Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The biggest test for SpaceX might not be Starship. It might be simple supply and demand. After becoming one of the largest IPOs in history, SpaceX is now facing its first major lockup expiration. And the numbers are ridiculous. The first major unlock could release around 911.5 million shares. That’s about 142% of the original …
US home sellers are retreating from the market: Delistings as a proportion of all US home listings rose to 5.8% in April, the highest since March 2020. Excluding the 2020 pandemic, delistings have never been this high. The absolute number of delistings rose +3.8% MoM, marking the 2nd consecutive monthly increase. Atlanta led among the …
Shortage my ass, it’s all overpriced rate-locked bullshit finally breaking. Insider cheerleaders ignore the pain and push the narrative for another round of bagholders… Sellers are cutting their prices at a record 34.2% rate. The highest level since 2012. But yeah, we have a housing shortage. pic.twitter.com/YObuOrbKJC — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) May 16, 2026 “I …
“Gotcha headline with no supporting data” 🙄 Here’s Redfin’s “record rate” – a total of an entire 10 year study. Super. No doubt prices are coming off, but cmon man …. This is just lazy. pic.twitter.com/1oZkLd8EhG — Matt Carrell (@MatthewCarrell) April 28, 2026 Worst March numbers in 10 years. pic.twitter.com/AP94gn2OK8 — Travis Rothell (@TRothell62855) April …
The housing market is running out of buyers: There were an estimated 46.3% more home sellers than buyers in February 2026, the biggest difference since Redfin data began in 2013. This gap has widened sharply from 29.8% a year ago, marking the strongest market for buyers in over a decade. By comparison, there were a …
US home sellers are increasingly cutting prices: A record 34.2% of home sellers lowered their list price in February, the highest for any February since records began in 2012. Since 2022, the percentage of sellers cutting prices has more than tripled. Sellers who cut prices cut by an average of $40,915, or -7.3%, the highest …
Sellers are moving toward buyers but not fast enough to restore volume the $40k average cut on a median priced home still doesn't close the affordability gap at 7% mortgage rates — Alan Stalcup | CRE Investor (@alan_stalcup) April 9, 2026 Buyers: wait. Rent. Watch. Renegotiate your lease. Sellers: sell sooner rather than later. Every …
A Record 34% of February Home Sellers Cut Their List Price More than one-third (34.2%) of February home sellers lowered their list price. That’s up from 31.5% a year earlier and represents the highest February share in records dating back to 2012. Fed minutes show willingness to consider interest rate increases Some Federal Reserve officials …
by confoundedinterest17 Nothing has been the same in the US housing market since the Covid outbreak of 2020. According to Redfin, there are nearly 50% more home sellers than buyers. And the number of homebuyers has fallen to historic lows. A good reason there are so few buyers is that home prices has soared after the …
We’re just going to pretend this part was normal and “because covid” pic.twitter.com/jn6qHOrh10 — Jeff Rey (@Est1986) March 5, 2026 The all-important spring housing market is off and running, and while the pace isn’t expected to be strong, there are signs of optimism, at least among sellers. Some who gave up last year are jumping …
Home sellers are starting to panic now that real estate deals are collapsing at record levels. Buyers are cancelling contracts, mortgage rates and prices are coming down but its still not enough to get anyone motivated to buy.
by Martin Armstrong Redfin estimates there were 37.2% more home sellers than buyers in November, which is the largest gap since 2013 outside of last summer. The computer warned that the US would experience a buyer’s market until 2028. The imbalance does not translate into some 2008 era real estate crisis, but it highlights the confidence …
"I believe real estate is going to have a very big correction." pic.twitter.com/ZuTW6X5RXj — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) January 2, 2026 What happens to the market when all of these retirees start selling their stocks to fund their retirements? https://t.co/LN6Ct08yeF — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 2, 2026 36.8% more buyers than sellers…. What happens next? pic.twitter.com/7Cy4mcgVSR …
Nasdaq is forming a head & shoulders. Nvidia is forming a bear flag. Amazon is forming a head & shoulders. Microsoft is forming a bear flag. But none of these have broken down yet. Nasdaq is forming a head & shoulders.Nvidia is forming a bear flag.Amazon is forming a head & shoulders.Microsoft is forming a …
Weak buyer demand, weakening home prices and overall uncertainty in the economy are combining to make home sellers change their minds and step out of the market. Close to 85,000 U.S. sellers took their homes off the market in September, up 28% from September 2024 and the highest level for that month in eight years, …
by confoundedinterest17 Yikes! October saw an estimated 36.8% more home sellers than buyers, biggest gap in records dating back to 2013. Last one, promise 😁 pic.twitter.com/1luRsMFlo7 — Hollywood Horror Museum (@horrormuseum) November 25, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 August represents a massive switch from 3 years ago when there were nearly 40% more home buyers and sellers in the US housing market. There are now 35.2% MORE home sellers than buyers!
Sellers in some US metros are growing so frustrated with the state of the housing market they are de-listing their homes at an alarming rate. Beyond slowing sales and flat prices, de-listings have become a defining feature of this summer’s housing market. Nationally, de-listings rose 57 percent in July compared to the same time last …
The mortgage market has been tanking for the last two years, suggesting that the U.S. housing market will continue to struggle in the final months of 2025. Mortgage applications to buy a house, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association, is still 35% below its pre-pandemic levels, and down 55% from the pandemic peak. This …
Redfin: U.S. housing market now 508,715 more home sellers than homebuyers That’s the most home sellers have outmatched homebuyers in over a decade, according to Redfin pic.twitter.com/3kmfduePlh — Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 4, 2025 Lol pic.twitter.com/Y61dW5nuvv — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 3, 2025
The numbers are no longer whispering. They’re screaming. The gap between what homes cost and what Americans earn has never been wider. Not in 2008. Not in 1980. Not even during the COVID frenzy. This is new territory. And it’s cracking. The median home price in the U.S. now sits at $416,900. That’s up over …
The tide has turned. After years of sellers calling the shots, the housing market has finally shifted. Berkshire Hathaway Home Services isn’t whispering it. They’re spelling it out. The market now belongs to the buyers. This isn’t a theory or a forecast. It’s already happening. Inventory has ballooned past 500,000 active listings, the highest level …
LOL, somebody got hit with huge margin call. RIP Silver short sellers pic.twitter.com/eroiL5kztQ — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) June 5, 2025
There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market. Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. Prospective buyers may see their purchasing …
Housing Vacancy has increased 28% since the second quarter of 2022. Despite the claims regarding shortages. Now at 8.2% combined vacancy rate and no sign of slowing. pic.twitter.com/G7vaInermG — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) May 29, 2025 https://t.co/Fc03RBIPF7 pic.twitter.com/gQGpYEv08k — Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) May 29, 2025 The U.S. housing market is facing a dramatic shift, …
Home values are sliding across the country, with Zillow reporting declines in 27 states. The latest data confirms what many homeowners feared—prices are no longer climbing at the breakneck pace seen in previous years. The housing market is shifting, and sellers are feeling the pressure. The biggest drops have been recorded in Florida, Colorado, California, …
1) What's extremely interesting is that home prices, for a very long time, simply tracked the rate of inflation. More specifically, from 1890 to 1990, over 100 years, inflation-adjusted prices never went more than 15% above their long-term trend line. — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 15, 2025 3) And it was in this period that …
The gap between home asking and sale prices is widening: The typical home seller in the US now wants ~$38,672 more than the average buyer is willing to pay, the biggest gap on record. The median asking price hit a record $469,729 in March, or 9% more than the $431,057 median sale price, the largest …
A new report from the Wall Street Journal shows that home sales in the U.S. just collapsed to the lowest level since 2009. This indicates reduced homebuyer demand and increased risk of a housing market correction. CNBC: April active home listings are up 31% YOY. 👀 31% of them had a price reduction. — QE …
The gap between what sellers want for their homes versus what they're selling for just hit its widest level in 5 years 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/xhM6rVTIGa — Barchart (@Barchart) April 30, 2025 CNBC Super real estate agent Ryan Serhant: Spring selling season was good until April. March was great In April things stopped 🛑 36% of all …