For private sector jobs, a low(er-)hire, but (still) low-fire market:
• Vacancy rate ticked down to 4.5% in November, matching a cycle low
• Hiring rate ticked down to 3.5% in November, matching a cycle low
• The job-quitting rate ticked up one tenth to 2.2% (off of a cycle… pic.twitter.com/EeKTPGbVy9
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 7, 2026
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers posted far fewer jobs in November than the previous month, a sign that employers aren’t yet ramping up hiring even as growth has picked up.
Businesses and government agencies posted 7.1 million open jobs at the end of November, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down from 7.4 million in October. Layoffs also dropped, however, as companies appear to be holding onto workers even as they are reluctant to add staff.
The report suggests that the “low-hire, low-fire” job market remains in effect, with workers enjoying some job security but those out of work struggling to find new jobs. The moribund labor market stands in contrast with data showing solid economic growth, which topped 4% at an annual rate in last year’s July-September quarter, the latest data available. Economists forecast growth slowed but remained solid in the final three months of 2025.
A key question for this year is whether hiring will pickup to match healthy growth, or whether sluggish job gains will eventually drag down the economy. There is a third possibility: Automation and artificial intelligence could enable steady economic growth without creating many jobs.
After years of steep increases, renters are finally seeing sustained price relief, a trend that appears to be carrying into early 2026.
In November, the median asking rent across the 50 largest U.S. metro areas was $1,693, down about 1% from a year earlier and marking the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year declines, according to Realtor.com listings data. Nationally, the median rent fell to $1,367, down 1.1% from a year earlier, according to Apartment List’s data.
November is typically the slowest month for rentals, but rents fell more from October to November this year than they did over the same period last year, according to Apartment List.
With new apartment supply still hitting the market, rents are expected to remain lower into 2026.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/26/rents-are-falling-in-these-major-us-cities-heading-into-2026.html
So we have the NFP and the SCOTUS tariff ruling on Friday and VIX is at 14-handle.
Very high conviction bet on “Nothing ever happens.”
— Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) January 6, 2026
Rents coming down change the entire real estate game.
Nobody has really understood this yet.
— Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) January 7, 2026