Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Bulls riding this exact setup straight into the meat grinder again. "It's still early" pic.twitter.com/YDQwyRVyNx — Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) May 19, 2026 In the year before the 3/24/2000 peak for the S&P, the top performing decile of stocks gained 439%, while the bottom performing decile fell 49%. In the year following the peak, that top …
Trump weighs special ops raid to snatch nuclear material plus ground assault on Kharg… Strike could drop this weekend, gotta move fast before Putin heads to China… More aggressive round coming, Monday deadline already slipping to sooner… This shit’s about to get real ugly… ‘’Could be as [early] as Monday’’ More than likely this Weekend …
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is reportedly bored with the Iran war. The Atlantic says he's frustrated it's dragged on longer than expected, wants to move on to China trade talks and domestic politics, and keeps getting pulled back because Iran won't negotiate on his terms. This is worth sitting… https://t.co/jiulnfcUWb pic.twitter.com/kRL4ZEzoBR — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 8, …
American consumers have NEVER been this pessimistic about the economy: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8 in April, the lowest reading EVER in over 70 years of polling, with declines occurring across all income levels, ages, and political affiliations. This comes as gasoline prices posted the largest monthly jump in pump …
via run_midnight I started writing this post with a simple question, can RDDT hit a $1 T market cap by 2030? Yesterday, I ended up posting a copy of this with incorrect data. I had to repost to correct the problem, so I apologize. This post will examine RDDT’s revenue growth rate, expense growth rate, …
Michael Burry just bet against the entire semiconductor sector He bought SOXX puts with a $330 strike expiring Jan 2027 while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was posting its 18th straight day of gains (a new record) SOXX was trading $460/462 when he entered. The ETF needs to DROP 28% just to hit the strike. His …
Big tech has used voluntary retirement and buyout programs during prior efficiency cycles and post boom adjustments. Translation: ‘You’re not fired, you’re ‘involuntarily retired’ with a nice package.’ AI doesn’t need pensions. Smart cost-cutting before earnings. Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce Microsoft will offer voluntary buyouts to …
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have been deemed illegal by the U.S. supreme court, but that doesn’t mean he’s changing his view on the policy tool — far from it. “The TRADE DEFICIT was down 55%, the biggest drop in history,” Trump declared in a recent post on Truth Social (1). “THANK YOU MR. TARIFF!” …
JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may unfold over the world. The red lines are oil from the Persian Gulf. Asia: April 1. Europe: April 10. North America: April 15. Australia: April 20. This is a game to see who blinks first. JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may …
Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil 🚨 ISRAEL PREPARING FOR AN EARLY END TO THE WAR WITH IRAN Israeli officials believe the U.S. could soon push for a halt to the war. But based on the pace of American military preparations and coordination, Israel is not impressed that the fighting is actually nearing an end. Inside Israel, Trump’s …
WWIII ALERT: Trump Has Reportedly Given The Green Light To Strike Iran As Early As Sunday!!! Alex Jones Predicts There's A 90% Chance That The US Will Hit Iran This Weekend Or Early Monday Morning If The Iranians Don't Come To The Negotiation Table »WATCH/SHARE THE LIVE X… pic.twitter.com/n38lJ05jVi — Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) February 27, …
Through one week of early voting for Texas primaries, both Dallas County and Tarrant County saw Democrats outpace Republican voters in early turnout. https://t.co/EXN0o00eUz — FOX 4 NEWS (@FOX4) February 23, 2026 Dallas County has seen nearly 78,000 Democrats cast a vote through six days of early voting. That’s more than three times as many …
However, President Trump has not made a final decision. The US is prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, sources say, but Trump has yet to make a final callhttps://t.co/BpCEOvD88O — CNN (@CNN) February 18, 2026 Senior national security officials have informed Trump that the US military would be ready to strike Iran …
AI productivity bubble: Early adopters are already burning out. “There will be a wake up call and a reckoning for entire sectors who are adopting AI.” Natasha Bernal. pic.twitter.com/raHUrKMIgp — Ewan Morrison (@MrEwanMorrison) February 17, 2026 The market is EXTREMELY confused right now. Software like $ADBE and $CRM are getting nuked because of AI risk. …
by Peter Reagan One of the advantages of watching the economy for decades isn’t clairvoyance. It’s pattern recognition. If you’ve ever cooked pancakes long enough, you know when one is about to burn – not because you can see the future, but because you’ve seen the signs before. The bubbles change. The smell shifts. The …
via confoundedinterest17 The gap between 2s and 10s Treasuies is now the widest it’s been since early 2022. According to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now report, the current real GDP growth rate is 3.7%. But the yield curve is a forward looking measure.
by Michael One of the keys to being successful in life is a strong work ethic. No matter where you find yourself, if you are willing to work hard you are more likely to get ahead. This is something that I have studied for many years. Tom Brady, Michael Jordan and Jerry Rice were all …
This country’s values have become seriously warped but when affordability becomes unattainable for 80% of the country this is what happens. 🤦♂️ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 14, 2026 You obviously can't read the fucking room >record low tax rates>major layoffs>ai is taking jobs while they just got tax break>no one can afford a fucking …
A perturbed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told President Trump late Sunday that the federal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair “made a mess” and could be bad for financial markets, two sources familiar with the call told Axios. Why it matters: Bessent’s worries about the financial fallout were somewhat realized Monday, when the dollar dropped …
For private sector jobs, a low(er-)hire, but (still) low-fire market: • Vacancy rate ticked down to 4.5% in November, matching a cycle low • Hiring rate ticked down to 3.5% in November, matching a cycle low • The job-quitting rate ticked up one tenth to 2.2% (off of a cycle… pic.twitter.com/EeKTPGbVy9 — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) …
They keep telling people everything is fine while quietly shoving emergency cash into the system like it is a house fire at 3 a.m. When banks start dumping mortgage paper just to get overnight money, that is not confidence, that is panic dressed up as plumbing. The scary part is not the headlines you see, …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Investor made famous by ‘The Big Short’ is shorting Nvidia and Palantir. The Big Short Yet Again? The Wall Street Journal reports Michael Burry Bets He Isn’t Too Early to Go Against the AI Juggernaut Michael Burry has seen this movie before. Take, for instance, the scene in “The Big …
When CAPEX history meets nosebleed valuations, the only direction for risk is down. “What lower short term rates have done is keep stock prices elevated & valuations stretched. That distortion shows up clearly in the data. The $SPY currently trades near ~25× forward earnings, well above its long-term median closer to ~16×” FULL ANALYSIS BELOW! …
“We’re standing at the edge of a market reckoning that will leave 2007-2008 looking like a footnote. The longest bull market in history doesn’t end quietly. Consider this your final warning. Heading into 2026 the underlying stress in financial markets is clearer than most headlines suggest. Regional banks still carry significant commercial real estate exposure …
🪐 Fresh processed view of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS from NEOSSat(December 15, 2025).Those tight concentric rings reveal the super-dense central coma, with smooth layered outflow and the persistent sunward structure still going strong#3IATLAS #InterstellarComet #Comet #Space pic.twitter.com/ADD19WtftL — Mah Noor Baloch (@Baloch1082) December 16, 2025 “Understanding ISO origins provides a deeper context for interpreting their physical …
Shah’s husband and two adult sons were seen picking her up, hugging her after she served just 33 months of her 78 month original sentence.
🚨NEW: @ScottAdamsSays ends show early due to feeling unwell — but says he'll be okay🙏 "I need to take a nap. I had a really tough night and a tough morning. I thought I could get through it this morning, but I can't." "I'll be fine … I just need to rest. And I will …
Markets, especially the major financial stocks globally, have begun to respond to dramatically altered liquidity prospects. Marketplace liquidity is mercurial, especially late in the cycle. Market blowoffs fueled by speculative leverage guarantee acute liquidity instability. On the upside, self-reinforcing speculation and leveraging propagate liquidity overabundance and the perception of endless liquidity. But speculative melt-ups set …
This is exactly why futures whipsaw right before the open — sentiment vs liquidity is never aligned.I’ll take the actual order flow over the overnight emotions every time. — Nafees Khaiser | HedgeLong Wealth (@fees75) November 24, 2025 It’s amazing to me how much a .25% point rate cut from the Fed can have on …
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Saturday he would like to see Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resume her political career at some point, despite their recent falling out. Trump’s comments came the day after Greene, one of the best-known faces in the Republican arena, made the stunning announcement that she will resign in January. In …