SCE Labor Market Survey: The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks rose to 28.4% from 19.4% in July 2023, highest since March 2014. The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next four months reached a series high.

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Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/

TLDRS:

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey reveals significant changes in the job market, with 28.4% of individuals actively searching for jobs, the highest level since the survey’s inception in 2014.
  • The rise in job searches was particularly pronounced among those over 45, without a college degree, and with household incomes below $60,000.
  • Only 88% of those employed four months ago remained with the same employer, a record low, while the rate of switching employers increased to 7.1%.
  • Despite more active job searches, the proportion of individuals receiving job offers remained stable at 19.4%, and the average wage for full-time offers slightly decreased to $68,905.
  • Job satisfaction has declined across several areas, including wage compensation (down to 56.7%), non-wage benefits (56.3%), and promotion opportunities (44.2%), with notable dissatisfaction among women, those without a college degree, and lower-income respondents.
  • The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer rose to 11.6%, and the likelihood of becoming unemployed increased to 4.4%, the highest since the series began.
  • Expectations for working beyond retirement age have increased, with 48.3% of respondents expecting to work past age 62 and 34.2% beyond age 67, reversing a decline seen since the pandemic began.
  • To fix one end of their mandate (price stability) from the inflation problem they created, the Fed will continue sacrificing employment (the other end of their mandate) to bolster price stability by continuing to hold or even increasing interest rates–causing further stress to businesses and households.
  • I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket.

 

 

 

h/t Dismal-Jellyfish

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