SpaceX IPO eyes 2 trillion dollar valuation with massive retail float ready to flood the market

I’ve been following the SpaceX IPO for over 10 years and plan to put a significant amount in and hold for 10–15 years.

That said the current implied valuation already looks very high, and I amm struggling to reconcile it with realistic forward returns. I’m confident in the long-term story, but I’m questioning whether the risk-adjusted upside still justifies the entry price, or if returns are more likely to be solid but not extraordinary (e.g., lower IRR than a typical “home run” outcome).

Curious how you’d think about underwriting it at IPO day market cap. Should we jump on from Day 1 or see 1M-6M performance?

Here is some examples of highest Market Cap stocks, their markets and their performances over time.

Rank	Company	IPO Year	Exchange	IPO Day Mkt Cap	IPO Price	1W	1W %	1M	1M %	1Y	1Y %	Today	Today %
1	Saudi Aramco	2019	Tadawul	~$1.70T	$8.53	$9.40	+10.2%	$9.33	+9.4%	$9.35	+9.6%	~$7.2	-15%
2	Alibaba	2014	NYSE	~$168B	$68	$89.89	+32.2%	$102.94	+51.4%	$79.50	+16.9%	~$130	+91%
3	SoftBank Corp.	2018	Tokyo	~$72B	¥1,500	¥1,282	-14.5%	¥1,250	-16.7%	¥1,465	-2.3%	~¥220	-85%
4	Meta Platforms	2012	NASDAQ	~$104B	$38	$31	-18.4%	$27.72	-27.1%	$24.31	-36%	~$640	+1,580%
5	Visa	2008	NYSE	~$44B	$44	$66	+50%	$62	+40.9%	$85	+93.2%	~$390	+786%
6	General Motors	2010	NYSE	~$50B	$33	$35.50	+7.6%	$36.25	+9.8%	$24.50	-25.8%	~$52	+58%
7	Uber	2019	NYSE	~$82B	$45	$41.60	-7.6%	$43.75	-2.8%	$32.79	-27.1%	~$102	+127%
8	Rivian	2021	NASDAQ	~$77B	$78	$122.99	+57.7%	$104.67	+34.2%	$32.80	-57.9%	~$15	-81%
9	Airbnb	2020	NASDAQ	~$86B	$68	$139.25	+104.8%	$146	+114.7%	$165	+142.6%	~$171	+152%
10	Snowflake	2020	NYSE	~$70B	$120	$253.93	+111.6%	$390	+225%	$315	+162.5%	~$210	+75%
11	Coinbase	2021	NASDAQ	~$86B	$250	$342	+36.8%	$298	+19.2%	$53.7	-78.5%	~$295	+18%
12	Robinhood	2021	NASDAQ	~$32B	$38	$55	+44.7%	$44.5	+17.1%	$13.7	-63.9%	~$61	+61%
13	DoorDash	2020	NYSE	~$39B	$102	$189.5	+85.8%	$175	+71.6%	$131	+28.6%	~$198	+94%
14	Arm Holdings	2023	NASDAQ	~$54B	$51	$63.6	+24.7%	$54.7	+7.2%	$124	+143.1%	~$148	+190%
15	NTT DoCoMo	1998	Tokyo	~$75B	¥3.9M	¥4.5M	+15.4%	¥4.3M	+10.3%	¥2.8M	-28.2%	Delisted	—