If we’re not in a recession, it would be the first time this UMichigan survey question on expected change in unemployment missed at this level

GOLDMAN: “.. the expected change in the unemployment rate over the next year has never been this bad outside recessionary periods since the University of Michigan started asking the question in 1978.” https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3m3p56fas7k2r If you're curious how the economy is …

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Worst Dallas Fed manufacturing survey since 2020 – New orders collapse. Prices paid soars… No resolution to the event driving the plunge.

Worst Dallas Fed manufacturing survey since 2020: New orders collapse.Prices paid soars. There’s a term for this. It’s called ‘margin compression’, and it’s deflationary for asset prices. pic.twitter.com/5HmmYd57T2 — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 28, 2025 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index …

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Peter Schiff: Philly Fed survey plunges to -16.4; rising costs, falling revenues signal stagflation. Jim Bianco: If bonds lose faith in the Fed, yields will surge.

The December Philly Fed Manufacturing survey was another disaster, collapsing from -5.5 to -16.4, versus an expected rise to +2.8. This is the weakest level of the year. More problematic, prices paid jumped while prices received fell. All signs point …

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SCE Labor Market Survey: The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks rose to 28.4% from 19.4% in July 2023, highest since March 2014. The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next four months reached a series high.

Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/ TLDRS: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey reveals significant changes in the job market, with 28.4% of individuals actively searching for jobs, the highest level since the survey’s inception in 2014. The …

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Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise In Latest MBA Survey But Still Down -11% Since Same Week Last Year (MBS Convexity Rising As Rates Decline)

by confoundedinterest17 The slowing US economy has a silver lining: Treasury and mortgage rates are declining. And the is spurring faster mortgage prepayments. Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s …

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Ukrainian trust in Zelensky at wartime low: survey

Ukrainians’ trust in President Volodymyr Zelensky has fallen below 60 percent for the first time since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, according to a leading poll published Friday. Zelensky has faced many challenges in the past year, including a failed summer counteroffensive, a …

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