Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This chart shows the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. within the next 12 months, based on Wall Street Journal surveys of economists from 2023 to 2025. The data points reflect the average response in each survey. In early 2023, the likelihood was around 60%. It gradually declined through 2023 and 2024, hitting a …
“Stock markets to fall 50% or more as gold and silver rise by hundreds of percent. Quite a few people disagreeing with the attached post, and even saying 0% chance. Please study the evidence. It’s becoming highly likely” Stock markets to fall 50% or more as gold and silver rise by hundreds of percent. Quite …
Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/ TLDRS: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey reveals significant changes in the job market, with 28.4% of individuals actively searching for jobs, the highest level since the survey’s inception in 2014. The rise in job searches was particularly pronounced among those over 45, without a college degree, …
The Mel Rule, which is based on state-level data, has been triggered, indicating a potential recession. This rule is similar to the Sahm Rule, but it focuses on state-specific unemployment rates. When state-level unemployment rates rise by 0.5 percentage point or more over a three-month period, it signals a likely recession. The idea behind this approach is …
Banking rollercoaster: From denial to acknowledgment, uncertainty surrounds likelihood of commercial bank failures. Real estate magnate Barry Sternlicht has sounded the alarm on the challenges facing the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, particularly the office market, labeling it an “existential crisis.” Sternlicht estimates that the $3 trillion asset class is now likely worth around $1.8 …
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich to the show for a riveting conversation. Peter underscores his belief that the much-anticipated recession hasn’t yet arrived due to rampant money creation and continuous borrowing. He challenges the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data, believing its reported market conditions to be milder than reality. He spotlights the increasing number …
by bitkogan Based on 12-month Federal Reserve rate futures, the market expects the rate to be around 4% by the end of 2024. This is a plausible scenario. However, futures on rates have their nuances. Even when investors correctly predict the direction of rate changes (which isn’t always the case), they often underestimate the speed …
It’s probably going to get worse for a while before it gets better. I don't think we are being told the truth about true economic data like inflation or jobs numbers 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/L6xrm2sBpp — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) October 20, 2023 Stock market valuations stand at one of the three great bubble extremes in U.S. …
JPMORGAN: “.. there is now a higher likelihood of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months, the severity of which could be higher than [markets] anticipate. Risks of an interest rate shock .. are clear: consumer credit .. funding of startups .. impact on employment ..” [Kolanovic] pic.twitter.com/PvXkzsZA2Z — Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September …