there are limited shares available and everyone wants in.
A public stock has to deal with something different.
Millions of investors can suddenly ask:
“Who is buying from the people who already got rich?”
That is the real test.
The Reddit discussion had an interesting divide.
The bullish argument is obvious.
SpaceX is not being valued like a normal rocket company.
Investors are betting on Starlink, reusable rockets, space infrastructure, AI opportunities, and a future where SpaceX becomes something much bigger than today’s revenue numbers.
The bearish argument is much simpler.
At roughly a $2 trillion valuation, expectations are already enormous.
Some investors are asking how a company with around tens of billions in revenue can justify a valuation comparable to the largest technology companies in the world.
And this is where things get interesting.
A stock doesn’t fall because a company is bad.
Sometimes it falls because the future was already priced in.
SpaceX has built one of the most impressive businesses of the last decade.
But the market is no longer asking whether SpaceX is amazing.
Everyone already knows that.
The question is whether the company can become amazing enough to justify the number investors are paying today.
The first unlock is where we start getting an answer.
Because a valuation is just a prediction.
A flood of sellers meeting a flood of buyers is where reality starts.