Past periods of rising small business uncertainty led to hiring slowdowns and reduced capital spending due to weaker demand visibility and tighter credit conditions
US small businesses are highly concerned about the economy:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped -3.0 points in March, to 95.8, the lowest since April 2025.
This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly decline, bringing the gauge below its 52-year average of 98.0.
The last… pic.twitter.com/bSBXTYuIed
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 16, 2026
Here is where it gets interesting:
Up until this week, the S&P 500 looked deja vu of last April – a short-covering rally back to the 200 dma, which was followed by escalation, last year and this year. But whereas last year the market went straight down, this year it went… pic.twitter.com/UFzAevH44N
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 15, 2026
St. Louis Fed’s Musalem overnight joins the hawkish chorus, admitting oil shocks will keep core inflation pinned at 3% through year-end; the Fed is effectively moving the goalposts, preparing the market for “higher for longer” as energy costs become a structural fixture.