AI productivity bubble already showing cracks. Early AI adopters warn of burnout and reckoning. The market is EXTREMELY confused right now.

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The market is EXTREMELY confused right now.

Software like $ADBE and $CRM are getting nuked because of AI risk.

But also $AMZN and $MSFT are getting punished for going all in on the AI buildout.

Even $AMD and $NVDA are well below all time highs, and they’re just the picks and shovels.

Meanwhile $WMT, a company with 4% revenue growth, is trading at 45 PE!?

So is AI happening or not?

The market is just as confused with macro data.

Are we adding jobs or not? Who knows how much the numbers will be revised.

If we do add jobs thats a good thing right? The economy is doing well… but then we won’t get rate cuts.

It seems like everything is in conflict.

For the last time: do not let these tech bros bullshit you.

These things are not alive, they are not “conscious”; they are not even “thinking”.

They are language models: elaborate, friendly search engines that only know the data they have access to and have been trained on.

They will produce any research outcome you ask for.

And if they can’t find the data, they will often hallucinate it, because their mandate is to produce some form of output and never admit, “I don’t know”.

In fact, the first and shortest way you would know that an AI is actually “thinking” is if it can admit it doesn’t know something.

The beginning of wisdom are the words, “I don’t know”.

That level of self-awareness is not even possible for a machine.

They are the fanciest search engine you ever used.

Nothing more.