Economists now see a 45% likelihood of a US recession occurring in the next 12 months, up from 22% at the start of the year

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This chart shows the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. within the next 12 months, based on Wall Street Journal surveys of economists from 2023 to 2025. The data points reflect the average response in each survey.
  • In early 2023, the likelihood was around 60%.
  • It gradually declined through 2023 and 2024, hitting a low of about 25% in early 2025.
  • By the April 2025 survey, the likelihood spiked to 45%.

 

h/t RobertBartus