Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Past periods of rising small business uncertainty led to hiring slowdowns and reduced capital spending due to weaker demand visibility and tighter credit conditions US small businesses are highly concerned about the economy: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped -3.0 points in March, to 95.8, the lowest since April 2025. This marks the 3rd …
U.S. stocks spiked and oil dropped off today; But I don't get the reason for the optimism. What changed? What do the insiders know that we don't?pic.twitter.com/ehCQE7WPvD https://t.co/ouB6hne9sp — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 31, 2026 Look at a pic of my news feed and tell me how anyone is supposed to make sense of this? …
The 28-point plan hammered out by US and Russian envoys and put to Ukraine this week came with a deadline and an implicit threat: Sign up or face the risk of being abandoned. US President Donald Trump said Friday that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky would “have to like” the US plan, suggesting he is in …
New home sales in China collapsed by 42% in October when compared to last October, representing more than just another setback for the beleaguered Chinese real estate market, the world’s largest asset class. This is a major problem for Chinese banks, not that they were expecting different. So, we see interest rates are back to …
Holy Shit guys the Times is hiring Redditors pic.twitter.com/pXLrBylFGX — GBR (@GayBearRes) August 10, 2025 Sam Altman says Gen Z are the “luckiest kids in history” thanks to AI. That’s not optimism. That’s propaganda. “I would feel like the luckiest kid in all of history.” — Sam Altman, August 2025 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/sam-altman-says-gen-z-are-the-luckiest-kids-in-history-thanks-to-ai-despite-mounting-job-displacement-dread/ar-AA1KfWxE He made the claim …
Snowflake debuted at roughly 100× revenue valuation at its IPO, even though it was doubling revenue annually. Palantir meanwhile is clocking in at around 30% annual growth—a sharp disparity. Investors are now questioning how PLTR earned wildly higher multiples given slower expansion. https://www.businessinsider.com/palantir-q2-earnings-preview-pltr-stock-price-outlook-ai-forecast-2025-8 Palantir’s Q2 revenue surged 48% to $1 billion, boosted by U.S. government contracts …
Nvidia did the heavy lifting during the market rebound since April. Failure to make new highs at this point means the market is heading down $NVDA pic.twitter.com/NzCOvtlWvo — The Maverick of Wall Street (@TheMaverickWS) June 1, 2025 The unemployment rate for adults aged 22-27 is 5.3% vs the national rate of 4.2%. Historically it’s always …
US executives are getting more concerned about the economy: The share of S&P 500 companies mentioning “recession” during their Q1 2025 earnings calls spiked to 23%, the highest since 2022. This percentage has surpassed levels recorded in all years between 2008 and 2020, except for 2010. Additionally, 62% of US CEOs expect either a slowdown …
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1879287185138163932
History suggests the recent uninversion of the 10y-2y chart portends a recession to begin soon…. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CyYI Rest of world going down fast as we speak. look under your desk. will drag US down. decoupling is fantasy. The government funded distractions always hit when they're about to crash markets — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 2, 2025 Locals …
Once again, the disconnect between what the stock market is hoping and what the consumer is telling us, is striking. Retail inventories are climbing month after month, and revisions are upward. The consumer is spending less and less and retail inventory levels are climbing… https://t.co/bBT0uZf6Ym — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 27, 2024 That’s just …
"Ottawa Sharpens the Axe" Thousands of federal public servants brace for potential layoffs as Ottawa targets $15.8B in budget cuts. 🪓 pic.twitter.com/IsYAPpTBoa — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) December 24, 2024 1/ RE/MAX predicts a 5% national price increase in 2025, with GTA real estate maintaining its strength. But numbers alone don't tell the full story. Let’s peel …
MSTR’s issuance relies on NAV premium and implied volatility, which would flatten without them. TLDR: MSTR sells shares at 2.3x NAV, making the sale accretive by buying BTC at a premium. Convertible bonds sold with 65% delta offer 1.5 BTC of buying power from the delta. Convertibles priced at 100 implied volatility, 13% premium over …
Druckenmiller recently announced at a conference that he is shorting U.S. Treasury bonds, and these bets now account for 15% to 20% of his portfolio. https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/20/does-stanley-druckenmiller-know-something-wall-str/ ✅Market optimism on inflation is ‘misleading’ byu/Fun_Balance_1809 inu_Fun_Balance_1809 Inflation is not dead, it’s just resting LONDON, Oct 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Over the past three years inflation has gone …
by confoundedinterest17 Communications breakdown! As Harris wordsalads her vision of the economy saying small businesses are the backbone of the US economy, but small businesses aren’t feeling it. Small business optimism remains below 100 at 91.5. Perhaps the themesong of Harris/Walz should be “economy breaker.” Or former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown’s livin’, lovin’ maid.
Investing.com– Gold prices hit record highs in Asian trade on Tuesday, extending a recent run of gains amid persistent optimism over U.S. interest rate cuts, with focus turning to more upcoming cues this week. Among industrial metals, copper prices rose sharply after the Chinese government announced a barrage of stimulus measures, raising hopes of an …
FedEx CEO says “The magnitude of the Fed rate cuts . . . signals the weakness of the current environment,” as priority shipments between businesses, a bell-weather of the economy, dropped FedEx reported a steep quarterly profit drop and lowered its full-year revenue forecast on Thursday after its customers continued to trade down from speedy, …
AAII bulls up to 52.7% – highest level of this year and 2nd highest level since early 2021. Optimism is elevated, but risks become more acute when the crowd heads for the exits pic.twitter.com/0foZRmidNi — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 19, 2024 356 companies have filed for bankruptcy this year, higher than in the pandemic …
With small business optimism plummeting to an 11-year low, exacerbated by surging inflation and a shrinking labor force due to post-COVID government benefits, concerns mount about the economic landscape. As rents rise, hiring plans falter, and easy money policies end, a challenging environment emerges where success becomes increasingly elusive. Small business optimism hits fresh 11 …
The outlook for small business sales is beginning to decline, historically signaling a challenging macroeconomic environment. The Small Business Optimism Index plummeted to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the third consecutive decline and the 50th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Small biz sales outlook starting to deteriorate… Historically …
NEW: Gold hits new record high on Fed rate cut bets https://t.co/gHbUVRlwig — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) April 1, 2024 🟡 GOLD 🟡 pic.twitter.com/QLS9PG7BBg — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 1, 2024 GOLD 🟡 & SILVER ⚪️ 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/xJRymPgsCq — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 1, 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00 World Gold Council: Why Are Gold Prices Rising? …
Very bearish chart. Finding good ‘quality labour’ is no longer a problem in the US. Sharp increase in labour supply is underway (as per today’s NFIB report). Not what a soft landing looks like pic.twitter.com/KyA51rL28w — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) March 12, 2024 US NFIB has declined 0.5 points to 89.4This is the sixth decline in …
Optimism in the US banking industry is being threatened by a growing pile of bad loans, putting pressure on the sector’s biggest players. Bloomberg analysts say non-performing loans, or loans to debtors that haven’t made a payment in over 90 days, rose to a combined $24.4 billion in the last quarter of 2023 for JPMorgan …
via phys.org: A behavioral economist at the University of Bath in the U.K. has found evidence linking higher levels of unwarranted financial optimism with lower levels of cognitive ability. In his study, published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Chris Dawson surveyed thousands of people in the U.K. about their economic outlook and compared their responses …
US consumer confidence is soaring to a two-year high as a robust job market and easing inflation foster renewed optimism. pic.twitter.com/hbr0xT2Agm — Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) July 25, 2023 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-hits-highest-level-in-two-years-155813210.html We shall see how confident many consumers are when student loan payments resume. My bet is that stores valuing low prices will be able to ride …
The third OPEC+ oil cut. Oil ended down on the news. Sign of an extremely weak global economy. pic.twitter.com/Ic3kgQWpFf — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 3, 2023 Optimism around the Chinese consumer has faded following the re-opening A weakening Chinese economy is a major red flag for the global economy pic.twitter.com/8sDZ0BweP2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 3, …
