Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Beijing cracks open on producer prices, China PPI surges 1.7 percent mom and ends the deflation run, last domino falls hard into 2026. 1.7 percent mom producer price spike ends the long deflation party, China factories crank costs higher, last domino tumbles while global buyers get the bill. They swore deflation was permanent, now look …
🇺🇸 U.S. Consumer sentiment falls to lowest reading on record pic.twitter.com/yHT0zCSdNI — Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) May 8, 2026 Consumer sentiment falls to fresh record low in May as surging gas prices hit outlook Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to …
Total Personal Outlays jump $195B in single month as utility and fuel bills spike… Savings Rate craters to 3.6%; consumers “burning through” cash to maintain lifestyle… Wall Street Reacts: Nasdaq futures drop 200 points on “Higher for Much Longer” reality… Bond Market Carnage: 10-year Treasury yield breaches 4.85% as “Pivot” narrative dies… Stats from today’s …
We just found out the guy who charged the President’s dinner calls himself a “federal assassin”.. He managed to sprint 60 feet and reach the stairs to the ballroom before anyone stopped him.. The security layout was a disaster and the DC elites are lucky they aren’t planning funerals today.. While Washington handles that mess.. …
Past periods of rising small business uncertainty led to hiring slowdowns and reduced capital spending due to weaker demand visibility and tighter credit conditions US small businesses are highly concerned about the economy: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped -3.0 points in March, to 95.8, the lowest since April 2025. This marks the 3rd …
Mortgage rates moved even higher again last week, as the war with Iran continues to stoke fears of inflation. As a result, total mortgage application volume fell again, down 10.4% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan …
$GLD is sitting at oversold levels with RSI under 30 while the dollar trades below 100. That combination doesn’t make fundamental sense. Gold down, dollar down, fear at 14.9. This is the “sell what you can, not what you want” phase. Margin calls don’t care about your thesis. March 2020, gold dropped 12% in a …
Over 330,000 Federal employees have been fired, resigned, or retired last year and were not replaced. The Federal workforce is now at its lowest level since 1966. pic.twitter.com/cRu6x8XAS4 — Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) February 15, 2026 Based on OPM data and analyses, the reduction of ~317,000 federal employees in 2025 yields estimated annual savings of …
BREAKING: January CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation fell to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021. Odds of further interest rate cuts are back on the rise. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 13, 2026 🚨 TRADERS …
Stocks dropped on Thursday as investors began to worry about the negative side of the artificial intelligence buildout, which threatens to disrupt the business models of whole industries and raise unemployment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 669.42 points, or 1.34%, to end at 49,451.98. The index was led lower by Cisco Systems , which …
Chipotle stock falls -11% after reporting another sharp drop in restaurant traffic byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Chipotle confirmed that fewer people are visiting its restaurants — a trend that has now lasted an entire year. Traffic dropped again in Q4. Same‑store sales declined 2.5% in the quarter. Full‑year 2025 same‑store sales fell 1.7%, the first annual decline …
JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $81,000 Nearly $1,000,000,000 liquidated from the crypto market in the past 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/mdQ6JRoawy — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) January 31, 2026 Seems XLM (Stellar) and a small mention of XRP in Epstein Docs … Pretty bad look for BTC at the moment … When people find out who really built it …
March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) today is down -269 (-6.07%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) is down -198 (-6.40%). Cocoa prices are sharply lower today, with London cocoa plunging to a 2.25-year nearest-futures low. Abundant global supplies and falling demand are keeping cocoa prices under pressure. Last Friday, NY cocoa sank to a …
Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980. The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination. However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits. Metals were also under pressure as the dollar spiked …
JUST IN – Barcelona commuter train crashes after a retaining wall falls onto the tracks, just two days after a separate fatal train collision killed at least 42 people in southern Spain. pic.twitter.com/LWQbUDxxiZ — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 20, 2026 Train driver killed and several people injured after train derails near Barcelona, local media report https://t.co/QdSKEGZt7w …
Neera Tanden believes that ICE agents chased a protester dressed in Viking gear and sitting in a bath tub with skateboard wheels down the street, and that the Air Force was called in in response. Certain segments of the population just are not equipped to handle obvious AI slop. https://t.co/iFRO0Uj2U9 pic.twitter.com/HpUmJcB2w4 — Jerry Dunleavy IV …
SOFR reflects the cost of overnight borrowing collateralized by Treasuries. When SOFR drops, it usually signals: Excess cash in the repo market Lower demand for overnight borrowing More Treasury collateral available Money‑market funds accepting lower yields ecb also already started QEhttps://t.co/xcMp97Zo8Z — Filip Spasevski (@FilipsMoneyX) January 13, 2026
via notayesmanseconomics It is time to look East again as there is a lot of economic news from China. We can start with something that has become awfully familiar as we have observed the bursting of the property market bubble. China Vanke Co. is preparing a debt restructuring plan at the request of authorities, people …
For private sector jobs, a low(er-)hire, but (still) low-fire market: • Vacancy rate ticked down to 4.5% in November, matching a cycle low • Hiring rate ticked down to 3.5% in November, matching a cycle low • The job-quitting rate ticked up one tenth to 2.2% (off of a cycle… pic.twitter.com/EeKTPGbVy9 — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) …
HOLY SMOKES. Scott Jennings DESTROYED this socialist who believes in a “wealth tax”🔥🔥 SCOTT: “What is the number that makes you too rich?” VIGELAND: “I, that is not, my, dec-, my, uh, uh, uh, uh, that’s not for me to decide! I wanna raise taxes on the wealthy, top 1%” 🤡 SCOTT: “Put me down …
Everything’s lining up for a Q1 shock. THE YEN PARADOX 82,640 contracts betting against the yen. Second highest since July 2024. The Bank of Japan just confessed this morning they have barely begun. After hiking to a 30 YEAR HIGH at 0.75 percent, the yen did not strengthen. It collapsed to 157.77. Finance Minister Katayama …
Shale growth hit a wall and the oil market just woke up US shale oil production has turned negative yoy for the first time in history That matters. Oil bull markets are born when depletion overwhelms new supply. Once new production can’t offset decline rates, prices do the work. Every cycle looks different… but the …
Just recycled claims that were already walked back by the person who made them. The only thing getting passed around is outrage pretending to be evidence. When there’s nothing there, people start yelling louder to make it feel real. Ah yes. Sarah Ransome’s statements… I wonder why you don’t post everything she said. Remember when …
An initial reading of third-quarter gross domestic product showed the US economy expanded at an inflation-adjusted annualized rate of 4.3%, a far faster pace than the 3.8% recorded in the second quarter, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday. That’s the fastest growth rate in two years. An acceleration in consumer spending, up 3.5% from …
The DOJ on Monday released shocking footage that appeared to be a recreation of Jeffrey Epstein’s suicide in his Manhattan jail cell — and it briefly set the internet on fire until it was revealed to be fake. The video was posted without explanation to the Justice Department’s website as part of its Epstein file dump — …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought an update for my main economic theme for China. New home prices fell 0.4 per cent month on month on average across 70 cities, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The decline eased slightly from a 0.5 per cent fall in October, but …
The Legacy Media’s NEGATIVE Coverage: Rahmanullah Lakanwal: 85% RFK Jr: 94% JD Vance: 88% Elon Musk: 96% Kash Patel: 97% Kristi Noem: 87% Tulsi Gabbard: 98% Pete Hegseth: 100% President Trump: 92% So telling… The Legacy Media is the enemy of the people. The Legacy Media’s NEGATIVE Coverage: Rahmanullah Lakanwal: 85% RFK Jr: 94%JD Vance: …
Text translation: BITCOIN EXTENDS LOSSES TO $95K AFTER CLOSING BELOW $100K FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 190 DAYS BITCOIN ESTENDE PERDAS PARA $95K APÓS FECHAR ABAIXO DOS $100K PELA PRIMEIRA VEZ EM 190 DIAS pic.twitter.com/8fG6sxUZKu — Felipe Demartini (@namcios) November 14, 2025 It’s toast. The XRP people were totally right about buttcoin being useless and …
It started small. A pill for seizures that quietly moved into everything else. Back pain. Hot flashes. Restless nights. One drug that keeps finding new problems to solve, even the ones it was never built for. “What do hot flashes, back pain, and insomnia have in common? Increasingly, they all lead to the same prescription: …