Recession talk spikes on S&P 500 earnings calls. CEO survey shows 62 percent brace for slowdown or worse. Small business optimism drops fourth month to 95.8

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US executives are getting more concerned about the economy:

The share of S&P 500 companies mentioning “recession” during their Q1 2025 earnings calls spiked to 23%, the highest since 2022.

This percentage has surpassed levels recorded in all years between 2008 and 2020, except for 2010.

Additionally, 62% of US CEOs expect either a slowdown or a recession over the next 6 months, according to the Chief Executive Group’s April survey of 329 US CEOs and business owners.

14% of respondents said they anticipate a severe recession.

Are more layoffs coming this year?


$QQQ to put this rally into perspective, we have matched the covid crash recovery. That is 28% in 26 bars off the lows.

It’s worth noting the differences in the economic landscape. Rates were 0% then, now 4.25%. Student loan payments paused, now restarted. Fed flooded system with QE, now running QT. Fiscal stimulus via stimulus checks, now various welfare benefits being cut/reduced.

More differences can be named of course, but this is another example of why getting caught up studying fundamentals/macros while ignoring charts can be very costly in the very short term.

At the same time fundamentals need to be there to sustain a move (in either direction). Question now is will these underlying economic conditions matter again. And if so, when?