SpaceX IPO eyes 2 trillion dollar valuation with massive retail float ready to flood the market

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Insiders and employees salivate to cash out after years locked in, exit liquidity event incoming…

via WSB:

I’ve been following the SpaceX IPO for over 10 years and plan to put a significant amount in and hold for 10–15 years.

That said the current implied valuation already looks very high, and I amm struggling to reconcile it with realistic forward returns. I’m confident in the long-term story, but I’m questioning whether the risk-adjusted upside still justifies the entry price, or if returns are more likely to be solid but not extraordinary (e.g., lower IRR than a typical “home run” outcome).

Curious how you’d think about underwriting it at IPO day market cap. Should we jump on from Day 1 or see 1M-6M performance?

Here is some examples of highest Market Cap stocks, their markets and their performances over time.

Rank Company IPO Year Exchange IPO Day Mkt Cap IPO Price 1W 1W % 1M 1M % 1Y 1Y % Today Today %
1 Saudi Aramco 2019 Tadawul ~$1.70T $8.53 $9.40 +10.2% $9.33 +9.4% $9.35 +9.6% ~$7.2 -15%
2 Alibaba 2014 NYSE ~$168B $68 $89.89 +32.2% $102.94 +51.4% $79.50 +16.9% ~$130 +91%
3 SoftBank Corp. 2018 Tokyo ~$72B ¥1,500 ¥1,282 -14.5% ¥1,250 -16.7% ¥1,465 -2.3% ~¥220 -85%
4 Meta Platforms 2012 NASDAQ ~$104B $38 $31 -18.4% $27.72 -27.1% $24.31 -36% ~$640 +1,580%
5 Visa 2008 NYSE ~$44B $44 $66 +50% $62 +40.9% $85 +93.2% ~$390 +786%
6 General Motors 2010 NYSE ~$50B $33 $35.50 +7.6% $36.25 +9.8% $24.50 -25.8% ~$52 +58%
7 Uber 2019 NYSE ~$82B $45 $41.60 -7.6% $43.75 -2.8% $32.79 -27.1% ~$102 +127%
8 Rivian 2021 NASDAQ ~$77B $78 $122.99 +57.7% $104.67 +34.2% $32.80 -57.9% ~$15 -81%
9 Airbnb 2020 NASDAQ ~$86B $68 $139.25 +104.8% $146 +114.7% $165 +142.6% ~$171 +152%
10 Snowflake 2020 NYSE ~$70B $120 $253.93 +111.6% $390 +225% $315 +162.5% ~$210 +75%
11 Coinbase 2021 NASDAQ ~$86B $250 $342 +36.8% $298 +19.2% $53.7 -78.5% ~$295 +18%
12 Robinhood 2021 NASDAQ ~$32B $38 $55 +44.7% $44.5 +17.1% $13.7 -63.9% ~$61 +61%
13 DoorDash 2020 NYSE ~$39B $102 $189.5 +85.8% $175 +71.6% $131 +28.6% ~$198 +94%
14 Arm Holdings 2023 NASDAQ ~$54B $51 $63.6 +24.7% $54.7 +7.2% $124 +143.1% ~$148 +190%
15 NTT DoCoMo 1998 Tokyo ~$75B ¥3.9M ¥4.5M +15.4% ¥4.3M +10.3% ¥2.8M -28.2% Delisted —